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Hurricane History today is Katrina shown above.
Katrina's EYE over my house in Miami!!
Great memories though we had no power again.
We sat outside in the yard in the eye watching
parrots together in pairs flying about.
There was damage, there was debris....
....but she formed "close in"
so we had a different Katrina....
than Nola & Mississippi got
Tell that to someone that had a tree..
..crash onto their roof trapping them inside.
They don't take lightly to me saying
Katrina was "kind" to us in Miami
vs Nola but that's true
Tho.......
It's important to remember that Katrina went through Nola with little damages (amazingly as I watched in shock on TV happy to see....) and then there was the levee failure and it became a slow motion disaster before our eyes. A horrible disaster there, a powerful Major Hurricane not a developing hurricane as it was in Miami but even in Miami it had a powerful punch for a Cat 1 Hurricane. Every hurricane has it's dangers after Cat 1 Irene people were electrocuted when they walked into puddles with their poor pooch that also died as well as the neighbors child that went along to walk the dog. Seriously, every hurricane has it's own danger, remember that be they "weak" or "wild" they all bring inherent dangers. Nuff Hurricane History for today.
Today's question is:
Is Dolly developing in the deep tropics?
Or MDR or Close in?
Let's talk on 96L
Dreams of Dolly are Red Hot Today it seems.
96L is 70% in 2 days & 7 days!
95L is 40% not much to think on.
Does 96L get the Dolly name soon?
Maybe....
Lots to say and I'm going to do this in parts and then give my own thoughts. When we have so many models it becomes "how to we translate all this data" as it's a dizzying data display that greets us each day. So here's a satellite image that's up on Mike's page.
Let's say 96L developed quickly!
Becomes Dolly 1 2 3 OMG!
or 95L becomes Dolly?
Then 96L is E storm
Zoom Earth above.
95L would scoop up 96L
quick developing & quick moving...
But we would need a strong 96L named storm.
And 95L would need a name & quickly strengthens.
As you can see below that scenario could happen
but not with 95L & 96L the way they are today.
That would become a follow the leader set up.
I don't think that will happen.
Could it? Timing not there...
Why?
There's much SAL to talk about.
Big waves take longer to wrap.
96L is a big wave.
That's one hell of a roadblock before 96L
And 95L is meh Subtropical maybe.
No real signature on 95L
96L has a weak heart beat seen below.
Next 3 names in play.
I say that as there are waves still to come.
Sticking with 96L currently.
Looks a bit like Mickey Mouse to me
A heart trying to beat?
I love weather maps.
It's how I got "here"
Show me a map....
...I'll follow it anywhere.
Note this map.
Originally it was a front.
A COLD one.... or a cool one.
There's always one diving down...
...and then they fizzle and go flat.
It's in the high 60s this morning ...
...it lowered the dew points.
The balcony was awesome.
The High today is 85 or 88 degrees...
...depending on which models they use locally.
Sorry but 86 degrees is NOT a cool front.
It's a nice welcome with dry air today.
some lower dew points today...
...before tomorrow!
Tomorrow......the front goes stationary.
Then slides back over us going
then there is another front dipping down
(hope for Autumn is eternal here in NC)
It is too early to rely on a cold front
I would love to argue this logic.
But every front goes flat and then...
...comes back over us with warm air.
SpaghettiModels grid above.
There's the NOAA product for 96L
Maybe Dolly
Stationary front across the South.
A huge High digs in.
This all comes down to timing.
Now the Google Deep Mind...
...throws a wrench into GFS Dreams.
I think the Google doesn't feel the front.
I may be wrong....of course.
That would be my thoughts on the ...
....not out to sea model of the day.
Other models are coming round to this thought.
That's quite the spray of model tracks.
Logical to think (currently)
it gets close in and develops or gets stronger.
(where does it develop???)
Could see in Bahamas....
..a trough comes down and calls its name.
It pulls up towards a landfall...
...but does it make Landfall ?
(in this scenario)
Is a trough in early September that strong?
When the ones in late August went flat?
Doubt it but would love it.
Love Autumn Weather
But that's dreaming my life away today.
Only PSL I'm drinking is a cold one!
Maybe.
I did say I see an Erin Storm this year.
Similar... sliding up along the coast...
weak currents, but eventually
pulls OTS or towards Bermuda.
Maybe.
7 Day Raleigh forecast
And worse case scenario with a trough
is one gets stuck over the Carolinas
7 Day Rain Graphic shows that.
I don't see
dry air digging in...
...with a trough pushing through.
Til I see that the OTS is on hold personally.
Til I see a real verified center on 96L
and it vertically stacks all scenarios are on hold.
2026 has had a string of waves fizzling.
BUT could it quickly develop?
Push thru all that SAL?
Well that would be a wishcast
not a forecast I think.
Spread out big wave.
There's 96L way out near CV Islands.
Long ways to go before we know
where it goes
how strong it becomes
Time will tell.
My bottom line is do what you got to do and stay prepared even in OMG Super El Nino so that is my 1st thought here. It's barely rolled off of Africa so everyone breathe and know that every model will have another model run hours after the 1st model you saw so none are carved into stone and take them with a whole lot of sea salt! It's always easiest to say 'its going out to sea" when they form this far out in an El Nino Year. And, yet in real time they have problems forming and then when they form they have problems staying together an strengthening until they find a sweet spot closer in ....usually and then they go out to sea or they make landfall somewhere ... maybe in the Bahamas on their way to trying to hit Bermuda.
Currently it's a crapshoot, any model now is just a suggestion. Remember that. And, stay aware and prepared please!
Besos BobbiStorm
Ps sit back relax as you have your plan in place ...right? And we will see which port of call could be the destination should this become Dolly and should she survive the SAL and the shear?
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