The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has gone later into the calendar without a single hurricane than any season since 1914, and current National Hurricane Center outlooks show no hurricane on the immediate horizon. Forecasters point to a strengthening El Niño in the Pacific as the main reason the Atlantic has stayed so quiet.

The only active Atlantic storm late Wednesday was Tropical Storm Fay. In the National Hurricane Center's latest advisory on Tropical Storm Fay, issued at 11 p.m. EDT on September 23 (0300 UTC September 24), forecasters said Fay had regained tropical storm strength with maximum sustained winds near 40 miles per hour, several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. They expect little change for about a day before gradual weakening, with Fay forecast to become a remnant low by the weekend. It poses no threat to land.

The streak matters for coastal households because a quiet season can encourage complacency, just as storms that form close to the U.S. coast remain possible. Fewer storms do not mean no risk, and tropical storms have already caused serious flooding this year.

A Record with a Pre-Satellite Caveat

The Boston Globe reported that the Atlantic had reached September 22 without a hurricane for the first time since 1914. That season is one of only two, along with 1907, that produced no hurricanes at all in records dating to 1851. Citing NOAA records, the Globe said the latest first hurricane on record formed on October 8, 1905.

Meteorologists stress an important caveat. Observations were far more limited in the early 1900s, so storms that stayed well away from land may have gone undetected. The satellite-era record is firmer. Nick Novella, a meteorologist at NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, told the Associated Press that 2026 had set the record for the longest start to a season without a hurricane since satellites began routinely monitoring the tropics in 1966.

The season has produced six named storms, all of them tropical storms. NOAA's latest seasonal outlook update, issued in August, called for 7 to 13 named storms and 2 to 6 hurricanes for the full season, with a 75 percent chance of a below-normal year. An average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

How El Niño Is Suppressing Atlantic Storms

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has an El Niño Advisory in effect and says there is a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026-27. Unusually warm water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific changes atmospheric circulation thousands of miles away, strengthening upper-level winds over the Atlantic tropics.

Those winds create vertical wind shear, which tilts and tears apart developing storms before they can organize. Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach summed up the effect for the Associated Press: "It's just hammering the Atlantic." He also told the AP that overall Atlantic storm activity, a measure combining the number, strength, and duration of storms, was at a post-1950 record low for that point in the season.

The same pattern tends to favor storms in the Pacific. The Globe reported that the Pacific had produced 18 named storms, seven hurricanes, and five major hurricanes, including Hurricane Polo, which intensified from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane within 24 hours off Mexico.

The current Atlantic outlook fits that picture. In its 8 p.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on September 23, the hurricane center gave an area of low pressure a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands a 60 percent chance of becoming a short-lived tropical depression, but said strong upper-level winds should end its chance to develop by the weekend. The system could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Cabo Verde Islands and is thousands of miles from the United States.

Gulf and East Coast Risk Heading into October

The quiet open ocean does not cover the whole basin. Globe meteorologist Ken Mahan noted that nearly 40 percent of Atlantic tropical activity occurs from the third week of September onward, and that water remains warm and wind shear weaker near the Gulf, the Caribbean, and the East Coast. Experts interviewed by the AP likewise warned that shear has not been high over the Gulf, and several pointed to 1992, a late-starting season that produced Hurricane Andrew.

This year has already shown that tropical storms can do damage without reaching hurricane strength. Tropical Storm Arthur formed off the Texas coast in mid-June, brought record rainfall to parts of Louisiana, and spawned tornadoes along the Gulf Coast, according to NOAA. "Inland rainfall is a major cause of damage from tropical storms and hurricanes,"National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in the August update.

Residents of Gulf and Atlantic coastal communities should not treat the record as an all-clear. Seasonal outlooks are probabilities, not guarantees, and a storm that forms close to shore can bring flooding with little warning.

Preparation Still Pays Through November 30

The Atlantic season runs through November 30. The practical steps are the same ones recommended every year: know your evacuation zone, keep a basic supply kit, and review flood coverage. Standard homeowners policies generally do not cover flood damage, and National Flood Insurance Program policies typically take 30 days to take effect, so waiting until a storm appears is too late.

Rely on the National Hurricane Center and your local National Weather Service office for watches and warnings rather than social media posts or single model runs. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible and is typically issued 48 hours before tropical-storm-force winds are expected to arrive, while a warning means those conditions are expected. Follow evacuation instructions from local emergency managers.

Residents of Hawaiʻi face a separate and more immediate threat. As of 5 p.m. HST on September 23, a Hurricane Watch was in effect for Hawaii County as Tropical Storm Nolo approached from the south, and forecasters expected it to become a hurricane by Thursday night. That storm is outside the Atlantic basin.

The Next Milestones to Watch

If no hurricane forms by October 8, 2026 would pass the 1905 benchmark for the latest first Atlantic hurricane in NOAA's records. If the season ends without one, it would join 1907 and 1914 as the only hurricane-free Atlantic seasons since 1851.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is scheduled to release its next monthly El Niño update on October 8, the second Thursday of the month. The hurricane center issues its Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook at least four times daily.

The Atlantic's record quiet is real and well explained, but it is not a guarantee. Coastal residents can take some comfort in the outlook while keeping their plans ready for a late-season storm.

What Readers Want to Know

Has any hurricane formed in the Atlantic in 2026?

No. As of the National Hurricane Center's advisories late on September 23, the Atlantic had produced six named storms and no hurricanes.

What record did the Atlantic break?

No season has gone this late without a hurricane since 1914. Forecasters also say 2026 set the record for the latest start without a hurricane in the satellite era, which began in 1966.

Why is the Atlantic so quiet?

A strengthening El Niño in the Pacific is increasing wind shear over the Atlantic, which tears apart developing storms before they can organize.

Is hurricane season over?

No. The Atlantic season runs through November 30, and storms can still form near the Gulf, the Caribbean, and the East Coast, where wind shear has been weaker.

Is Tropical Storm Fay a threat to the United States?

No. Fay is far out in the Atlantic and is forecast to weaken into a remnant low by the weekend without affecting land.

What should coastal residents do now?

Keep emergency supplies, know your evacuation zone, and check flood insurance coverage. Follow the National Hurricane Center and local officials for any new watches or warnings.

When is the next El Niño update?

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center releases its monthly update on the second Thursday of each month, with the next expected on October 8.