Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
PLEASE keep the residents of Texas in your prayers regarding the terrible flash flooding tragedy and those lost.

I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you read in the entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown. 

I will be out of the office on Wednesday, Aug. 27 to celebrate my birthday, and intend to resume forecasting on Thursday the 28th

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   5
TOTAL HURRICANES:         1
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


Africa satellite loop imagery shows diminishing  tropical wave activity
MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE

The NHC has designated a HIGH (100%) probability for development of INVEST 90L during the next 48 hours.  The ECMWF EPS probability is indicating a 95% probability:
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST 24 – 72 HOURS

As of the update, the following information was available from the ATCF BTK file for 12Z.
8:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 23
Location: 25.1°N; 62.2°W
Moving: NNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1012mb / 29.88 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph
The INVEST is moving toward the NNW, and should continue on this motion for the next 24 hours.  Based on analysis of current forecast steering layers maps, 90L should continue through the weakness in the subtropical ridge, and eventually turn more toward the north in about 36 hours, then toward the NNE.  I prefer the TVCA consensus track. 
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)


While TPW has increased slightly, and an upper level outflow pattern has become established, 90L is still experiencing around 20 kts of shear, and marginal mid level RH values.  The upper level pattern may help offset the wind shear somewhat.  Based on the current SHIPS diagnostic report however, wind shear is forecast to decrease soon, and analysis of the global models indicates a steady increase in both TPW and mid level relative humidity values during the next 24 through 72 hours.  Models also indicate that a radial shear pattern may develop through this time frame.  It is noted that INVEST 90L has developed a closed low level circulation and is now designated an area of low pressure area.

From the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook:

INVEST 90L SATELLITE LOOP

CIMSS RECENT TPW IMAGE

MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS


CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS

Based on my analysis, with the change of a little more favorable conditions in the forecast, especially with a now closed LLC, I have to agree at the moment with the NHC in that a Tropical Depression could develop soon, and 90L now has the possibility to become a brief, minimal Tropical Storm by sometime tomorrow.  This will depend a lot on what the scheduled reconnaissance flight finds when they arrive.  It is noted, that all intensity forecast models bring 90L to Tropical Storm status within 36 hours.

I will continue to monitor this system very closely during the next 72 hours.

Elsewhere, the NHC has assigned a LOW (20%) probability for development during the next 7 days for INVEST 99L, and the ECMWF EPS now indicates a 50% probability, in the graphic posted earlier in this forecast
NHC 7 DAY GTWO LINKED

Current satellite loop imagery indicates 99L looks less organized than a day ago, with limited weak convection, and surface winds analysis still indicates the lack of a closed LLC.  The system is currently under 25 – 30 kts of  southerly shear, and is still contending with a good amount of drier air.  Based on analysis, dry air will be the main hindering factor during the next 48 hours, as 90L approaches the Lesser Antilles.  Based on the current SHIPS diagnostic report, shear is forecast to decrease by 24 hours through 72 – 84 hours.  Mid level relative humidity and precipitable water will only be marginal during this time.  However, and increase in TPW and mid level RH is forecast to become  a little more favorable and a radial shear pattern is forecast to begin as what may be left of 90L enters the extreme W. Caribbean in 4 – 5 days.  Right now, it doesn’t appear development is likely in the short term, if at all, especially with the vast amount of dry air surrounding 99L.  
INVEST 99L SATELLITE LOOP


MULTIPLATFORM SATELLITE SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS

This system is currently moving just north of due W. (280 degrees).  As of the 12Z ATCF BTK update, the following was available on INVEST 99L:
8:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 23
Location: 11.9°N; 48.4°W
Moving: W at 25 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb / 29.85 in.
Max sustained: 35 mph
INVEST 99L initial motion is west (280 degrees).  Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, this should continue for the next 48 – 72 hours, with fluctuations to the WNW and back to W.  Based on this, I agree with track guidance and currently prefer the TVCA consensus model.
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE (LINKED FOR LARGER IMAGE)


I will continue to monitor this system during the next 48 – 72 hours for any changes to the forecast.

The forecast pattern still indicates we should witness a good increase in tropical activity approximately around Sep. 06 based on the MJO forecast.  I will also be monitoring the Gulf, due to the forecast temperature anomalies indicating colder temperatures for the northern and eastern portions of the U.S.

Elsewhere, I am not expecting any development for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS