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Is August 2025 More Like September? If So........ Tropics Will Be Bubbling Red Hot Soon.... Erin May Form off Carolina Coast. Or a Tropical Wave?? Where's Erin? One Wave After Another... One Way or Another... You'll Need Those Hurricane Supplies or Plan

8 hours ago 4

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8 AM came out early today.

Autumn like cool weather came early too.

It's a "Fake Fall" and fading fast.

But still illusions can be sweet.

Read the wording.

"weak area of low pressure formed"

"from a surface trough"

"a tropical depression could still form...

...by this weekend"

Again low pressure can become tropical this time of year when fronts slowly slide along landing in warm tropical waters off the coast. The low can spin up. You know the drill, it happens often and this year it's been a theme. Soon we will move on with the theme to the distant tropical waters in the Atlantic where waves will eventually develop. You can see the orange formation zone from the last tropical wave inching up towards where a TD or Erin may form off of the East Coast. Erin, if she forms, will track off after Dexter and the tropical wave that will either be Erin or Fernand if it develops will do the same. Round and round and round they go until something changes the pattern.

A tropical depression could form this weekend. Gee, there's a lot of that going around it seems.

What's up next down the tropical road after this African Wave? Well, as often happens the first wave goes high and the wave behind it stays low. Low means it has a stronger chance of making it to our side of the world be it PR and the Virgin Islands or Cuba or Florida or into the Gulf. Long range models hint at many things and I need more than hinting but I'm picking up the drift that the next wave may be something to worry on. And no I am not counting out this wave with a hefty 60% chance from getting caught under a building ridge and I am not ready to scream "Fish Storm" as it has not even formed yet.

I'll be busy today. I may update later on this evening if anything compelling shows up on the models or the beautiful satellite imagery. My husband's cousin's wife passed away a few days ago. So we have some commitments and taking some time to do a few things today. And, yet as I listen to the rain still falling, not wavering in it's steady beat at all I'll be glad to get away a bit. I love rain but I prefer it when there's wind involved. But loving the cooler temperatures up here this week and loving every minute of the anomalous "Fake Fall" as I was so sick of the heavy, claustrophobic heat we had back in July. July seemed like August and August is feeling a lot like September and in the tropics that means "play ball" and so hope your hurricane plans are ready to put into action.

From www.spaghettimodels.com

Mikes Weather Page

The hazards outlook forecasts tropical activity.

Red inside lighter red.

Red Hot on the map in the MDR.

One wave or another will develop.

There will be a red circle.

And, possibly an actual Cone.

Use this time wisely.

Click on the link above

For the whole list.

That heavy rain woke me up at 4 AM as the windows were open and I could actually hear the rain. Woke up at 5 AM again and thought, "wow still raining, it has a nice beat" at 6 AM I decided I needed to look at the radar, satellite imagery and the models. Lots to do today. Lots to think on in the tropics. It's actually raining heavier at 8 AM then it was when I started typing this blog. We have a Flood Watch in Raleigh. Durham up the road has a Flood Warning and there was flooding in Charlotte last night near South Park Mall.

This image from Zoom Earth shows much.

Area off the East Coast.

Purple Dot.

Dex exiting stage right.

Upper Stage Right.

IF Erin forms off East Coast.

She will run off after Dex.

It's called a pattern.

Patterns produce.

This pattern produced Chantal.

Chantal was a month ago.

More thoughts on development below...

I know I have pointed this out for a long while. We have had fronts, troughs moving East and now dipping South in the depths of the Summer. Worth noting the original forecast for Andrew in late August was for it to catch a trough and pull further North up towards Carolinas.... Georgia maybe. South Florida seemed safe, but the front evaporated in the hot 1992 August Sunshine and the ridge built in and Andrew turned West intensified and never looked back at the old model suggestions.

Ridges and troughs are everything when it comes to steering hurricanes around the tropical waters. A trough off the coast of the East Coast will often grab the front and take it out to sea; if it gets too close it might ride the front up the coast line. Even weak fronts get a vote! And, if a hurricane is moving into the Gulf and there's a frontal boundary to the North it grabs the Cane and pulls it inland sometimes with great force pounding it's way deep into areas that often escape hurricane problems.

Remember that as we move further into the Season and some tropical wave stays low and becomes a Gulf threat and remember later in the season over the latent, crazy hot waters of the Gulf hurricanes can become dangerous. The garden variety we have had of late forming in the warm waters of the Georgia Bight off the Carolina Coast have been weaker, early systems with enough intensity to get a name and yet their fame is limited to a few weeks in the Summer of 2025 as few will remember Dexter.

EURO