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11 AM
"oh..........."
Melissa..... such a beautiful name. So many questions. Slow movement creates a multiple array of options on the menu! It's far down in the SW Carib, yet to it's North and Northeast everyone is watching. Yucatan watching too, they won't look away until it's moving far off to the NE. We have had this rodeo before in late October and odd and often unexpected things happen with late October hurricanes. So, hard to insist that nothing is off the table other than the obvious. It is NOT going to Denver or Seattle.
Old Cone below
Compare and contrast with above current cone!
1. Bulk of Tropical Storm force winds are to the East of the Center. (quote from Discussion)
2. She is not properly aligned and model and models bicker over how aligned she may get. Some intensify her greatly in the long term, some not as much. How strong the steering currents will be is made more muddled an issue to the slow term "crawl" she is doing that is said to be WNW at 2 MPH. Much can happen between here and there, depending on how long she crawls, if she stalls and if she stalls how long does she stall? Adding in any long term stalling near or over land would be dangerous and most likely deadly as there are mountains on those beautiful islands and there are hills and ravines that lead to flash flooding.
3. Discussion is shown below. I do so love reading a discussion written by Forecaster Pappin!
120 Hours out forecast to be 120 MPH
NHC usually begins conservative.
IF this verifies...
Melissa will not go quietly into the night.
Melissa could rage!
Melissa could sting!!
There are places chasers could chase.
Then we have the very long game.
After the Islands....
Jamaica...
Cuba/Florida Straits?
Hispaniola
Florida Straits into the Bahamas?
Bahamas most likely either way.
There are "Mid Term" questions.
Short Term....she's crawling.
Long Term....there are some models.
Out to sea .....
Zipa-a-Dee-Doo-Dah....
...or does she slow down.
Will steering currents be carved into stone?
or
Will she crawl again, maybe stall somewhere???
And IF she slows, intensifies out of the Carib.....
...is there any chance she moves back towards land?
Cold front scenarios this time of year.
Cold front could grab her and run with her...
...inland somewhere before swining out to sea again?
Or does she finally go quietly out into the night?
East Coast old timers watching.
They remember stories on Hazel....
....they remember Sandy.
It's a NHC graphic....
Anywhere in those lines....
... Remember Melissa is rarely reasonable!
Key Messages.
Rainfall Graphics.
Many believe rainfall will be stronger.
Time will tell.
At 2 MPH forward speed... we have time.
I'm on the road part of the day today....
...back to Raleigh.
I'm in the Triad... "up the road"
More Fall Color.
Stunning North Carolina Fall...
I had a best friend who passed away a few years back, she and I talked on weather, obsessing all Hurricane Season long. We chased lines of thunderstorms in Miami that look like Armaggedon was happening; we stayed late at the beach before hurricanes or if a hurricane was cruising by and only going back to the house when it was time to hunker down; being single mothers we did have some childraising responsibilities. She would have been obsessing nonstop about Melissa far away in Miami. Some are obsessing there and others don't pay attention until Aunt Martha calls and screams "GET OUT YOU'RE IN THE CONE!!"
So what can I say about Melissa that has not been said. She is a math problem, a problem for forecasters. She has conditions that are favorable and conditions that are unfavorable. She looks good, then looks crappy and then looks good again. Charlie Brown waiting for Lucy to pull the football away at the last moment!
My mother always taught me never to turn your back on a tropical system if it's to your South and until it's far to your North. Good advice.
Will update later today when back in Raleigh....
Besos BobbiStorm
Sticking with this song....
..as she may go to many of these places
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