PROTECT YOUR DNA WITH QUANTUM TECHNOLOGY
Orgo-Life the new way to the future Advertising by AdpathwayDisclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
Thanks to all of you that still follow my forecasts. I truly appreciate each and every one of you!
For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
DONATIONS ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED
Good evening everyone!
Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html
NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/
I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided. In addition, just because some models, or even all models may indicate development, THIS DOES NOT MEAN that something will develop. Posting these models DOES NOT MEAN we as forecasters are trying to scare anyone, or create HYPE. The models are SUGGESTING the areas, where conditions MAY become favorable, and IF some entity makes it to that particular area, and ALL CONDITIONS are favorable, development MAY occur. Before forecasters such as myself and other colleagues even think of making a definitive forecast, we look for both agreement and consistency regarding the model runs, and we analyze EVERY aspect of the atmosphere from 200 mb, down to the surface. So, if you see posts with all the models showing, let’s say a major hurricane hitting an area, keep in mind, IT MAY NOT OCCUR. In my forecasting history, I’ve had portions of some seasons where all the models agreed and were consistent on development, just to have NOTHING develop.
For those who follow me on Facebook, I must ask that you please bookmark this wordpress site, or visit my site on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/groups/950628219042775
Due to the amount of weather groups I belong to, and emails I have to send out, I am not able to post to everyone personally. In posting personally, it takes about 1 hour to get my information out to everybody. Thanks for your understanding.
The following is my updated seasonal forecast:
STORM W’s SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES : 8 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES: 5 – 7
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS: 13
HURRICANES: 9
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4
The following are the storm names for the 2024 hurricane season. As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list. Anything subtropical will be marked in pink:
Alberto | Helene | Oscar |
Beryl | Isaac | Patty |
Chris | Joyce | Rafael |
Debby | Kirk | Sara |
Ernesto | Leslie | Tony |
Francine | Milton | Valerie |
Gordon | Nadine | William |
For those who have followed my over the years, you know as a system approaches the islands, or the U.S. coast, the updates tend to become longer. However the information is critical, and includes links to the NHC watch and warning areas with information regarding hazards affecting land such as wind, storm surge, rainfall, surf, tornadoes, and specific areas along with any changes to the advisory hazards. I also post storm surge maps from SLOSH data software, forecast rainfall, watch and warnings maps, etc. I will also post in general as part of the forecast, animated model maps of the system, current steering layer, etc. In the meantime, I did a little change, and have posted very good hurricane preparedness links to the site. Please click the following link to access this information.
https://stormw.wordpress.com/stormws-toolbox/
Prayers to everyone affected by HELENE, and those in the path of MILTON…Godspeed!
I know this is lengthy, however I HIGHLY suggest you read it in its entirety and slowly…it could save your life!
MILTON has weakened a CATEGORY 4 hurricane on the SAFFIR – SIMPSON scale. As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following was available on MILTON
11:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 08
Location: 22.7°N; 88.4°W
Moving: ENE 9 mph
Min pressure: 929 mb / 27.43 in
Max sustained: 150 mph
Please click the following link for information on watches, warnings and hazards.
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/081455.shtml?
NHC AVISO PUBLICO
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT4+shtml/081457.shtml?
LOCAL NWS PRODUCTS (CLICK ON ALL BLUE BOLD LETTERING FOR YOUR AREA, THEN CLICK ON EVERYTHING ON YOUR NWS LOCAL PAGE)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls4+shtml/081516.shtml?
I CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH TO CLICK THE LINK AND FOLLOW THE LOCAL PRODUCTS…IT MAY SAVE YOUR LIFE!
AS MILTON MAKES LANDFALL, TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE VERY HIGH WINDS. PLEASE USE THE SPC (STORM PREDICTION CENTER) LINK AT THE TOP OF THIS PAGE!
Satellite loop imagery indicates MILTON has grown in size, and water vapor loop imagery indicates dry air may be trying to enter the western portion of the hurricane. I’ll have to see whether or not the dry air can be mixed out, as this would be a factor in whether or not the hurricane can recover:
GOMEX INFRARED, VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES
HURRICANE MILTON WIND FIELD (RADIUS OF 34 KT, 50 KT, AND 64KT WINDS)
Based on the NHC advisory, MILTON was moving toward the ENE 9 mph. Based on analysis this morning, current layer mean steering, 500 mb height maps, and forecast steering maps, indicated there have been no changes in the current or forecast steering pattern, and model track guidance remains tightly clustered, with no changes from 06Z and 12Z. Based on this, I expect MILTON to continue on the NHC forecast track. However, bear in mind, slight fluctuations may continue to occur as the hurricane tries to recover, and given that the atmosphere is fluid and constantly changing. So do not focus on the center line. The following is from the NHC:
I HIGHLY RECOMMEND RESIDENTS ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST, ESPECIALLY THE TAMPA BAY AREA, COMPLETE YOUR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLAN TODAY!!
FROM THE NHC UPDATE
TODAY IS THE LAST FULL DAY FOR FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS
I WILL POST MY PREPAREDNESS LINK AGAIN…I STRONGLY SUGGEST YOU READ AND HEED!
https://stormw.wordpress.com/stormws-toolbox/
06Z AND 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE AND NHC TRACKING MAP
NHC TACK MAPS
Maximum sustained winds were reported to be 150 mph. This puts MILTON at CATEGORY 4 status. MILTON has weakened due to an EWRC (EyeWall Replacement Cycle) much earlier this morning. Analysis of the global models this morning and SHIPS (Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme), show conditions are forecast to remain favorable for some intensification during the next 12 – 18 hours, before wind shear is forecast to increase and some possible dry air intrusion at the mid level. The majority of the global models are a little more forgiving with the shear increase, and indicate this to occur just right before landfall. Still, the models indicate a northern outflow channel persisting over the hurricane, and favorable ocean heat content. Based on this, and since wind shear will be moving with the hurricane, MILTON may weaken as forecast, but the possibility of a little slower rate would exist. Depending on timing and how long it takes the hurricane to recover from this eyewall replacement, once he clears the Yucatan Peninsula interference, a possibility exists he could comeback to a little stronger intensity from current status, briefly. Regardless, MILTON could still be a CATEGORY 3 hurricane at landfall. In fact, all of the hurricane models (which had forecast MILTON’S intensity correctly) indicate around a 956 – 960 mb hurricane at or near landfall (minimal CAT 3). It is also noted the wind field is forecast to increase in size. This will increase the spread of winds across the Florida peninsula. Based on the new intensity data, I believe Milton may be a top end CATEGORY 2 to minimal CATEGORY 3, regarding the immediate Tampa Bay area. The following is from the NHC from the 11:00 a.m discussion:
Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of Florida. Stronger vertical shear is expected to set in about 24 hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will not be enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches shore. Additionally, the first stages of extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the top end of the model envelope, which includes the GFS and ECMWF models, since these models should have a better handle on a potential positive trough interaction. Milton’s wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations should be completed today. Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.
As a reminder, the SAFFIR – SIMPSON scale is as follows:
CATEGORY ONE: 74 – 95 MPH
CATEGORY TWO: 96 – 110 MPH
CATEGORY THREE: 111 – 129 MPH
CATEGORY FOUR: 130 – 156 MPH
CATEGORY FIVE: 157+ MPH
Based on these circumstances, even though it is uncertain at the moment if MILTON can recover and intensify briefly, I have to agree at the moment with the NHC intensity forecast.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 08/1500Z 22.7N 88.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 23.6N 87.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 25.2N 85.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 26.8N 83.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W 85 KT 100 MPH…INLAND
60H 11/0000Z 29.1N 78.4W 65 KT 75 MPH…OVER WATER
72H 11/1200Z 29.7N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1200Z 30.4N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 31.8N 60.6W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
HURRICANE MODELS FORECAST INTENSITY
Since it is very lengthy, I am going to post the forecast discussion link. I strongly advise reading this discussion!
NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION 11: 00 A.M. EDT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/081455.shtml?
The following are storm surge values for a CATEGORY 3 hurricane at mean and high tide for the forecast forward motion of MILTON. Values are plus or minus 20 %.
CAT 3 HURRICANE MEAN TIDE
CAT 3 HURRICANE HIGH TIDE
The following are forecast wave heights from the ECMWF wave model:
ECMWF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST
MAXIMUM INDIVIDUAL WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST
Graphics and information from the NHC.
5 DAY RAINFALL FORECAST
I will continue to monitor this system very closely until landfall. I do not know if I will be posting an update tonight or not.
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]. Please make the subject WEATHER INQUIRY. If you wish to be added to my email clients list for a copy of my forecasts, please use the email address I have here, and send your email address referencing forecast data. ALL emails are sent blind carbon copy for your privacy.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST