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Lots of Color on NHC Map. Models Promise Everything on Every Run Yet Nothing Spinning Yet.

1 day ago 16

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Starting with closest AOI

Orange 40% in 7 days
10% in 2 days.

There's a huge feeling of spin here.

Down South of the AOI N of Cuba.

Off the coast theres a moisture feed.

A front near by hanging in slow motion.

Dexter still weak out there.

Originally models showed a system forming close in to the coast then moving to the North near OBX and then up the coast. Scary models with it tormenting various cities along the way North towards New England. Then models took it across Florida... down near Jax. Then models showed a problem for Charleston or Wrightsville. There's been no consensus. People, meteorologists that I trust tremendously, have said it should sort of "appear" out of nowhere and have some spin in the vicinity of the Outer Banks and then staying weak (maybe) moves lumbering it's way North to somewhere or maybe even out to sea like Dexter. This has to do with the pattern currently evolving in that region that should support development. Possibly but down the road.

In the absence of models gaining traction or a grasp..

..let's look at the NOAA forecast maps for Friday.

A LOW off the Carolina Coast.

Rain forecast.

A lot of rain over next 5 days.

NOAA forecast maps

Shows a weak Low on and off of OBX

Then moves North but offshore.

Not a Lock In Forecast.

Could get a name.

Could be stronger.

Could stay closer to shore.

NOAA updates in real time.

Now "THE WAVE" everyone's watching.

50% chances in 7 Days.

Note there's a wave behind this one.

What can I really tell you other than the models have been mostly inconsistent offering wild solutions of landfall in New Orleans, the Florida Coast around Vero Beach (after South Florida) and I believe it may have aimed at Charleston while other models take it into the Gulf. Some models move it FAST. Others so slow. Seriously if there's any place you want to see it end up there's a model solution for that one. And, now of course models have gotten bored with this wave and some let it loose out at sea and then develop the one behind it. I've seen years with better model agreement. Add in we have the AI models now and some go out to August 18th. I know you are curious. Totally unreliable.

EURO for August 19th!

Do you believe it when the 15 day forecast shows snow?

Okay, maybe you do...

Depends on how badly you want snow...

GFS for August 16th shows....

..it anchored over the Cape.

Perhaps hoping to see a rocket launch.

Getting kind of ludicrous.

Hey if this verified I'll give it the credit it'd be due.

Rainy day out on the Cape... next few days.

Again down by Georgia and SC wild weather.

There is no center to the area off Carolinas.

Below there is no center to the wave.

As you can see.... nothing yet.

Check back tomorrow.

If you add 40% and 50% we almost get 100% lol chances something will form. NO THATS NOT THE WAY YOU'RE SUPPOSED TO DO IT! But it's worked for me before :)

This is this the sort of season where you could lose your mind if you believe every model that shows you what will happen but then changes in the next run. Lots of color on the NHC but nothing developing tonight... tho I do believe there is a good chance this wave or the one behind it will try and reach out coastline.

Work on being Hurricane Ready.

Hang in there .... red circles will be on the map soon enough this month.

If I see something I do think will happen I will say it. That's for sure.