Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
PLEASE keep the residents of Texas in your prayers regarding the terrible flash flooding tragedy and those lost.

I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you read in the entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.  This forecast is graphics intense, but loaded with good information.  I may not be able to update tomorrow, due to 2 medical appointments.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   5
TOTAL HURRICANES:         1
MAJOR HURRICANES:        1

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

ATLANTIC IR AND WV LOOP IMAGERY


Africa satellite loop imagery had a glitch this evening and will not be available.
MTG-I1 AFRICA SATELLITE IMAGE 
ERIN went through an EWRC earlier today, and continues to recover.  The following information was available on ERIN as of the 8:00 p.m. intermediate advisory from the NHC
8:00 PM EDT SUN Aug 16
Location: 22.1°N; 68.8°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 946 mb / 27.94 in.
Max sustained: 125 mph
ERIN SATELLITE LOOP

PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/172349.shtml?

AVISO PUBLICO
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT5+shtml/172350.shtml?

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

NHC KEY MESSAGES

ERIN is currently moving toward the WNW. Analysis of the most recent steering layer map clearly now shows the break in the subtropical ridge, which has given the hurricane a more northward component.  Analysis of forecast steering layers maps show this weakness remaining in between the 2 high pressure areas.  Based on this, ERIN should now begin to follow the forecast track a little more closely than 24 hours ago.  Given that there was an EWRC and some structural anomalies that occurred, you may notice that the hurricane took a slight jog northward, prior to coming back to the current motion.  Being ERIN is still a major hurricane, there will be little wobbles back and forth with the center.  This is known as trochoidal motion.  I currently agree with the 18Ztrack guidance based on my analysis, and prefer the TVCA and OFCL guidance, agreeing with the current forecast map
ERIN 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE

RECENT STEERING LAYER MEAN FROM CIMSS

NHC AND HURRTRACKER FORECAST MAPS



CIMSS ADT WIND RADII

The following are projected wave heights for ERIN from the WAVEWATCH Wave model:
WAVEWATCH  SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION


The environment surrounding ERIN is still pretty much favorable, even though the radial shear pattern has elongated and become located to the NW of the center of the storm.  Upper level outflow however, will offset any shear, which is below 15 kts at the moment.  Based on analysis of forecast conditions remaining favorable for the next 36 – 48 hours, I have to agree at the moment with the NHC current intensity forecast.

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 17/2100Z 21.7N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 22.8N 69.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 24.0N 71.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 25.4N 71.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 27.1N 72.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 29.0N 73.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 31.2N 72.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 35.3N 69.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 40.3N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

I will continue to monitor the situation for any significant changes during the next 48 – 72 hours.

Elsewhere, the NHC has designated a MEDIUM (40%) probability for development of the Tropical Wave near the Cape Verde islands during the next 7 days.  The ECMWF EPS probability is indicating a 65 – 70% probability:
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST 72 – 120 HOURS

The wave is moving slowly toward the west, and could gain a little latitude over the next 72 hours.  Conditions are currently marginal for development at the moment.  However, after 72 hours, models indicate an increase in mid level relative humidity values, and a good increase in precipitable water.  Along with this, a more favorable upper level pattern (radial shear pattern), and favorable outflow pattern at 200 mb is forecast to materialize.  Based on this, development, if any will be slow to occur during that time period, and a better probability should occur thereafter.  Given this analysis, I agree with the NHC at the moment in that a depression could form late in the week, or during the weekend coming up.
EATL SATELLITE LOOP

Elsewhere, I am not expecting any development for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you too the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS