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1st Yellow Area of Interest in BOC!
Intricately tied to Cristina...
...in the EPAC
Tropical systems that cross over from the EPAC into the Atlantic Side are nothing new, but the ones that actually get a name are few and often remembered. This is one basic geographic region and Central America lies between it's two parts! Often development in the EPAC happens from areas of convection that move of of Colombia and Venezuela and move Westward into the EPAC and get a name. Sometimes remnant moisture, as we call it, moves into the BOC or into the Caribbean and becomes an early June storm. Could this be Arthur? Stay tuned the 10% is for the 7 day, but it's 0% in the 2 day.
It's easy to see the connectivity in this graphic above from the Mimic. The first place I looked this morning was the Mimic and the signature I saw made me fairly sure we would get a yellow circle somewhere near the BOC. This picture best shows how connected the EPAC is with the Caribbean and BOC. You can see the legs, the arms.... where it forms perhaps is hinted at here or perhaps where it "tries" to form. For now it has low chances of development next week sometime. Anything involving the CAG takes time. It's not a tightly wound, westbound tropical wave chugging along under a strong high from Africa over hot water in late August. It's June, not really too soon but generally weak and often found forming in the Bay of Campeche.
https://zoom.earth/ is an awesome site!
In one image you can see the AOC 10%
and down below the track for Cristina.
And satellite imagery as well!
Mike....shows it all here in one graphic!
Adore Mike, we've been friends for a long time.
On a cruise he's busy tracking!
So beyond what I have posted, there is not really much more to say. Sometimes the BOC gets development from a long tracking tropical wave that rounds the corner and gets into the BOC from the Carib and sometimes it gets development from the EPAC leftovers. And, usually we have an early BOC named storm to literally kick off the Hurricane Season. Could this year be that year? Stay tuned!
Amazingly.......this area is geologically busy also!
Currently looking like the real...
...Devil's Triangle.
And El Nino off to it's West....
..bubble, bubble, toil and trouble.
Stay prepared.
Stay aware.
We have only just begun...
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on X
Gonna leave you for now...
...with this musical melody
a visual reminder of the beauty of the tropics
And the heat, the tropical heat in the air.
Hurricane Season is here....
...stay aware!
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