Rachel is forecast to be a Category 1 hurricane off southwestern Mexico by Wednesday afternoon, with a tropical storm warning holding along the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula. The National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Discussion issued at 10:05 UTC Tuesday put Rachel near 18.4N 108.1W on Wednesday afternoon with maximum sustained winds of 75 knots (about 85 mph), strengthening to 80 knots (about 90 mph) by late Wednesday night.

Those are forecast positions, not observations. In its 9 a.m. CST advisory Tuesday, the last complete advisory available when this article was prepared, the hurricane center placed Rachel about 265 miles (425 kilometers) southwest of Lázaro Cárdenas with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph (100 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 987 millibars, and said Rachel was forecast to become a hurricane later that day. Readers should check the latest advisory for Rachel's current status and strength.

A tropical storm watch covers the coast north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes. Rachel's center is forecast to move parallel to the coast but stay offshore, so the main threats for coastal Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco are flooding rain, tropical-storm-force winds inside the warning area and dangerous surf rather than a direct landfall. For U.S. travelers headed to Los Cabos, the open question is how close Rachel passes to the peninsula's southern tip late this week.

Warning Zone, Rain Totals and Timing

Rachel was moving west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) on Tuesday morning, and forecasters expected a turn toward the northwest at a slower forward speed over the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 160 miles (260 kilometers) from the center, which is why a storm that stays at sea can still bring damaging gusts to the shoreline. The hurricane center said tropical storm conditions were expected in the warning area Tuesday and were possible in the watch area by Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Rain is the most widespread hazard. Forecasters expect 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals near 12 inches, across coastal Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, and warned the rain could produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially on steep terrain. The hurricane center said outer bands would bring locally heavy rainfall to coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. Yale Climate Connections noted that Rachel will bring more heavy rain to some of the same areas recently hit hard by Hurricane Polo's downpours.

The NHC forecast discussion issued Tuesday morning called for Rachel to peak near 110 mph Friday, the top of the Category 2 range. Forecasters cautioned that Rachel "could briefly move over slightly cooler waters left in the wake of Hurricane Polo," which may temporarily slow strengthening, and said their intensity forecast sat near the upper end of the model guidance. Track and intensity errors grow with time, and the forecast cone shows where the center could travel, not how far the storm's impacts will reach.

Los Cabos Odds Stay Low but Worth Watching

As of Tuesday morning, no watches or warnings were posted for Baja California Sur. The NHC's wind speed probability table gave Cabo San Lucas a 28% chance of sustained tropical-storm-force winds, 39 mph or stronger, at some point over the following five days. The chance of hurricane-force winds there was about 1%. San José del Cabo stood at 20%, and La Paz at 9%.

More than half of Cabo San Lucas's risk fell between early Thursday and early Friday, when the forecast track brings Rachel closest to the peninsula. Forecast positions place the center roughly 175 to 195 miles south to south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas from Thursday evening into Friday morning, before a gradual turn back toward the west-northwest and west. Isla Socorro, a remote Mexican island southwest of Cabo, faced higher odds at 44%. These probabilities are recalculated with every advisory and shift as the track forecast changes.

The region is still recovering from Polo, which made landfall in Baja California Sur early Tuesday as a Category 2 hurricane. Mexican authorities reported no serious damage, and about 700 people remained in shelters Tuesday, the Associated Press reported. Baja California Sur Gov. Víctor Castro said at the president's morning briefing that the storm "has brought us rain, but no loss of life."

Surf, Rip Currents and Who Faces the Most Risk

Swells from Rachel were expected to affect southwestern Mexico and spread northward through the end of the week, according to the hurricane center, with life-threatening surf and rip currents likely. Hazardous surf can reach beaches well outside the warning zone, including under clear skies.

The greatest physical risk falls on people living on steep, rain-soaked slopes, residents near streams and arroyos that flood quickly, small-boat fishermen and anyone swimming off unguarded beaches. Tourists face a different set of disruptions, including canceled tours, port closures and flight changes if conditions worsen.

Nature World News tracked Polo's intensification in earlier coverage of the storm's Category 5 strength. Rachel is the second storm in about a week to threaten parts of this coastline, leaving little recovery time for communities soaked by Polo.

Steps for Residents and Travelers This Week

Residents should follow instructions from Mexico's National Meteorological Service and from state and municipal civil protection agencies, which issue local alerts and decide on shelters and evacuations. Anyone in a flood-prone or hillside area should know the nearest shelter, keep phones charged, and avoid crossing flooded roads or streams, even in a vehicle.

U.S. travelers can enroll in the State Department's Smart Traveler Enrollment Program for alerts, confirm flight and hotel policies, and keep medications and documents in a carry-on bag. Travel insurance bought after a storm is often named does not cover disruptions from that storm, so check the terms before counting on reimbursement. Obey beach flags and lifeguard instructions, because rip currents can form far from the storm itself.

The hurricane center issues complete advisories on Rachel every six hours, with intermediate advisories in between while coastal watches and warnings remain in effect. The key questions for the coming days are whether Rachel tracks as forecast, whether the watch near Cabo Corrientes is upgraded, and whether any watches are added for southern Baja California Sur.

Rachel is forecast to reach hurricane strength while its core stays offshore, but rain, gusty winds, and rough surf will reach Mexico's southwestern coast regardless. Residents in the warning area should follow local civil protection guidance now, while Los Cabos visitors face low but changing odds that deserve a check with every new advisory through Friday.

What Readers Want to Know

Is Rachel a hurricane?

Forecasters expected Rachel to reach hurricane strength on Tuesday and to be near 85 mph by Wednesday afternoon. Check the latest National Hurricane Center advisory for its current status.

Which parts of Mexico are under warnings?

A tropical storm warning covers the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, and a tropical storm watch extends north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes. No watches or warnings were in effect for Baja California Sur as of Tuesday morning.

Will Rachel hit Cabo San Lucas?

The official forecast keeps Rachel's center offshore. The NHC gave Cabo San Lucas a 28% chance of tropical-storm-force winds over five days and about a 1% chance of hurricane-force winds, with the most likely window from early Thursday into early Friday.

How much rain will Rachel bring?

The NHC forecast 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated totals near 12 inches, across coastal Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, enough to cause life-threatening flooding and mudslides on steep terrain.

Is it safe to swim at Mexican Pacific beaches this week?

Forecasters expect life-threatening surf and rip currents along southwestern Mexico, spreading north through the week. Follow beach flags, lifeguards, and local authorities, and stay out of the water when warnings are posted.

Does Rachel threaten the United States?

The current forecast does not show a direct threat to the U.S. mainland. Americans traveling to Mexico's Pacific coast should monitor NHC updates and local Mexican authorities.