Researchers tested the National Hurricane Center's inland-watch cone on Florida and Georgia residents. It helped them find watch areas, but it did not make them feel more at risk or more likely to act.

The redesigned hurricane map that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) made operational this season helps people find inland areas under hurricane and tropical storm watches, but it does not make them feel more at risk or more likely to protect themselves, according to a Florida State University study in the American Meteorological Society journal Weather, Climate, and Society. The study also found that a long-standing misreading of the "cone of uncertainty" persists: many people still treat the cone's width as the size of the storm.

The finding lands with about five weeks left in the Atlantic hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30. For households from Miami to Tallahassee and Savannah, it is a reminder that a map can be read correctly and still fail to prompt the decisions that keep people safe, such as leaving an evacuation zone or preparing an inland home for damaging wind and flooding.

The stakes are practical. Hurricane winds, tornadoes and flooding routinely reach far inland — well beyond the coastal counties that the cone has historically emphasized.

Better at Spotting Watches, No More Likely to Act

The FSU team, led by Assistant Professor Elizabeth Ray of the School of Communication, surveyed Florida and Georgia residents. Participants saw either the traditional coastal-only cone or the experimental version that adds inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, according to the university.

People who viewed the newer map did a better job of identifying places under watches. That improvement did not carry over to how dangerous they judged the storm to be or whether they planned to take protective steps. Participants also showed no improvement in identifying warning areas, which carry a more urgent message than watches.

That version is no longer experimental. In its 2026 products and services update, NHC said the cone showing all coastal and inland U.S. watches and warnings had become operational after test runs in 2024 and 2025. "These improvements empower communities to prepare earlier and more effectively for dangerous hazards from tropical storms and hurricanes," NHC Director Michael Brennan said when the change was announced.

The Wide-Cone Mistake That Will Not Go Away

The specific error the researchers flagged is simple and persistent. The cone shows the uncertainty in where the storm's center will travel, built from NHC's historical forecast errors. It says nothing about how large the storm is or how far its winds, rain, or surge will reach.

"For years, research has shown that people often mistake a wider cone for a bigger storm," Ray said, as reported by ScienceDaily. "Our findings suggest that even with an updated graphic, that misconception can be hard to shake."

Independent researchers have reached similar conclusions. University of Miami researcher Barbara Millet said at a 2022 American Meteorological Society hurricane conference that "Current forecast products — including the NHC's cone of uncertainty — are systematically misinterpreted by the general public," according to Yale Climate Connections.

The FSU authors stressed that their work does not question the accuracy of NHC forecasts. "The science is excellent," said co-author Patrick Merle, director of the School of Communication. "The question is how we communicate that science so people who aren't meteorologists understand the risk they're facing."

Florida and Gulf Coast Households Feel the Gap

The gap between reading a map and acting on it has shown up in real storms. During Hurricane Ian in 2022, small shifts in the forecast track moved entire Florida counties out of the cone's shaded area, which in some cases was tied to delayed or skipped evacuation calls, WUWF reported.

Those most at risk from misreading the cone include inland residents who assume hurricanes are only a coastal problem, people in mobile homes, newcomers to hurricane country, and anyone relying on a screenshot of the cone shared on social media. A household just outside the cone can still face hurricane-force gusts, tornadoes, and flash flooding.

Evidence check: this was a survey-based experiment that measured stated intentions, not what people actually did during a storm. The public release did not report the sample size, and participants came only from Florida and Georgia, so results may differ elsewhere. The work was funded by an internal FSU SEED grant, and NHC supplied the experimental graphics, a collaboration the university disclosed.

Reading the National Hurricane Center Map the Right Way

Start by treating the cone as a map of where the center might go, not a map of who will be hit. NHC notes that historically, the entire five-day path of a storm's center stays inside the cone only about 60 to 70 percent of the time, so the storm can track outside it.

Next, ignore the cone's width as a measure of storm size. Look instead at NHC's wind speed probabilities, peak storm surge graphics, and the colored watch and warning areas, which now include inland counties. A watch means hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible, while a warning means they are expected.

Then go local. Your National Weather Service forecast office translates the national forecast into county-level impacts, and your county emergency-management office decides evacuation zones, which are based mainly on storm surge rather than the cone. "Don't rely on the cone alone. Pair it with clear, local information about what impacts to expect and what actions to take," Ray said.

Finally, follow official orders. If local officials tell you to evacuate, go — even if the cone's center line points somewhere else.

What happens next: NHC is testing a new ellipse-based experimental cone on hurricanes.gov this season, and researchers say social science testing like this will shape future versions. The bottom line is that a better map helps people find alerts, but only local guidance and early action turn that information into safety.

What Readers Want to Know

What did the Florida State study find?

The updated NHC cone with inland watches and warnings helped people identify watch areas, but it did not raise their sense of risk or their plans to take protective action.

What is the most common misreading of the hurricane cone?

Many people think a wider cone means a bigger storm. The cone actually reflects uncertainty in the track of the storm's center.

Is the inland-alert cone in use now?

Yes. NHC made the cone with coastal and inland U.S. watches and warnings operational for the 2026 hurricane season.

Can I be affected if I am outside the cone?

Yes. Winds, tornadoes, heavy rain, and storm surge can extend well beyond the cone, and the storm's center itself stays inside it only about 60 to 70 percent of the time.

How do I know whether to evacuate?

Follow your county emergency-management office. Evacuation zones are mostly based on storm surge risk, not on the cone.

When does hurricane season end?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.