Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued an SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS in the current DAY 2 outlook: FROM PARTS OF KENTUCKY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA…
A severe threat will be possible Tuesday mainly from Kentucky across Ohio and into western Pennsylvania. A few strong storms are also expected from southern Virginia into northern North Carolina.
On Tuesday, a shortwave trough will move quickly across the OH Valley and into the Northeast, with midlevel winds increasing to 40-50 kt with gradual height falls. Meanwhile, low pressure will move from IN into OH during the afternoon, and across western NY overnight. A front will extend west/southwest from the low, and move very slowly across the OH Valley. Ahead of the cold front, a plume of 60s F dewpoints will stream northeast out of TN and KY across OH and into western PA, contributing to destabilization. East of the Appalachians, a weak warm front will lift north across northern NC and into VA, with 60s F dewpoints and heating resulting in an unstable air mass.
SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK LINK:
SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY
Based on my analysis of the SPC DAY 2 Outlook, the thermodynamic setup will allow for all hazards. Forecast dewpoints of 60’sF and daytime heating will aid in destabilization of the atmosphere. Deep layer shear, MUCAPE values of 1000 – 1500 j/kg, and increasing SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) will aid in the tornado threat over the Ohio Valley.
Based on my analysis of both the NAM-WRF model from F5 DATA, and the NAM 3 km model, the following forecast severe and tornado indices were analyzed and values represent a blend of both models:
SBCAPE: 1000 – 2000 j/kg
MLCAPE: 300 – 500 j/kg
MUCAPE: 1000 – 1500 j/kg
SRH: 150 – 300 m2/s2
L. I.: -2 to -6
SWEAT: 250 – 275
EHI: 1 – 2
VGP: 0.1 – 0.3
STP: 1 – 2
A majority of significant tornadoes (F2 or greater damage) have been associated with STP values greater than 1, while most non-tornadic supercells have been associated with values less than 1 in a large sample of RAP analysis proximity soundings.
A multiple ingredient, composite index that includes effective storm-relative helicity (ESRH, based on Bunkers right supercell motion), most unstable parcel CAPE (muCAPE) and convective inhibition (muCIN), and effective bulk wind difference (EBWD). Each ingredient is normalized to supercell “threshold” values, and larger values of SCP denote greater “overlap” in the three supercell ingredients. Only positive values of SCP are displayed, which correspond to environments favoring right-moving (cyclonic) supercells.
VGP: The VGP(Vorticity Generation Parameter) is meant to estimate the rate of tilting and stretching of horizontal vorticity by a thunderstorm updraft. Values greater than 0.2 m s-2 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms.
The following sites will explain most of these values, and will give you an idea of what to expect:
ENVIRONMENTAL INDICES AND PARAMETERS NWS
THE WEATHER PREDICTION
The following outlined areas indicate where the modeling suggests the best / highest probabilities of where tornadoes could occur. The strongest of the indices will be located where the SPC has the 2% probability area for tornadoes. Based on analysis of the indices, the values begin to increase at around 1:00 p. m. CDT, and peak around 4:00 p. m. CDT, then begin to weaken around 7:00 p. m. CDT. Based on analysis of the F5 DATA forecast maps, and the SPC SREF model, the severe threat appears to affect Southern VA./Northern NC.
F5 DATA NAM – WRF 1:00 P. M. CDT
4:00 P. M. CDT
The following NAM 3km animations indicate the locations and strength of the forecast STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) index, and SCP (Supercell Composite Parameter) index.
NAM 3km STP (1:00 P. M. CDT MAY 03 – 7:00 P. M. CDT MAY 03)
NAM 3km SCP
Please use the following maps for all days, which should update automatically, for Mesoscale Discussions and Convective Watches. You may have to refresh your browser, or click on the graphics. I am also providing the SPC homepage link, so you may get the updated information regarding any changes to the outlook:
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES (CLICK IMAGE FOR UPDATES)
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA, IMMEDIATELY TAKE STURDY AND SAFE SHELTER
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST