Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
PLEASE keep the residents of Texas in your prayers regarding the terrible flash flooding tragedy and those lost.  

I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you read in the entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.  This forecast is graphics intense, but loaded with good information.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   5
TOTAL HURRICANES:         1
MAJOR HURRICANES:        0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


Africa satellite loop imagery indicates tropical waves across the continent
MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE 

As of issuance of this synopsis, the NHC has decreased the probability for development of 98L to LOW (20%)
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

As of the 12Z ATCF BTK report, the following information was available on INVEST 98L:
8:00 AM EDT Fri Aug 15
Location: 25.0°N; 96.8°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb / 29.85 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph
Based on analysis of current and forecast steering maps, INVEST 98L is moving toward the NW.  I expect this motion to continue until the system comes ashore over or near the Brownsville Texas area later today.  I prefer the TVCA consensus track in the updated guidance:
12Z RAL GUIDANCE INVEST 98L

INVEST 98L SATELLITE LOOP

Satellite loop imagery indicates convection has increased dramatically since overnight, and it does look like it’s organized.  However, reconnaissance aircraft report the system still lacks a low level circulation, hence it has not been upgraded.  Analysis indicates favorable moisture from the surface to the mid levels which is forecast during the next 12 hours.  Analysis of recent wind shear from CIMSS indicates 98L to be under about 20 – 25 kts of wind shear now, and the forecast for the next 12 hours indicates this pattern to continue.  Upper level outflow is forecast to improve within this time limit.  Based on this analysis, the slight possibility of a LLC developing could occur, prior to 98L coming ashore, however the chance for a depression has decreased to a point where it would be possible just as the system gets close to crossing the coast in a few hours.

From the NHC update:  Shower and thunderstorm activity has persisted in association with a disturbance located about 75 miles off the coast of northeastern Mexico or southern Texas coastline. The system could become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves inland this afternoon or evening. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the next couple of days, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning.

The following are recent Doppler radar loops out of Brownsville, TX.
KBRO DOPPLER RADAR


I will continue to monitor INVEST 98L during the next 6 hours for any significant changes in the forecast.

ERIN was just upgraded to a Hurricane and, continues to move to the WNW, and continues to now become slowly better organized.  The latest information is based on the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC:
11:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 14
Location: 18.2°N; 56.1°W
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb / 29.41 in.
Max sustained: 75 mph
PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/151446.shtml?

AVISO PUBLICO
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT5+shtml/151447.shtml?

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Anguilla and Barbuda
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Sint Maarten

NHC KEY MESSAGES


ERIN is currently moving toward the WNW.   Based on my analysis of not only global models, but current and forecast steering layers maps, ERIN should continue on this general motion for approximately the next 48 hours.  Thereafter, a more NW motion should begin, as ERIN begins to feel the effects of a break / weakness in the subtropical ridge. While I currently agree with the track guidance in that ERIN eventually turns into the weakness, I prefer the TVCA consensus guidance which is just left of the NHC OFCI track, and I still favor the current ECMWF forecast motion.
ERIN 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

NHC AND HURRTRACKER FORECAST MAPS


ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES ANIMATION 120 HOURS





Satellite loop imagery indicates ERIN continues to become better organized.  Water vapor imagery has shown she continues to mix out dry air, and moistening the surrounding atmosphere, although overnight, there was some slight dry air ingestion into the system, which put a temporary hold on the intensification rate.
ERIN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY



The environment surrounding ERIN has become more favorable, with ERIN having been able to mix out a good amount of the dry air that has been hindering her, and becoming better organized during the past few hours.  TPW has increased slightly, and a radial shear pattern is established and just off center to the west from the center of circulation.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR

Based on analysis of forecast wind shear, upper level winds, mid level RH and surface moisture (TPW – Total Precipitable Water), conditions for ERIN are forecast to improve during the next 24 – 36 hours.  Current forecast conditions suggest that the radial shear pattern will improve and become centered over the hurricane, with a favorable increase in 700 – 500 mb relative humidity and precipitable water, both in a tighter pattern within and around the COC (Center of Circulation) and remain intact during the next 5 days.  Wind shear is now forecast to remain below 20 kts, and the upper level outflow pattern is forecast to become better established and well defined.  The motion of ERIN will continue to take it over warmer SST’s, with an increase in OHC (Ocean Heat Content) to around 75 – 100KJ/cm2.  Lower OHC will still support a hurricane, however the minimum value required for very steady to rapid intensification is 50KJ/cm2.  Based on the hiccup with the dry air ingestion earlier, I believe the chance for ERIN to rapidly intensify has been reduced but, may still briefly occur.  SHIPS diagnostics is indicating a 35% probability for a 25 kt increase wind maximum winds over the next 24 hours.  This will hinge on how fast ERIN can recover from the brief dry air ingestion.  I do however feel once she hits the higher SST’s and OHC that a fairly steady intensification rate will occur.
OHC MAP FROM CIMSS

Based on this, analysis of SHIPS diagnostics, and more accurate tools, I do believe ERIN will become a major CAT 3 hurricane, possibly CAT4.  Again, to achieve this, there has to be NO DEVIATION in the forecast parameters mentioned.  Currently I agree with the NHC intensity forecast at the moment.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 15/1500Z 18.2N 56.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 18.9N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 19.8N 61.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 20.6N 63.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 21.6N 66.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 22.7N 67.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 23.8N 69.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 26.5N 70.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 30.3N 71.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
I will continue to monitor the situation for any significant changes during the next 72 hours.

Elsewhere, I am not expecting tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you too the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS