Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

2019 had a real opportunity during July to further move away from 2012, but failed to do so. Both years had a volume loss that was well below the 2007-2018 average of 6037 km3, which isn't that surprising given how low they both already are. 2017 had even less of a volume loss, and so 2019 is still lowest and the gap with number 2 has grown a little bit. All other years, except for 2014, managed to close the gap somewhat.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS graph shows how this year's volume loss slowed down during the second half of July, when it actually should have increased the gap to be able to compete with the big drop that was caused by the GAC during the first week of August 2012:

Consequently, the anomaly trend line on the PIOMAS volume anomaly graph has shot up again somewhat, back to the one standard deviation zone:

Because sea ice extent actually dropped quite a bit towards the end of the month, and thus volume was spread out over a relatively smaller ice pack, average thickness is no longer lowest on record. It's still among the lowest, however: 2019 is still lowest on the Polar Science Centre average thickness graph:

If we look at a direct comparison for PIOMAS volume distribution between 2019 and 2012, as produced by the inimitable Wipneus, we can see that 2012 will catch up a lot in the coming 10 days in the blue zone in the East Siberian Sea. Blue means that in 2019 the ice there is thinner than it was back in 2012. Of course, the GAC will quickly take care of that difference. But conversely, there's a lot of dark red, in the CAA, the western Beaufort, east of Novaya Zemlya, and between Svalbard and Franz Josef Land, where the ice isn't looking all that great (to put it mildly) and thus 2019 could easily equal 2012:

Due to personal circumstances, I haven't been able to follow this melting season in every single detail (hence not a lot of extra analysis this month). From what I've seen on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum, written by commenters I've known for years and highly respect, my gut feeling says this year won't be able to break the 2012 records.

But for weeks now, I've been thinking of those prophetic words uttered by Peter Wadhams, back in 2007: 'In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly.' I don't think all of it will melt away quite suddenly in coming weeks, but maybe more than one would expect just looking at the data.

This year is a great test that will tell us a lot about the importance of melting momentum.