Big question today is....

...does the 70% become Invest 90L

It is at 70%.... following big sister Erin.

Could this be Fernand?

Stay tuned!

8 AM NHC added a tiny yellow dot moving E..

okay... East hmnn not obsessing on this now.

I heard online the center of Erin stayed about 200 miles offshore, her waves and wind radiating out in all directions along the coast and towards Bermuda. But, we were spared a direct hit and basically Erin did what she has always done in that she skimmed along the coast but not onto the coast that crated crashing waves in the Islands and in The Bahamas and UP the East Coast. A nice meteorological distraction to the flow of news that often is depressing or scary and watching weather people at the coast was fun. 

Glad I didn't go down to Wrightsville Beach, as the waves 2 weeks back at Kill Devil Hills were more than they had at Wrightsville and the wind was even a drop higher steady for a bit at 30 MPH. This "set up" or as I say "pattern" has been almost locked in place for over a month going back to before July 4th Holiday. Six weeks? 

When there are fronts in the summertime that descend down towards the Carolinas and they go flat in the warm water and low pressure forms you end up with Chantal that did the Carolinas. Numerous tropical waves, Invests were on the weather map and then finally the Carolinas attracted the really awesome African wave that was Invest 97 and became Erin. The East Coast is currently a hot spot for tropical development currently and we need to watch this down the road as stronger fronts come in and dive deeper and sometimes a front draws in the Hurricane and other times it runs away with the hurricane.

The Atlantic in some spots is not as hot was it was and that is partially due to Erin dawdling along, stalling a bit spinning over the same water for too long so the water is cooler, and the atmosphere is still drier from lingering Saharan Dust.

Look at that SAL seen in golds and reds.

It's cloaking the current waves some.

Only reason Erin made it is....

...she has SPIN coming off.

She rolled off.

Erin was a rare winner wave....

...these are not and that's okay.

After a large hurricane the atmosphere is tired.

I know Erin passed your latitude and you had this feeling of "okay it's gone turn it off now I'm done with it" and yet you watched it pull itself back together after it dilly dallied too long in the Bahamas and it made you a bit curious but now you turn the news on and you think "Oh my God how long are we going to watch this storm" and yes I know some of you do think that way. You're already asking experts online "what's next?" and "why does the one wave have an Invest and the other does not even though it has higher chances?" and others of you are simply redecorating your homes with bits of Fall Decor and debating if you are ready yet for a Pumpkin Spice Latte.

Weather can be so exciting one minute and the next everyone is bored.

I'm not bored, but I am moving on and will keep watching Erin's impacts up the coastline. Erin did wash out Highway 12 and Erin did flood beyond some of the dunes, though the dune line on OBX seems okay. Ocracoke is a thin narrow barrier island way down to the South of the Outer Banks off the NC coast and they are used to getting flooded and having some problems at the beach. This was relatively easy, so far, for Ocracoke.