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New Study Reopens Questions About Our Ability To Meaningfully Assess Global Mean Temperature

5 months ago 117

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“Temperature is an intensive property that is defined only in equilibrium systems and cannot be meaningfully averaged across non-equilibrium systems.” − Cohler, 2025

A 2007 math proofs study that asserted a global mean temperature does not exist in reality (because a temperature average can only be defined in equilibrium systems) has never been disproved.

For example, determining whether a cup of coffee is warming or cooling – and by how much – is entirely dependent on the averaging formula one arbitrarily chooses. In the study 4 averaging methods were chosen to assess change in the average coffee temperature over time. All four were shown to yield different warming vs. cooling results.

Image Source: Essex et al., 2007

A new study reopens this debate by reasserting there are “infinite ways to average temperature.” The averaging method chosen in modern “climate science” is arbitrary, non-physical, and yields fundamentally different results vs. other methods.

“Each method produces different numerical results and different [average temperature] trends over time.”

Image Source: Cohler, 2025

A 2020 study illustrating this unheralded statistical problem fundamental to modern “climate science” pointed out that a large volume of scientists had calculated the global average surface temperature as ranging from 14.0 to 15.1°C from 1877 to 1913, or approximately 14.5°C.

And yet according to calculations from HadCRUT4, NASA GISS, and Berkeley Earth, the global mean temperature was 14.4°C, 14.5°C, and 14.5°C, respectively, from 1991-2018. In other words, it can be shown that there has been “no change for the past 100 years” in the global mean temperature.

Image Source: Kramm et al., 2020
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