Key events

A Trojan horse installation by Greenpeace and Danish artist Thomas Dambo at Cop31. Photograph: Kaan Soyturk/Reuters

Greenpeace has unveiled a 6-metre tall Trojan horse next to a town hall in Antalya to draw attention to the fossil fuel industry’s expansion through plastic.

The installation, by Danish artist Thomas Dambo, has bags of plastic rubbish spilling out of the horse’s stomach, and a sign that reads: “Stop Plastic. Big Oil’s Trojan horse.”

A Trojan horse installation by Greenpeace and Danish artist Thomas Dambo at Cop31. Photograph: Kaan Soyturk/Reuters

Petrochemicals are an attractive opportunity for oil companies anxious that their core business – selling fuels to burn – will be destroyed by the green transition.

Plastic production worsens the climate crisis through the extraction of hydrocarbons, during which planet-heating methane often leaks into the atmosphere, and the energy-intensive process of turning fossil fuels into consumer products. Large volumes of plastic are then burned as waste, pumping even more CO2 and other lung-scarring chemicals into the air.

The UK government still has no plans to publish an explosive report showing the national security risk from the collapse of ecosystems around the world – even after handing the key official behind the report a new advisory role.

Andy Burnham addressed the Cop31 climate summit in Turkey on Thursday and said the UK was determined to reach net zero by 2050 and work with its partners to build a clean energy future.

The prime minister also announced the appointment of Madeleine Alessandri, a long-serving civil servant and the former head of the UK’s joint intelligence committee, to be adviser on climate security. The JIC is the committee of the UK’s spy chiefs, which oversees the work of MI5 and MI6.

Alessandri spearheaded the publication of the climate report, which found that food shortages, food price rises, mass migration and nuclear conflict overseas could result from the failure to prevent the collapse of key ecosystems, including the Amazon rainforest.

The report was supposed to be launched at last year’s Cop, but was suppressed by Keir Starmer’s government. The Guardian revealed – through a leak – the key contents of the report ahead of its intended launch last year, and early this year a redacted version was put out. Ed Miliband, the foreign secretary, has briefed foreign governments on the findings and the report clearly influenced Burnham’s decision to appoint Alessandri, but the report itself remains under wraps.

China has ruled out hosting the Cop33 UN climate summit in 2028 after months of deliberations, leaving the field open for other Asian countries to hold it, the Guardian understands.

The decision will disappoint many countries and climate experts, who had hoped the world’s biggest emitter would take the lead on the global stage, as the US under Donald Trump has vacated all forms of international cooperation on the climate.

Al Gore, the former US vice-president, was among those left disheartened by the decision. “I would be very much in favour of that idea [of China hosting the summit],” he told the Guardian. “It’s too bad.”

China is in the midst of an economic transformation, from being heavily dependent on coal to becoming an “electro state”. John Kerry, the former US secretary of state, told the Guardian that China was leaving the rest of the world behind in forging and using the low-carbon technologies of the future.

Former US secretary of state John Kerry at Cop31. Photograph: Kaan Soyturk/Reuters

Renewable energy generation capacity has now outstripped coal in China, and its greenhouse gas emissions appear to have declined slightly this year.

Sales of electric vehicles in the country have also taken off, making up nearly two-thirds of the market last month, and China’s clean energy industries drove more than 90% of the country’s investment growth last year.

The rules of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) mean an Asian country should host in 2028.

Gareth Redmond-King, the international lead at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit thinktank, said China’s position as an industrial powerhouse would have made it a formidable contender to hold the summit.

“It would undoubtedly be significant for the world’s biggest emitter and second-biggest economy to host a climate Cop,” he said.

“They’re leading the world on investment, manufacture and deployment of clean energy tech, and their emissions have started to tick down. As a leadership story, China hosting Cop33 would be a big deal.”

Real negotiations can begin as world leaders depart

Good morning. Nearly all of the more than 90 world leaders who descended on Antalya in the past three days have now packed up their suitcases and lit out, some of them for the EU’s AI summit in Dublin. Anthony Albanese and the UN secretary-general are among the few to linger but will also head off later today.

With the departure of the circus, the real negotiations can begin, and a first draft of the cover decision for this Cop could come as soon as today, though over the weekend or Monday are still more likely. Look out for wording on the “overshoot” of 1.5C, climate science, the all-important transition away from fossil fuels, the electrification target and finance. The current “wishlist” can be perused here.

As double-hosted Cop31 gathers steam, the quest is also on for a venue for Cop33. Next year’s event will be in Ethiopia, and according to the complex systems of the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the meeting after that should be in Asia. But who will host?

As the Guardian revealed last night, it will not be China – a shame, according to many experts, who had been hoping that the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and second biggest economy would step up. China is undergoing a massive economic transformation, swapping reliance on coal and oil for electricity generated from renewable sources. This has proved a boost to the country’s economy, as the clean and low-carbon sectors now make up more than a tenth of its GDP.

India also considered hosting Cop33, but dropped its early-stage proposal months ago. That leaves the field open, with Uzbekistan, Thailand, Korea and Indonesia also cited as potential bidders. No decision on the hosting is likely to be made at this Cop, as countries are likely to need more time to develop their bids.