The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted that an above average Atlantic huricane seacon for 2025.

Now that the season is winding down, we are able to start concluding and summarizing the season: it’s going to come in as near normal activity. The forecast made earlier this year was a bit on the hyped side.

Huricane season forecasts have not really improved, despite all the claims that models are better than ever:

“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”

NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicted a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The agency forecast a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 were forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).

Near average season

According to data from the Univestity of Colorado, the season is now slghtly above average (November 7) in terms of accumulated cyclone energy:

Source: University of Colorado. 

Though more activity may occur before the end of the month, currently there are no signs of tropical storms in the Atlantic.

Global overall trend

Alarmists have claimed tropical storm activity would increase with the onset of global warming. Though the globe has warmed over the past 50 years, global cyclone activity has not escalated as feared:

Twleve-month running average counts of global hurricanes (top) and major hurricanes (bottom), 1980 to March 10, 2025. Source: Ryan Maue.

Quite to the contrary, the overall trend has been somewhat downard since 1990, with no real trend since 1970:

Total annual global ACE (which integrates frequency and intensity) 1970 to March 10, 2025. Source: Ryan Maue.

The reality hasn’t cooperated with the alarmist climate hype. It’s been a disapoointing season for catastrophe prophets.