The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory says inflation flattened over 24 hours, pushing its countdown back a day and keeping uncertainty high after an unusual episode 55.

Update Note: This article reports new information involving Kilauea's episode 56 forecast following Nature World News' earlier coverage of episode 55. Latest verified source: USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory daily update issued 8:10 a.m. HST Monday, Oct. 26, 2026. Tilt figures are through that update.

Kilauea's next burst of lava fountaining has been pushed back — by one day. In its daily update issued at 8:10 a.m. HST Monday, the U.S. Geological Survey's Hawaiian Volcano Observatory said summit reinflation had plateaued over the previous 24 hours, with minor deflation that morning. That shifted the forecast for episode 56 to between Oct. 31 and Nov. 6, 2026.

The change matters for anyone planning a trip to Hawaii Volcanoes National Park over the Halloween weekend, and for residents of Kaʻū communities downwind of the summit. A day earlier, the window had been Oct. 30 through Nov. 5. The volcano alert level remains at ADVISORY, and the aviation color code remains YELLOW.

Hawaiian Volcano Observatory scientists still cannot name a day within the window. They also cannot say how high the fountains will reach, how long the episode will last, or where the plume will drift, which depends on winds at the time.

Tiltmeters Behind the Countdown

The forecast rests on ground tilt. As magma refills the reservoir beneath Halemaʻumaʻu crater, the summit swells, and the Uēkahuna tiltmeter, known as UWD, records that swelling in microradians. During episode 55, the summit deflated by 21 microradians. Since the episode ended, UWD has recovered 13.2 microradians, slightly below the 13.3 reported Sunday.

Scientists model how fast the summit is regaining that lost tilt and project when it will reach levels that preceded past fountaining. When inflation slows or stalls, the projected start date moves later. That is why the window has drifted since HVO first issued it. The Oct. 20 notice gave a preliminary window of Oct. 27 through Nov. 6, and later updates narrowed and nudged it to the current dates.

HVO has attached a clear caveat. In its Oct. 25 update, the observatory wrote that "there is still uncertainty in whether inflation will remain regular and predictable." The forecast assumes the magma system has returned to its earlier rhythm, which is not guaranteed.

Episode 55 Broke the Pattern

That caution comes from what happened before the last episode. Kilauea has erupted episodically from vents in Halemaʻumaʻu since Dec. 23, 2024, with fountaining episodes that usually lasted less than 12 hours, separated by pauses of two weeks or more. Episode 55 departed from that pattern.

Before it began, summit tiltmeters recorded pressurization beyond levels that typically trigger fountaining, and inflation was irregular, with long stretches of deflation or no change. The episode was preceded by 39 days of intermittent overflows, a record for precursory activity. During that period, a series of short-lived vents opened in Halemaumau and a shallow dike was emplaced beneath Kaluapele, the summit caldera.

Nature World News previously reported on episode 55's 720-foot fountains and abrupt end, when the observatory said irregular deformation prevented a forecast. Since then, reinflation has followed the normal pattern seen after most episodes, which allowed HVO to restore a forecast window. The fountaining itself began at 3:19 a.m. HST Oct. 17 and ended at 9:03 a.m. HST, with fountains near 720 feet (220 meters) from the north vent and a plume reaching about 25,000 feet above sea level.

Current conditions are typical of a pause. Strong glow continues from the west vent and weaker glow from the north vent, while the south vent remains buried under tephra from episode 55. Low-level tremor continues with occasional pulses.

Ka'ū Communities and Park Visitors

The eruption remains inside a closed area of the park, and no homes are threatened by lava. The more practical household effects come from gas and tephra. During pauses, the summit typically releases 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes of sulfur dioxide per day. With northeast winds, the plume drifts southwest over the Kaʻū Desert, and that gas forms vog that can irritate lungs.

Episode 55's tephra fell mostly within the closed area southwest of the vents, but HVO warns that light particles, including the glassy strands called Pele's hair, can be carried farther and lifted again by wind. People with asthma, other respiratory conditions, young children and older adults are most sensitive to vog. Residents can check vog guidance from the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network and limit outdoor exertion when it thickens.

Visitors should treat the window as a probability — not a schedule. Check the Hawaii Volcanoes National Park website for open viewing areas and stay out of closures. HVO stresses that the caldera rim around Halemaumau, closed since late 2007, can crack and slump without warning. Anyone who encounters ash or Pele's hair should avoid rubbing their eyes and keep pets indoors.

Watch for a few signals in HVO updates. Small precursory overflows and spattering from the north vent have preceded many past episodes, and HVO issues a separate aviation notice when fountaining begins. Its livestream cameras show the vents in real time.

Next Signals From the Observatory

HVO issues a daily update each morning and will revise the window again if tilt rates change. If inflation resumes steadily, the window could tighten. If it stalls again, the dates could slide later. Nature World News will report the start of episode 56 once HVO confirms it.

The bottom line: episode 56 is most likely between Oct. 31 and Nov. 6, but HVO's own caveats mean the timing could shift. Visitors should plan around park guidance, and downwind residents should watch vog conditions rather than the calendar.

What Readers Want to Know

When is episode 56 expected? Between Oct. 31 and Nov. 6, 2026, according to HVO's Oct. 26 update. The window can still move.

Why did the forecast change? Summit tilt flattened over 24 hours, with minor deflation Monday morning, which slows the projected refill.

Is Kilauea dangerous to nearby towns? Lava remains inside a closed area of the national park. Vog and drifting tephra are the main concerns for downwind communities.

What are the alert levels now? Volcano Alert Level: ADVISORY and Aviation Color Code: YELLOW.

Can I see the next episode? Possibly, from open park viewpoints or USGS livestreams. Check the park website before going.