Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

The following is a preliminary synopsis, as I will be out of the office tomorrow most of the day.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a MARGINAL risk for severe thunderstorms in the current DAY 2 Outlook: FOR THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE…WESTERN OKLAHOMA…PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS…

…SPC SUMMARY…
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into northwest Oklahoma and adjacent southwest Kansas on Sunday. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds are the primary hazards.
SPC DAY 2 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK (LINKED)

TORNADO PROBABILITY

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. 
HAIL PROBABILITY

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

The following is the current CSU – MLP severe weather forecast map:
CSU – MLP DAY 2 FORECAST (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)


DAY 2 PROBABILITY CONVERSION TABLE

A term / value during low buoyancy (CAPE below 1000) and high shear called SHERB (Severe Hazards in an Environment with Reduced Buoyancy) is used to indicate where the best probability could be for tornado activity.  Values of 1.0+ indicate where the tornadic activity may have the best probability.
EFFSHERB DOES NOT APPLY TO THIS SYNOPSIS

The following is from the current SPC DAY 2 Outlook:
…DISCUSSION…
A compact upper low currently in the lower Colorado Valley will eject into the southern High Plains by early afternoon on Sunday. A modest surface low will develop in response to this feature and will generally track through the Texas Panhandle into western/central Oklahoma. Moisture return on the western flank of the surface high to the east will be relatively weak. However, with 50s F dewpoints in portions of Central Texas, it is possible that mid/upper 40s F could return into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma vicinity during the afternoon.

…Eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma Vicinity…
With the approach of the compact shortwave trough, some elevated showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning. This activity will move northeastward and may persist into the early/mid afternoon in some areas. The primary severe risk will be associated with the surface low and whatever destabilization is able to occur in the wake of the early activity. As mentioned, moisture will be rather modest. Compensating for this, however, will be very cold temperatures aloft (-20 to -22 C in the core of the upper low/trough). At lest a narrow band of buoyancy is expected to develop in the eastern Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma. A strong mid-level jet on the southern/eastern flank of the upper trough will promote at least marginal supercell structures capable of large hail and strong/marginally severe winds. Storms are more likely to be elevated farther north into Kansas and east into central Oklahoma. Even so, small to marginally severe hail and isolated strong gusts would be possible in the strongest storms.

Based on my analysis of the most recent severe weather indices, the forecast calls marginally unstable atmosphere. I’m making a change to the posted EHI values.  I have been averaging the minimum and maximum values and coming up with the “average” for each.  Values will now be posted with the range for the minimum and maximum values.  In regards to this synopsis, the minimum values will represent indices outside of the 5% hail outline, and maximum values within the 5% hail and 2% tornado outline.  The main severe weather risks based on the values should be hail and damaging thunderstorm winds / gusts based on deep layer shear, lifted index, and mid level lapse rates.  Although the current SWEAT index suggests tornadoes are likely, SRH and EHI values indicate ANY tornado activity would most likely be slim and isolated, and only within the EF0 – EF1 intensity range.

Indices were analyzed from the NAM 3KM, CIPS DETERMINISTIC, and SPC SREF, model guidance.

The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this afternoon, with the max. values pertaining to the MARGINAL risk area, and mainly located over Oklahoma.  Bear in mind, indices recorded below are for the time of peak intensity which appear to be between 3:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. CST, MAR. 02.  Activity is forecast to diminish after this time.  Some indices meanings are posted below the indices themselves, and the NWS page containing a more extensive explanation can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 500 – 1000 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 250 – 500 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 250 – 1000 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 100 – 200 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 150 – 300 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 100 – 150 m2/s2
L. I.: -1 to -5
SCP: 1 – 6
STP: 0.4 – 1.3
0 -6 km SHEAR: 50 kts – 60 kts
EFF. SHEAR: 30 kts – 40 kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 7.0C – 8.0C
DEWPOINT: 48F – 55F
EHI: (MINIMUM) 0.2 – 0.5 (MAXIMUM) 0.5 – 0.9
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 57C
K INDEX: 32 – 34C
SWEAT INDEX: 500 – 525
THOMPSON INDEX: 33 – 39
CRAVEN – BROOKS INDEX: 10,000

CAPE

ENERGY HELICITY INDEX

K INDEX

TOTAL TOTALS INDEX

STORM RELATIVE HELICITY

LIFTED INDEX

SWEAT VALUES

THOMPSON INDEX

Craven SigSvr Parameter:
The simple product of 100mb MLCAPE and 0-6km magnitude of the vector difference (m/s; often referred to as “deep layer shear”) accounts for the compensation between instability and shear magnitude. Using a database of about 60,000 soundings, the majority of significant severe events (2+ inch hail, 65+ knot winds, F2+ tornadoes) occur when the product exceeds 20,000 m3/s3.
A little fact on SRH values and tornadoes from NOAA / NWS

A little fact on SRH values and tornadoes from NOAA / NWS
Storm Relative Helicity (m² s^-2)
SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) is a measure of the potential for cyclonic updraft rotation in right-moving supercells, and is calculated for the lowest 1-km and 3-km layers above ground level. There is no clear threshold value for SRH when forecasting supercells, since the formation of supercells appears to be related more strongly to the deeper layer vertical shear. Larger values of 0-3-km SRH (greater than 250 m² s^-2) and 0-1-km SRH (greater than 100 m² s^-2), however, do suggest an increased threat of tornadoes with supercells. For SRH, larger values are generally better, but there are no clear thresholds between non-tornadic and significant tornadic supercells.

STP ( Significant Tornado Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A majority of significant tornadoes (EF2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.

SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) EXPLAINED:
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.

The following are the SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) and STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) forecast maps from the NAM model.  The HRRR model does not go out this far in the forecast period.  Generally, the higher the values and brighter the color, indicates a greater probability of strong thunderstorm and / or tornadic activity over an area:
NAM 3KM SCP FORECAST 3:00 P.M. CST MAR. 02 – 9:00 P.M. CST MAR. 02, 2025

NAM 3KM STP FORECAST 3:00 P.M. CST MAR. 02 – 9:00 P.M. CST MAR. 02, 2025

I have provided the SPC homepage link below, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

The following sites will explain most of the severe weather and tornado values listed above, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
https://www.weather.gov/lmk/indices

THE WEATHER PREDICTION
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/

There are currently 2 more rounds of severe weather in the forecast.  A MARGINAL risk for Monday 03 MAR., and Tuesday 04 MAR. with a good possibility of an ENHANCED risk for Monday with possible significant severe weather and possibly some strong tornadoes.
SPC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

CSU – MLP DAY 3 FORECAST AND SPC COMPARISON (LINKED)

SPC DAY 4 SEVERE PROBABILITY

CSU – MLP DAY 4 FORECAST AND SPC COMPARISON (LINKED)
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST