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Saharan Dust Link.
But the link shows aerosols of all kinds and
obviously that's not SAL over the Great Lakes.
It's complicated, but it's dampened development.
More on this later, several papers out discussing it.
But no one saw it coming........
So why did the forecasts miss the reality of what this 2025 Hurricane Season has become? It's a good question. Models forecasts a busy season, some forecasters went with very busy season. But they missed the SAL that refused to leave, and to be honest some of the SAL is not from Africa but coming down into the Atlantic Basin from places in the North where there are similar areosols that suppress development.
"Not even Nostradamus could have predicted this" said Mike from Mike's Weather Page during this morning's live. Made me laugh. That pretty much says it all. From CSU to NOAA forecasts for 2025 Hurricane Season saw a busy season and some insisted a very busy season. Not beating a dead horse (stupid saying I love horses) but we have to deal with what we have and be happy what we don't have and yet everyone in FL is complaining on the rain. South Florida didn't get their regular Monsoon Season to the degree everyone is used to and now it's showing up every afternoon because of the lingering frontal boundary parked across Florida where it suddenly refused not to go any further down and family and friends are freaking over the daily thunderstorms in September not June. Weather Calendar not working properly this year. Leaves turning here in Carolinas and waiting for the noisy, nighttime crickets and cicadas to die and sorry but no I am not a fan.
Red Blob off Tampa....
...rains go on and on.
I get it... it gets old fast.
But at least you're not in the Cone.
Note the High in the middle of the Atlantic.
The High pretty much owns the High.
Lows across Florida = RAIN
low pressure but NHC says not tropical.
Oh...ok. They make the call.
Small ball of convection spinning along....
...in Atlantic towards Islands or South America.
Not posting the NHC Page as there's nothing there.
Nada. Zero.
Nothing for 7 Days Banner
Mostly remnants of old areas such as 91L
Wave in the middle has a bit of spin of spin.
I didn't say "real spin" just a bit.
Another one rolling W from Africa
And Dust in the Wind...
Keeping this blog short as I went long yesterday, because there's not much to say and between wind shear and SAL lots of suppression of development. Current model based forecasts insist in about 10 days the basin wakes up again. Easy to laugh that off, but we had that happened the last few years. Long quiet periods, then somewhere something spins up.
Have a most wonderful day. If you are enjoying the cooler air from the front, as we are in the Carolinas, enjoy it as the heat is forecast to return. As for rains in South Florida, it'll rain later in the day and you all know the drill so do your errands early and if you have kids in school, they may delay dismissal. My daughter teaches in a large, well run private school in North Dade (Miami near the County Line) and they delayed dismissal for over an hour yesterday while a strong, dangerous thunderstorm lingered over the area. At least it didn't flood as it has in the past.
Enjoy the good times! Have a great day.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on X and Insta (X more weather tho I did speak a bit of football) and Insta whatever.
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