Currently yellow out by Africa is Invest 99L

While the lead system is orange....

...it's not yet an Invest.

Generally when you have a huge storm such as Erin the tropical waters stay quieter for a little while. But we have things to track and so showing the models for 99L. Note some AI models do NOT develop her. So it's a good learning point to see which models are right as the AI models are still in their infancy.  Keeping this blog short today. There is not much to say. Yes, Erin lingered longer in those Bahama waters that I had mentioned previously lend themselves to storms stalling or dawdling while waiting for steering currents up the road to get in place and do their thing. I mentioned a "wrinkle" and I have mentioned over and over that "timing" and her forward speed were more important than wind speed with regard to the movement of Erin. That happened. Now she is on the move.

Went to the doctor today, the doctor said I'm doing good but need to go slow so I am.  And honestly there is not much to say as today is the day for Erin to show what she's got and what she is capable of at this point. NHC is doing a good job dealing with the wrinkles such as her unexpected delay in the Bahamas (I was obviously not surprised) and her decreasing in intensity as they had predicted shear but did not predict it would take such a toll on her. The size itself of Erin makes much of what she does difficult, and swirling over the same spot for hours and hours starts the upwelling process. So waters to the South in the Bahamas where she was are not as warm and inviting as where she is going.

Look at her spin.

She really is beautiful.

Long banding to the South...

... evacuating energy beautifully.

She may not be what she once was...

...no longer a Category 4

But she's way better than anything so far..

So stay tuned.

I should update later today.