Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a MARGINAL risk for severe thunderstorms in the current DAY 1 Outlook: ACROSS EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK TO OZARKS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri.
SPC DAY 1 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK (LINKED)

TORNADO PROBABILITY

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
HAIL PROBABILITY

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

The following is the current CSU – MLP severe weather forecast map:
CSU – MLP DAY 1 FORECAST (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)


DAY 1 PROBABILITY CONVERSION TABLE

SPC DISCUSSION
Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead to destabilization over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas through late afternoon and early evening, with stronger elevated instability rapidly developing across eastern Kansas and Missouri during the evening into the overnight. Indications are that initial storm development could occur by around 00-03Z over northeast Oklahoma near the low-level jet axis as moisture spreads into the heated-air mass and beneath cool temperatures aloft. Strong and veering winds with height, as well as deepening moisture through 700 mb, will favor cells producing large hail as cells develop into southern Missouri and possibly far northern Arkansas. Portions of the OK/KS/AR/MO border vicinity will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for the possibility of a semi-focused hail-related Slight Risk upgrade. There may also be a low risk of a tornado, though highly conditional at this time given the modest moisture, related to the southernmost development closer to the stronger SBCAPE from far northeast Oklahoma into extreme northwest Arkansas.

Overnight, as a cold front moves east-southeastward across Kansas, lift will be enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of storms could develop along the front, conditional on capping, with both hail and wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air mass extending north toward the Iowa/Missouri border will support isolated hail as well within the warm advection regime.
The following maps indicate the probability for tornadoes for today and this evening.
NADOCAST TORNADO PROBABILITY (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

HREF / GEFS PROBABILITY 00Z (7:00 P.M. CDT AND 11:00 P.M. CDT)


Based on my analysis of the severe weather indices, the forecast calls for a marginally unstable atmosphere.  Indices indicated the main severe threat for the period should be the potential for hail.  In some instances, isolated large hail could occur, based on deep layer shear and moderately steep mid level lapse rates.  As of analysis, SRH and EHI values, along with CAPE values 1000 j/kg-1 indicate isolated tornado activity may occur, however the threat based on the SPC outline and NADOCAST forecast appears low, and if any tornado activity occurs, it should be weak. Based on analysis of model animations and the current outlook, I expect storms to initiate at approximately 0000Z (7:00 P.M. CDT), with the strongest period from 00Z ( 7:00 P.M. CDT 22 MAR.) – 04Z (11:00 P.M. CDT 22 MAR.) and then diminishing by 06Z (1:00 A.M. CDT 23 MAR.).

Regarding the EHI values for this synopsis, the minimum value will represent indices outside of the MARGINAL risk outline, and maximum values within the MARGINAL risk and 2% TORNADO outline.

Indices were analyzed from the NAM 3KM, HRRR 3KM, CIPS DETERMINISTIC, SPC SREF, and CSU – MLP model guidance.

The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this afternoon, with the maximum values pertaining to the MARGINAL outline.  Bear in mind, indices recorded below are for the time of peak intensity.  Some indices meanings are posted below the indices themselves, and the NWS page containing a more extensive explanation can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 250 – 1000 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 250 – 750 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 500 – 1250 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 300 – 400 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 600 – 750 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 300 – 500 m2/s2
L. I.: 0 to -1
SCP: 4.0 – 12.0
STP: 0.1 – 0.8
0 -6 km SHEAR: 60 kts – 65 kts
EFF. SHEAR: 50 kts – 60 kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 7.5C – 8.0C
DEWPOINT: 35F – 51F
EHI: 1.1 – 2.2
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 55C
K INDEX: 28 – 30C
SWEAT INDEX: 475 – 500
THOMPSON INDEX: 28 – 31
CRAVEN – BROOKS INDEX: 10,000

CAPE

ENERGY HELICITY INDEX

K INDEX

TOTAL TOTALS INDEX

STORM RELATIVE HELICITY

LIFTED INDEX

SWEAT VALUES

THOMPSON INDEX

Craven SigSvr Parameter:
The simple product of 100mb MLCAPE and 0-6km magnitude of the vector difference (m/s; often referred to as “deep layer shear”) accounts for the compensation between instability and shear magnitude. Using a database of about 60,000 soundings, the majority of significant severe events (2+ inch hail, 65+ knot winds, F2+ tornadoes) occur when the product exceeds 20,000 m3/s3.
A little fact on SRH values and tornadoes from NOAA / NWS

A little fact on SRH values and tornadoes from NOAA / NWS
Storm Relative Helicity (m² s^-2)
SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells, and is calculated for the lowest 1-km and 3-km layers above ground level. There is no clear threshold value for SRH when forecasting supercells, since the formation of supercells appears to be related more strongly to the deeper layer vertical shear. Larger values of 0-3-km SRH (greater than 250 m² s^-2) and 0-1-km SRH (greater than 100 m² s^-2), however, do suggest an increased threat of tornadoes with supercells. For SRH, larger values are generally better, but there are no clear thresholds between non-tornadic and significant tornadic supercells.

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM 3KM and HRRR 3KM model.  Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and / or tornadic activity over an area:
NAM 3KM SCP FORECAST 7:00 P.M. CDT MAR. 22 – 1:00 A.M. CDT MAR. 23, 2025

NAM 3KM STP FORECAST 7:00 P.M. CDT MAR. 22 – 1:00 A.M. CDT MAR. 23, 2025

HRRR 3KM SCP FORECAST 7:00 P.M. CDT MAR. 22 – 1:00 A.M. CDT MAR. 23, 2025

HRRR 3KM STP FORECAST 7:00 P.M. CDT MAR. 22 – 1:00 A.M. CDT MAR. 23, 2025

Please use the following maps, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches.  You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics.  I have provided the SPC homepage link below, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)

IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

Elsewhere, the SPC has issued a SLIGHT risk for severe thunderstorms in the current DAY 2 Outlook: FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY…

SPC SUMMARY
Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and possibly a tornado or two.
SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK (LINKED)

TORNADO PROBABILITY

HAIL PROBABILITY

DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY

CSU – MLP DAY 2 FORECAST (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

I will try to have a full DAY2 forecast when I return this evening from a friends birthday party and it won’t be published until late this evening.  I will be out of the office tomorrow.

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST