Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

As I’ve mentioned before, I continue to monitor for any severe weather threats on almost a day to day basis.  Although the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does not indicate a severe weather risk during the next 5 days, analysis this morning of the CSU-MLP severe probability model has been indicating a low (5%) probability (MARGINAL risk) of severe weather over a portion of the deep south for Monday MAR. 03.  This preliminary forecast however will focus on Tuesday MAR. 04, DAY 7 in the forecast period.
CSU – MLP DAY 6 FORECAST (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a 15% probability (which would equate to a SLIGHT risk outline) in the DAY7 Outlook from: East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley.
SPC DAY 7 SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY (IMAGE LINKED)

CSU – MLP DAY 7 FORECAST (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

The following is from the current SPC DAY 7 Outlook:

…DISCUSSION…
Severe weather potential will be low to start the period with northerly flow across the Gulf on D4/Saturday. On D5/Sunday, a compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on D6/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains. Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level moisture advection continues. …

D7/Tue – East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley… By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be complete with 70F dewpoints forecast by both GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Aloft however, there is significant disagreement regarding the amplitude of the larger scale wave on Tuesday. The less amplified GFS seems to be the outlier, with a more amplified solution preferred by most other extended range guidance. However, even the GFS would pose a severe weather threat across parts of East Texas into the Mid-Lower Mississippi Valley. The inherent uncertainty in a Day 7 forecast and the modest spread regarding the mid-level trough evolution make specific factors such as severe hazards and storm mode nebulous at this time. However, there is enough confidence in at least mid-60s dewpoints well inland with an ejecting large scale trough, to introduce broad 15% severe weather probabilities on D7/Tuesday from East Texas to the Mid-Mississippi Valley region.

The following were the forecast parameters and indices analyzed this afternoon, with the maximum values pertaining to the SPC outline mainly from the Eastern portion, to South – Central portion.  Bear in mind, indices recorded below are for the time of peak intensity which is currently unknown due to the current discrepancies in the modeling, especially with the GFS apparently being slower in the timing of strengthening.  However, the indices do indicate a MODERATELY unstable environment in the forecast.   SPC mentions discrepancies with the GFS as compared to the other models.  Indices were derived and are a combination from the CIPS DETERMINISTIC model, GFS, ECMWF and CMC models, as the NAM 3 km model I routinely use only goes out 60 – 84 hours in the forecast period.  Based on this, forecast indices should be considered somewhat of low confidence at this time.  Once the NAM comes into play, I should have better information on these indices.  Some indices meanings are posted below, and the NWS page containing a more extensive list can be accessed further on in the synopsis:
SBCAPE: 750 – 2000 j/kg-1
MLCAPE: 250 – 1000 j/kg-1
MUCAPE: 1250 – 2000 j/kg-1
SRH 0 -1 km: 200 – 300 m2/s2
SRH 0 -3 km: 250 – 400 m2/s2
SRH EFFECTIVE: 200 – 300 m2/s2
L. I.: -1 to -4
SCP: 6 – 8
STP: 1.0 – 2.0
0 -6 km SHEAR: 50 kts- 60 kts
EFF. SHEAR: 40 kts – 50 kts
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE: 7.5C – 8.0C
DEWPOINT: 61F – 70F
EHI: 0.5 – 2.1
TOTAL TOTALS INDEX: 49C – 51C
K INDEX: 32C – 36C
SWEAT INDEX: 425 – 500
THOMPSON INDEX: 33 – 40
CRAVEN – BROOKS INDEX: 10,000 – 25,000

CAPE

ENERGY HELICITY INDEX

K INDEX

TOTAL TOTALS INDEX

STORM RELATIVE HELICITY

LIFTED INDEX

SWEAT VALUES

THOMPSON INDEX

Craven SigSvr Parameter:
The simple product of 100mb MLCAPE and 0-6km magnitude of the vector difference (m/s; often referred to as “deep layer shear”) accounts for the compensation between instability and shear magnitude. Using a database of about 60,000 soundings, the majority of significant severe events (2+ inch hail, 65+ knot winds, F2+ tornadoes) occur when the product exceeds 20,000 m3/s3.
A little fact on SRH values and tornadoes from NOAA / NWS.

Again, for the time being, this should be considered a somewhat low confidence forecast.  I will continue to monitor all of this over the next few days for any changes to the forecast instability, and will try to update daily except Sunday.

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST