Was waiting to see if NHC would upgrade...

...to TS or PTC but not yet.

More of the models are moving up ....

...and curving to the NE

Some refuse.

So you can see from the model above.

We have 2 basic solutions.

Earthnull shows how close....

Dvorak below is a great tool.

Ps.... check that out.

While watching Invest 98L

Hispaniola had an Earthquake! 

When it rains it pours.

Okay that might not be a good saying....

...considering what may be coming.

Flash flooding is a deadly concern.

The truth is that there are 2 scenarios currently, and I say currently as nothing is carved in stone yet, but they are contingent in theory upon certain parameters. Catching a ride out of the Caribbean sooner rather than later is based on 98L developing faster and feeling the pull of the steering currents that would grab it and jerk it across some unlikely Island on it's way back out to the Atlantic. That said, there are some models that are making a case for a long range, long shot possibility where it strengthens and has another opportunity to take aim on the US along the East Coast somewhere to North of the Carolinas. And, that can change too. The slower developing scenario has it going West into the cradle of the SW Caribbean that has nurtured many a strong hurricane that many remember always when they see this sort of set up. 

It all comes down to timing.

How fast does 98L become Melissa.

Where is 98L when she becomes Melissa.

How strong is 98L when she becomes Melissa.

Reportedly 98L has the wind speed so all it really needs is a heart; more specifically a well developed center. Currently her rudimentary center is tilted and not aligned vertically and that too can change.

I may update later tonight. Waiting to see what 98L does and more so what NHC does. NHC did put out a Key Messages for 98L and that often happens when they are close to designating a named storm, yet aren't ready but want the messages to get out to the many places in it's possible path.