Hurricane Simon weakened to a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds near 125 mph (205 km/h) Sunday evening as its center hugged the coast of west-central Mexico, and forecasters extended a hurricane watch north of El Roblito to Bahía Tempehuaya in Sinaloa. At 6 p.m. CST (00:00 UTC Monday), the National Hurricane Center placed Simon about 50 miles (80 kilometers) south of Cabo Corrientes, the headland at the southern edge of the Puerto Vallarta bay area, moving northwest at 5 mph.

The downgrade does not end the threat — far from it. Simon remains a major hurricane, and the hurricane center said it is still expected to be a strong hurricane as it passes near the coast overnight, with hurricane conditions spreading northward into Monday. The new watch matters because the forecast now keeps Simon offshore longer and turns it back toward the coast on Wednesday, putting communities farther north on alert for a second round of wind and rain.

A Category 4 Peak, Then a Slow Slide Along the Coast

Simon peaked as a Category 4 hurricane early Sunday. In its 6 a.m. CST advisory, the hurricane center reported maximum sustained winds near 150 mph (240 km/h) and a central pressure of 933 millibars, with the eye about 60 miles west of Manzanillo. Overnight, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters measured a pressure of 928 millibars inside a small inner core.

By Sunday evening, pressure had risen to 951 millibars and winds had dropped by about 25 mph. Hurricane-force winds still extended up to 25 miles (35 kilometers) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds reached 60 miles (95 kilometers).

Whether Simon formally made landfall is still unclear. In the overnight forecast discussion, forecaster Blake wrote that it was "simply too close to call whether landfall will occur" and described the intensity outlook as a very low confidence forecast, because a small shift east or west could mean rapid weakening over land or a stronger storm offshore.

That uncertainty explains the watch. The 6 p.m. CST advisory said Simon should move a little farther from the coast on Monday, remain a hurricane on Monday and Tuesday, then turn north and north-northeast and head back toward the coast on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night.

The Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito and for Las Islas Marías. The Tropical Storm Watch for the coast east of Punta San Telmo to Lázaro Cárdenas that appeared in earlier advisories is no longer listed.

Rain and Mudslide Risk in Jalisco, Colima, and Nayarit

Rain — not wind — is the hazard most likely to cause lasting damage. The hurricane center now forecasts an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated additional amounts of 8 inches, across parts of Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and Sinaloa through early Thursday. Isolated storm totals of 30 inches (76 centimeters) remain possible over parts of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco.

"This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides or worsen any on-going flooding, especially in areas of steep terrain," the center said. That risk is sharpest for communities between the Sierra Madre and the ocean, where steep slopes drain quickly into narrow coastal valleys.

The center also warned of a dangerous storm surge near and east of where the center approaches land, accompanied by large and destructive waves, and of life-threatening surf and rip currents along the southwestern and west-central coast for several days.

Speaking to the Associated Press on Sunday morning, hurricane center specialist Philippe Papin said the eye was moving very close to or parallel to the coast. "We're expecting catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts along that west central coast of Mexico where the hurricane warning is currently in effect," he said.

Housing quality shapes who faces the greatest risk. The AP noted that many residents living inland and uphill from the Puerto Vallarta resort zone live in homes that may not withstand the storm. The Mexican insurers' association AMIS said only 21% of homes in Jalisco, Michoacán, Colima and Guerrero are insured, according to The Rio Times, so many families will face repair costs on their own.

Airport, Beach, and School Closures for Travelers

Puerto Vallarta, one of the most popular Mexican destinations for U.S. tourists, is the clearest point of disruption for American travelers. Its international airport suspended flights from Saturday evening until 8 a.m. Monday, Oct. 12, with reopening dependent on a weather assessment, The Rio Times reported. Bus operator ETN Turistar also suspended departures to Manzanillo, Puerto Vallarta, Nuevo Vallarta, Tepic and other coastal destinations.

Local governments moved people out of harm's way before the worst weather arrived. Jalisco suspended classes on Friday and Monday in 22 coastal municipalities and began evacuating at-risk areas, the AP reported. Mexico's Navy evacuated 76 people by sea from the bayside villages of Quimixto and Yelapa, and Nayarit closed all its beaches, opened 171 shelters and banned alcohol sales.

Travelers already in the region should stay indoors or in designated shelters, follow orders from Mexican civil protection authorities, and keep away from beaches, rivers, and streams. Anyone booked on flights to Puerto Vallarta or nearby airports should contact the airline directly rather than relying on social media posts about reopening.

Residents in the new watch area in Sinaloa have time to prepare. A watch means hurricane conditions are possible, not expected, so this is the window to secure outdoor items, charge phones, gather water and medications, and confirm shelter locations with local authorities.

Next Advisories and Remaining Uncertainty

The hurricane center issues full advisories every six hours, with intermediate updates in between while watches and warnings are in effect. The key questions are how much land Simon interacts with Monday, how strong it is when it turns back toward the coast, and exactly where that second approach occurs.

Official damage and casualty counts from Jalisco, Colima and Nayarit had not been released as of Sunday evening. Damage assessments generally begin only after winds ease.

The bottom line is that Simon has weakened from its Category 4 peak but remains a dangerous major hurricane, with flooding rain and mudslides posing the longest-lasting risk. People along the coast from Michoacán to Sinaloa should follow Mexican authorities and check each new hurricane center advisory, including the agency's Simon advisory archive, as the forecast evolves.

What Readers Want to Know

How strong is Hurricane Simon now?

As of 6 p.m. CST Sunday, Oct. 11, Simon was a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 125 mph, down from a Category 4 peak of about 150 mph earlier Sunday.

Did Simon make landfall?

The hurricane center had not announced a landfall as of Sunday evening. Its center was moving parallel to and very near the coast, and forecasters said landfall was too close to call.

Which areas are under warnings or watches?

A Hurricane Warning covers Punta San Telmo to El Roblito and Las Islas Marías. A new Hurricane Watch covers the coast north of El Roblito to Bahía Tempehuaya in Sinaloa.

How much rain could fall?

Isolated storm totals of 30 inches are possible in parts of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, with additional rain of 2 to 4 inches, locally 8 inches, in Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and Sinaloa through early Thursday.

Is Puerto Vallarta's airport open?

Flights were suspended until 8 a.m. Monday, Oct. 12, with reopening dependent on weather. Travelers should confirm with their airline.

Why is Simon expected to return to the coast?

Forecasters expect Simon to drift slightly offshore Monday, then turn north and north-northeast and approach the coast again on Wednesday, though the track forecast carries significant uncertainty.

When is the next update?

The National Hurricane Center issues full advisories every six hours, with intermediate advisories in between.