A trough of low pressure about 900 miles east-southeast of Bermuda has a medium, 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center. The outlook, issued at 8 p.m. EDT Monday, Sept. 14, gave the system a near-zero chance of forming within 48 hours and said environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development by the middle of this week.

"A tropical depression could form late this week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the subtropical Atlantic," the center wrote. It was the only area of interest listed for the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf in that outlook.

The practical meaning is limited but worth tracking. A 40 percent chance refers to any tropical cyclone forming, including a depression. It is not a hurricane forecast, and the outlook does not indicate a threat to the U.S. coast. NHC outlooks are updated regularly and may have changed since that issuance.

A Record Streak Built on El Niño Wind Shear

The Atlantic has produced five named storms this year and no hurricanes. Before 2026, the latest first hurricane known with confidence since satellite tracking began in 1966 formed on Sept. 11, a mark set by Gustav in 2002 and matched by Humberto in 2013, CNN reported. This season has now passed that date.

El Niño is the main reason for the quiet. Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach said wind shear has been record-strong this summer across the Atlantic's main development region, which stretches from Africa through the Caribbean, according to CNN. He also said the season, with just five short-lived tropical storms, was the least active since 1950 as of its statistical peak on Sept. 10.

Nature World News previously reported on the approach to the season's peak with no hurricanes recorded. The new outlook adds a system worth watching in the open subtropical Atlantic.

Reading a 40 Percent Outlook

The center's formation odds describe the chance that a system becomes a tropical depression or stronger within a set window. They do not predict how strong a storm might become, where it would go, or whether it would reach land. NHC groups these odds into low, medium, and high categories, and 40 percent sits at the bottom of the medium range, which spans 40 to 60 percent.

If a tropical storm forms, it would receive the next name on the 2026 list, Fay, Newsweek reported. Because the system is over the open subtropical Atlantic, mariners and Bermuda would be the first to watch any development.

Coastal Households Should Not Stand Down

A record quiet start does not mean the season is finished. Just over half of a typical season's activity occurs after Sept. 10, CNN noted, and late-season storms tend to form closer to the U.S., including in the Gulf and off the Southeast coast, where El Niño's wind shear is often weaker. The season runs through Nov. 30.

Forecasters still expect a quiet finish overall. In its early August update, NOAA raised its odds of a below-normal season to 75 percent, up from 55 percent in May.

Below-normal is not zero. Residents along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts can use the lull to confirm their evacuation zone, restock supplies, and review insurance. Standard homeowners policies generally exclude flood damage, and new federal flood policies typically take 30 days to take effect, so waiting for a storm is too late.

The Next Outlooks to Watch

The Pacific offers a sharp contrast. NHC was issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Norbert, well east of the Hawaiian Islands, and Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

NHC issues its routine outlooks every six hours, at 2 a.m., 8 a.m., 2 p.m., and 8 p.m. EDT. The coming outlooks will show whether conditions near the subtropical trough improve as forecast, and NHC will begin issuing advisories if a depression forms. Whatever happens with this system, El Niño remains the dominant factor for the rest of the season.

One system now has a moderate chance of becoming a depression far from the U.S. The hurricane-free streak continues, and coastal residents still have about 11 weeks of season left to watch.

What Readers Want to Know

What is NHC watching in the Atlantic? A trough about 900 miles east-southeast of Bermuda with a 40 percent chance of development within seven days, as of 8 p.m. EDT Sept. 14.

Could it become a hurricane? NHC has said only that a tropical depression could form late this week. The outlook does not forecast hurricane strength.

Is the U.S. coast threatened? The outlook does not indicate a threat to land. The system is over the open subtropical Atlantic.

What record has 2026 set? It has gone longer without a first hurricane than any season known with confidence since 1966, passing the Sept. 11 mark from 2002 and 2013.

Is hurricane season over? No. It runs through Nov. 30, and residents should keep monitoring NHC outlooks.