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HURRICANE MELISSA…CAG POSSIBILITY FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT 29, 2025…12:30 P.M. EDT

15 hours ago 7

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Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
This forecast is long and graphics intense. However, all of the information can make a difference, as the purpose of my site is to try and help keep anyone affected by these systems SAFE!

Prayers to everyone in Jamaica, and those in the path of this storm!
STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:    7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 13*
TOTAL HURRICANES: 5
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4
* (12 TROPICAL…1 SUBTROPICAL)

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

FROM THE NHC
…MELISSA NOW OFFSHORE OF EAST CUBA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC… …DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE FOR CUBA, BAHAMAS, AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS TODAY…

STORM SURGE: Storm surge of 4 to 7 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the southeastern Bahamas today, and minor coastal flooding is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands today. Minor coastal flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the north coast of eastern Cuba and minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands during the next day or so, and now affecting the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and will spread toward Bermuda later this week, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Satellite loop imagery this morning indicated Melissa has exited Cuba, and entered the waters of the Bahamas. As of the 11:00 A.M. advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Hurricane Melissa:
11:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 29
Location: 21.4N;75.6W
Moving: NE 14 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb / 28.76 in.
Max sustained: 100 mph
HURRICANE MELISSA IR AND VIS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

PLEASE USE THE NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK FOR HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND WHICH INCLUDES STORM SURGE

NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/291458.shtml
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/291459.shtml?
AVISO PUBLICO LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT3+shtml/291501.shtml?DISCUSION LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATDSAT3+shtml/291459.shtml?

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas * Southeastern and Central Bahamas * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Haiti * Cuban province of Camaguey * Turks and Caicos Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Cuba should remain sheltered. In the Bahamas, preparations to protect life and property should be completed and residents should remain sheltered. In Bermuda preparations should be underway and be completed before anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

NHC GRAPHICS

RIP CURRENTS

NHC WATCHES AND WARNINGS

Melissa is now under some moderate wind shear. The upper level wind pattern indicates outflow is now limited to a northern outflow jet over the storm, and Melissa is now located over much cooler OHC values.
CIMSS MELISSA WIND SHEAR

CIMSS MELISSA UPPER LEVEL WINDS

MELISSA OCEAN HEAT CONTENT

These factors, along with disruption of the core due to land interaction has caused Melissa to weaken. Once back out over the water, there COULD be some slight fluctuation in strength, and some slight re-intensification could occur. Given that the hurricane will be moving over cooler SST’s, along with the lack of a more defined outflow, and premise of increasing shear, the hurricane should begin a slow weakening trend in the next 24 – 36 hours.

Based on analysis of global models and current SHIPS diagnostics, wind shear is forecast to increase to above 20 kts during the next 24 hours, along with an increase in drier mid level air, indicated by a drop in 700 – 500 mb RH values. In fact, water vapor loop imagery indicated dry air may soon begin to affect the hurricane to its west. Based on my analysis, I agree with the NHC intensity forecast
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT 29/1500Z 21.4N 75.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 23.4N 74.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 26.9N 71.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 31.6N 67.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 37.2N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 43.3N 55.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1200Z 49.0N 48.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1200Z 55.0N 36.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1200Z 58.8N 18.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

There is no change in forecast track based on forecast steering analysis and guidance is very well clustered. Based on this, I agree with the NHC forecast track, and Melissa should pass close to Bermuda, just to the west, late tomorrow.
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z HURRICANE FORECAST MODELS TRACK GUIDANCE

There were no HURRTRACKER graphics issued.
NHC FORECAST TRACK

The following is the ECMWF WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST
ECMWF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION FORECAST

I will continue to monitor Melissa as she approaches Bermuda.

Elsewhere, analysis of 850 mb forecast maps indicate the CAG (Central American Gyre) may become active in a few days. The ECMWF EPS cyclone formation probability map has been consistent in the past 48 hours in a possible probability of development. Shear analysis indicated low shear and a weak radial pattern, with marginal outflow however, MSLP anomaly forecast maps do not indicate any lowering of surface pressures or area of developing low pressure. I will monitor this during the next few days for any significant changes.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY
Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.

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