Hurricane Polo weakened to a Category 4 storm with 155 mph (250 km/h) winds on Thursday morning, Sept. 24, hours after regaining Category 5 strength, and forecasters now expect it to cross Baja California Sur early next week as a weakening hurricane. In its Thursday morning forecast discussion, the National Hurricane Center said its track takes Polo away from Mexico's southwestern coast on Thursday and then over Baja California Sur in four to five days.

At 9 a.m. CST Thursday, Polo was about 150 miles (245 km) south of Manzanillo, moving west-northwest at 10 mph with a minimum central pressure of 928 millibars. Figures in this report come from that advisory package, Advisory 16. Polo's forecast is changing quickly, and readers should check the newest NHC and Mexican government advisories.

The shift matters for the peninsula, home to the resort cities of Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo and a popular destination for American travelers. The NHC said swells will spread toward Baja California Sur on Friday and into the weekend, likely causing life-threatening surf, rip currents and coastal flooding well before the center arrives.

A Second Peak, Then Another Eyewall Cycle

Polo's intensity has swung sharply this week. At 6:40 p.m. CST on Wednesday, the NHC issued a special update saying satellite estimates showed Polo had "quickly strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane" with 160 mph (260 km/h) winds, after dipping to Category 4 earlier that day.

By 9 a.m. CST Thursday, forecasters lowered the estimate to 155 mph. Satellite data showed a new outer eyewall forming, a sign that another eyewall replacement cycle was beginning. "Fluctuations in strength seem likely over the next day or so," NHC forecaster Beven wrote.

The official forecast shows little change through Thursday night and slight strengthening on Friday, followed by slow weakening as wind shear increases. It shows winds near 130 mph by early Sunday, about 115 mph by early Monday and a sharp drop as the center crosses the peninsula, reaching about 85 mph by early Tuesday over the Gulf of California. Those are forecast values with real uncertainty, not guaranteed landfall intensities.

The Timing Picture for Baja California Sur

Track guidance has come into much better agreement, the NHC said. A ridge building west from northern Mexico should steer Polo generally westward for about a day and a half, after which a trough over the northeastern Pacific is expected to turn the storm north and northeast around the ridge.

The main uncertainty is speed. Some models, including the GFS and Google DeepMind's model, move Polo faster, and the official forecast leans toward them, while the UKMET and the regional hurricane models are notably slower. That difference could shift arrival timing.

Earlier timelines have already changed. The Baja California government said earlier in the week that Polo could approach the south of the peninsula by Saturday, FOX 5 San Diego reported. The NHC's Thursday forecast places the center over Baja California Sur later, early in the week of Sept. 28.

No hurricane watch or warning had been issued for Baja California Sur as of Thursday morning. A tropical storm warning covered Mexico's coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo, with a tropical storm watch west of Manzanillo to Playa Perula. The NHC urged interests on the peninsula to monitor updates and have their preparedness plans in place.

Record Intensification in Context

Polo's rise earlier in the week was among the fastest on record. Its winds climbed 110 mph in 24 hours, from a 50 mph tropical storm on Monday morning to a 160 mph Category 5 on Tuesday morning, according to CNN, which noted the NHC called the rate "truly remarkable." Only Hurricane Patricia, whose winds jumped 120 mph in 2015, has intensified faster by that measure in the eastern Pacific.

A NOAA hurricane hunter mission early Tuesday afternoon found winds of 180 mph and a central pressure of 892 millibars, The Weather Channel reported, making Polo the strongest tropical cyclone on Earth so far in 2026. Colorado State University researcher Phil Klotzbach said that pressure is the second-lowest on record in the eastern Pacific, behind only Patricia, according to Yale Climate Connections.

That record-setting rise happened Monday and Tuesday. The Category 5 return on Wednesday evening was a separate, smaller fluctuation.

Polo is the third Category 5 hurricane of the Pacific season, after Genevieve and Lowell. Klotzbach attributed its rapid strengthening to warm water and favorable winds tied to El Niño. "There are all the ingredients that hurricanes need to get really strong really fast," he told the Associated Press. No formal attribution study has linked this storm's intensity to climate change.

Travelers, Surf and Southern California

For travelers heading to Los Cabos, the practical concern this weekend is dangerous surf and rip currents, followed by possible hurricane conditions early next week. Travelers should check with airlines and hotels about changes, consider enrolling in the State Department's Smart Traveler Enrollment Program and follow instructions from Mexican civil protection authorities. U.S. officials have advised against going into the water or walking on beaches during dangerous ocean conditions.

In Southern California, forecasters said Polo could bring large waves and high tides early next week, FOX 5 San Diego reported. Beachgoers should watch for high surf advisories from the National Weather Service office in San Diego.

Along Mexico's southwestern coast, the NHC said heavy rain could still produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain, with an additional 1 to 2 inches possible in coastal central Jalisco and Guerrero as of Thursday morning.

The next NHC advisories will show whether watches are needed for Baja California Sur, the most important signal for residents and travelers on the peninsula.

Polo Timeline So Far

Sept. 24, 9 a.m. CST: NHC estimates Polo at 155 mph, Category 4, and forecasts a track over Baja California Sur early next week.

Sept. 23, 6:40 p.m. CST: NHC says Polo has restrengthened into a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds.

Sept. 22: Polo reaches Category 5 after a 110 mph increase in 24 hours, then peaks at 180 mph with a central pressure of 892 millibars.

The bottom line: Polo is a Category 4 hurricane moving away from mainland Mexico, but forecasters expect it to turn toward Baja California Sur and cross the peninsula early next week as a weakening hurricane. Travelers and residents should prepare now and watch for new watches or warnings.

What Readers Want to Know

How strong is Hurricane Polo now?

As of 9 a.m. CST Thursday, Sept. 24, the NHC estimated Polo's winds at 155 mph, a Category 4 hurricane, after it briefly returned to Category 5 on Wednesday evening.

Will Polo hit Baja California?

The NHC forecast shows the center passing over Baja California Sur early next week as a weakening hurricane. Timing and intensity remain uncertain.

When will Los Cabos feel effects?

Swells are expected to reach Baja California Sur on Friday and into the weekend. Stronger winds and rain would come closer to the center's approach early next week.

How fast did Polo intensify?

Its winds increased by 110 mph in 24 hours from Monday to Tuesday, second only to Hurricane Patricia's 2015 record in the eastern Pacific.

Will Southern California be affected?

Forecasters said large waves and high tides could reach Southern California early next week. Watch for high surf advisories from the National Weather Service.

What should travelers do?

Check with airlines and hotels, consider enrolling in the State Department's Smart Traveler Enrollment Program, stay out of rough surf, and follow Mexican civil protection instructions.