The global micro-mobility market is growing at a noteworthy CAGR of 17.7% over the forecast period 2021 to 2030, as per new report study.
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The COVID-19 crisis is causing serious disruptions to the multibillion-dollar micromobility industry. Our analysis indicates that a full recovery is possible, as long as companies prepare for the next normal.
The global micro-mobility market size is expected to be worth around US$ 72.6 billion by 2030 from valued at US$ 28.42 billion in 2020 and is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 17.7% from 2021 to 2030.
Micromobility-service providers are struggling
The global lockdown is profoundly affecting service-provider valuations, workers employed in the sector, and the speed of industry consolidation. For example, the valuation of one company operating a worldwide network of e-bikes and e-scooters recently dropped by a reported 79 percent. Another provider halted operations in six US cities and all of its European markets, laying off 30 percent of its workforce. A third company cut working hours for 60 percent of its staff while supplying a streamlined fleet of its e-scooters to healthcare workers in Germany. The lockdown has also accelerated industry-consolidation moves. For example, a micromobility company recently acquired the e-bicycle and e-scooter business of a major ride-hailing company.
Consumer behavior is shifting rapidly
In response to measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic, such as shelter-at-home orders, local travel preferences are quickly changing. One example is the preference for longer trips. According to a US micromobility company that rents e-scooters, average trip distances have grown 26 percent since the start of the pandemic, with rides in some cities, such as Detroit, increasing by up to 60 percent. At a more detailed level, some cities are also experiencing a shift in consumer use cases. For instance, in San Francisco, the lockdown has caused a pronounced shift toward runs to the pharmacy and trips to restaurants to pick up food.
Midterm: Recovery and the next normal
As the pandemic wanes in some locations, it is natural to wonder when people will start to travel again. Based on an analysis of Apple iPhone data, the number of passenger-kilometers traveled by private and shared micromobility vehicles has decreased by an estimated 60 to 70 percent in Europe and the United States. Interestingly, the same data source already shows a U-shape recovery; extrapolating this trend indicates a recovery to precrisis levels of travel by 2021-22.
To determine if and when micromobility would recover, we conducted a global consumer survey in May 2020. It included more than 7,000 respondents from seven global markets—China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Our goal was to investigate consumer mobility behaviors and expectations before, during, and after the crisis.
According to our consumer survey, the use of micromobility might increase. It showed that the number of respondents willing to use micromobility in the next normal on a regular basis will increase by 9 percent for private micromobility and by 12 percent for shared micromobility compared to precrisis levels. Given these trends, we believe that private- and shared-micromobility solutions will experience a complete recovery in the number of passenger-kilometers traveled, with no significant drop from precrisis levels. We also believe that mobility in general will fully return to precrisis levels.
Some consumer priorities and usage patterns are changing
While the industry itself will persevere, micromobility will undoubtedly look different after the crisis as it enters the next normal. Take consumer behavior, for instance. Prior to the pandemic, our consumer surveys revealed that the main pain point felt by regular users of shared micromobility was the time to destination.
Industry consolidation will continue to accelerate
With drastic decreases in ridership and revenue, shared-micromobility providers find themselves in a more precarious position—and this could continue the accelerated consolidation of companies. In turn, greater acceleration could improve the business case for micromobility providers and increase profitability, given the synergies and scale-efficiency improvements that occur when buying larger volumes of vehicles, processing more payment transactions, and capturing greater back-office scale effects, along with a higher number of insurance fees. Furthermore, cities may reduce their permit fees to support micromobility as an alternative to private-car ownership after the COVID-19 crisis.
Long term: More micromobility travel in the next normal
We believe that micromobility will emerge intact and thrive in the long term. Indeed, our estimates for 2030 predict a boost of 5 to 10 percent in the number of passenger-kilometers traveled compared with our base case. This increase will come from several trends.
First, according to our consumer survey, people are now more willing to regularly use micromobility; in addition, average trip distances could increase, as observed during the COVID-19 crisis, leading to a higher revenue per trip. What's more, higher awareness about personal hygiene and physical distancing might encourage consumers to use micromobility, rather than public transportation, for short trips.
Other trends relate to private-car usage. This form of transport could increase in cities in the next normal as people practice physical distancing to prevent transmission of COVID-19. Overall, private cars are seen as a safer mode of travel, especially when compared with public transit. As noted earlier, cities might enact measures to deincentivize and regulate private-car ownership, such as instituting higher parking fees, taxes, and tolls. They might also invest more in biking infrastructure or even repurpose whole streets to incentivize micromobility use. Furthermore, following the example of Italy, the industry could lower up-front costs for consumers by establishing purchasing premiums for bicycles, e-scooters, and mopeds. They may also enact mileage allowances for those using micromobility for commuting.
Finally, consumers could become more aware of the value of sustainable and noise-reducing transportation modes after experiencing them during lockdowns. Micromobility might thus emerge as a leading option for riders who want to protect the environment.
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Key Players - Yadea Technology Group Co., Ltd., JIANGSU XINRI E-VEHICLE CO., LTD., Xiaomi, SEGWAY INC., SWAGTRON, Boosted USA, Airwheel Holding Limited, YAMAHA MOTOR CO., LTD., Accell Group, Derby Cycle
By Vehicle Type- Electric Kick Scooters, Electric Skateboards, Electric Bicycles
By Battery - Sealed Lead Acid, NiMH, Li-ion,
By Voltage - Below 24V, 36V, 48V, Greater than 48V
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