Good day everyone!

Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 – 7 days.

Again, regarding issuance of tropical updates and severe weather updates, severe weather updates will be posted for SLIGHT risk or greater outlines. Once we begin seeing probabilities for possible tropical development, or we get a developing system, the tropical weather update will take precedence.

The forecast center is closed on Saturday’s and Sunday’s.  Please visit the SPC site for severe weather updates and information on these days.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

The Storm Prediction Center indicates a SLIGHT risk for severe thunderstorms for Wed., Thu, and Sat. The following graphics are linked to their outlooks:
DAY 2 OUTLOOK:

DAY 3 OUTLOOK:

SPC DAY 4 – 8 OUTLOOK: 

IF 1300Z SPC DAY 1 outlook graphics are utilized, please check the SPC site for any updates to the outline risks when they are issued.  The next update is issued at 1630Z (12:30 p.m. EDT) 

CURRENT DAY1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued an ENHANCED risk for severe thunderstorms in the current DAY1 Outlook: ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…

There is a SLIGHT risk ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 2+ inch diameter hail, 75+ mph gusts, and isolated tornadoes are expected from the central High Plains into parts of the southern Plains today into tonight. Scattered damaging winds should also occur with thunderstorms across southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina.

1300Z SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK (LINKED FOR OUTLOOK TEXT)

TORNADO PROBABILITY

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.  Hatched area: a 10% or greater probability of  EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point
HAIL PROBABILITY

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched area: a 10% or greater probability of 2.0 inch diameter or larger hail within 25 miles of a point 
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.  Hatched area: a 10% or greater probability of 65 kt+ winds within 25 miles of a point

CSU – MLP DAY 1 AND 2 FORECAST PROBABILITIES (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)
NOT AVAILABLE AT TIME OF ANALYSIS

NSSL ML DAY 1 PROBABILITY

CSU – MLP 6 PANEL PROBABILITIES DAY 3 – DAY 8 FORECAST (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)
NOT AVAILABLE AT TIME OF ANALYSIS

DAY 1 PROBABILITY CONVERSION TABLE

SPC DISCUSSION EXCERPT:
…Southern Plains…
Mainly elevated thunderstorms are occurring across western/southwest KS into northwest OK this morning, aided by a 20-25 kt southerly low-level jet and attendant warm/moist advection. This convection may tend to remain elevated for at least the next couple of hours, as a surface front remains draped near the Red River vicinity. However, there is substantial low-level moisture present across the TX Panhandle into western OK along/south of the ongoing thunderstorms (upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints). Steep mid-level lapse rates atop this moist airmass is supporting MUCAPE up to 3000-4000 J/kg. Strongly veering and modestly strengthening winds with height through mid/upper levels is fostering upwards of 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear per recent RAP forecast soundings and latest mesoanalysis estimates. This activity will likely continue to pose a threat for mainly large hail this morning so long as the mode remains supercellular.

With time, mergers/outflow interactions should foster some clustering/upscale growth into the afternoon. There is some potential for a more concentrated corridor of severe/damaging winds to spread southward this afternoon and evening across parts of the TX Panhandle into western/central OK with one or more intense clusters that form. Isolated significant gusts to 75-85 mph gusts appear possible given an already very moist/unstable airmass that will undergo additional destabilization with daytime heating. Strongly considered increasing wind probabilities and introducing an Enhanced Risk for this area. But, ongoing morning convection casts a little too much uncertainty to upgrade with this outlook update.

…Central High Plains…
Model trends suggest that robust convective initiation may be delayed until 00Z or perhaps even later (04-06Z). Still, a conditionally favorable environment for very large hail will exist across the central High Plains this afternoon into tonight. Any thunderstorms that can develop will likely become severe given strong deep-layer shear, the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, and moderate to locally strong instability. Have maintained the Enhanced Risk for large to very large hail, but lower confidence exists for a swath of severe/damaging winds given the probable late timing of convection and tendency for this activity to remain discrete. Even though low-level flow and shear will remain modest this evening across the central High Plains, a tornado may still occur with any sustained supercell.

The following maps are from NADOCAST for tornado and hail probabilities.  Click each image for a larger view.  
12Z NADOCAST TORNADO PROBABILITY

12Z NADOCAST SIGTOR PROBABILITY

12Z NADOCAST HAIL PROBABILITY

12Z NADOCAST SIGHAIL PROBABILITY

Based on my analysis this morning, forecast indices call for a moderately to extremely unstable atmosphere within the ENHANCED risk and the 30% HATCHED HAIL OUTLINE. ALL risks are possible, with the main risks being strong, damaging thunderstorm winds / gusts and large to severe hail. The tornado risk was at 2%, and any tornadoes that develop should remain within the range of EF0 – EF1.

If there is a lack of sufficient 0 – 1 km SRH, effective (EFF.) SRH will be used in calculation of tornadic EHI.  From research: (Effective Layer SRH: Recent research suggests using “effective layer” SRH (usually 1250-2250m AGL) as a superior substitute for 0-1 km SRH, as it better represents the inflow layer for supercells).

EHI INDICES are for the guidelines listed above.  Listed indices will always pertain to the area(s) located within the highest SPC risk outlines, based mainly on SBCAPE indices, and / or regarding a higher tornado potential, should multiple severe risk areas appear in the SPC forecast.  Although certain indices may appear stronger on a forecast map, given the lack of other indices does not contribute to the overall severe risk.  Bear in mind, MAXIMUM indices recorded below are for the time of peak intensity.  Some indices meanings are posted below the indices themselves, and the NWS page containing a more extensive explanation can be accessed further on in the synopsis.

The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this morning within the ENHANCED risk outline and the 30% HATCHED HAIL OUTLINE
SBCAPE: 1500 – 4500 j/kg-1              
MLCAPE: 1000 – 4000 j/kg-1                  
MUCAPE: 1500 – 4500 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 50 – 300 m2/s2       
SRH 0 -3 km: 250 – 500 m2/s2     
SRH EFFECTIVE: 150 – 400 m2/s2      
L. I.: -3 to -10                                           
SCP: 3 – 23
STP: 0.5 – 2.6
0 -6 km SHEAR: 40kts – 60kts                  
EFF. SHEAR: 30kts – 40kts                        
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 8.5C – 9.0C
DEWPOINT: 53F – 71F                                   
SUPERCELL EHI : 2.0 – 4.7
TORNADIC EHI : 0.4 – 2.8                       
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 56C       
K INDEX: 24C to 40C
SWEAT INDEX: 430 – 490            
THOMPSON INDEX: 27 to 50
CRAVEN – BROOKS INDEX: 10,000 – 60,000

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.