Fire managers opened the week with critical fire weather warnings in two parts of the country and a national picture running well ahead of a normal September. The National Weather Service office in Cheyenne issued a red flag warning at 1:26 a.m. MDT Monday covering fire weather zones across southeastern and central Wyoming, including parts of Converse, Niobrara, Goshen, Platte, Albany, Laramie and Carbon counties, in effect until 8 p.m. MDT. A second Wyoming warning from the NWS Riverton office covered zones in Fremont, Natrona and Sweetwater counties. In California, the NWS Sacramento office carried a red flag warning through 5 p.m. PDT for parts of the Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills. All of those products have since expired.

Those warnings landed on an already heavy season. The National Interagency Fire Center incident situation report issued at 7:30 a.m. MDT Monday listed the country at National Preparedness Level 3, with 57 uncontained large fires and 13,102 personnel assigned. Year to date it counted 54,407 fires and 8,435,367 acres burned, or 149 percent of the ten-year average for acres and 123 percent of the average for number of fires.

For households, the practical meaning of a red flag warning is narrow. It is not a prediction that a fire will start. It means that if one does start inside the warning area, wind and dry air will push it faster than crews can safely get in front of it.

Two Warnings, Two Very Different Wind Profiles

The numbers inside each product matter more than the color of the map. The Cheyenne warning forecast west to northwest winds of 20 to 40 miles per hour with gusts of 45 to 60 miles per hour, and relative humidity as low as 10 to 20 percent. The office stated plainly that any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.

The Sacramento product was a milder setup, calling for north to northwest winds gusting 20 to 35 miles per hour with relative humidity between 10 and 20 percent, with the strongest north winds expected during the morning. Its listed zones included south-central Shasta County and the Redding metro area, the Sierra Nevada of Tehama, Butte and Plumas counties between 1,000 and 3,000 feet, the northern Sacramento Valley in Tehama County, and parts of Glenn, Colusa, Sutter and Yuba counties. NIFC's Predictive Services described a broader pattern, with gusts of 40 to 50 miles per hour across parts of the northern and central Rockies and adjacent High Plains, and high-risk conditions across the western half of Texas driven by southerly gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour.

Ross Fire Crews Close the Line on 90,400 Acres

The Ross Fire in Palo Pinto and Jack counties, about 80 miles west of Fort Worth, is the clearest illustration of what a dry summer has cost North Texas. It started near the community of Ross on Aug. 24 and is now the second-largest wildfire in North Texas records, behind the Possum Kingdom Complex Fire of April 2011, according to the National Weather Service.

NIFC listed the fire at 90,400 acres and 88 percent contained on Monday morning, with 157 structures lost and estimated containment on Sept. 20. Fire behavior was described as moderate, with single tree torching, smoldering, and creeping, and acreage did not change from the previous reporting period. The Texas A&M Forest Service reports that alongside the 157 structures destroyed, 140 were damaged and 453 were saved.

Containment is the figure that has moved. The fire stood at 57 percent in early September and 76 percent on Sept. 10 before crews pushed it to 88 percent. The Texas A&M Forest Service determined on Sept. 4 that the fire was human-caused, beginning along a roadway near U.S. Highway 180 and linked to vehicle or equipment use.

The underlying dryness has not gone away. The NWS Fort Worth drought information page reports drought expanding across nearly its entire forecast area since late June, and notes that as of Sept. 5 Dallas-Fort Worth had gone 52 consecutive days without measurable rainfall, tying the seventh-longest such streak on record, while Waco ran 42 days dry. That streak has since continued. No measurable rain has fallen at DFW International Airport, the region's official climate site, since mid-July, and by Sept. 10 the run had reached 57 days, placing it among the five longest dry streaks on record. The U.S. Drought Monitor map valid Sept. 8 put roughly 73 percent of Texas in drought, and Drought.gov current conditions put 58.59 percent of the Lower 48 in drought.

Evacuation Zones Still Hold Above Upper Lake

In California, the Lucas Fire remains the most active large incident in the northern half of the state. It started on the morning of Sept. 10 near Potter Valley in Mendocino County and spread into Lake County, and it is now managed under unified command by CAL FIRE's Sonoma-Lake-Napa Unit, the Lake County Sheriff's Office and the North Bay incident management team. The cause is under investigation.

The CAL FIRE Lucas Fire incident page listed 4,109 acres and 25 percent containment as of Sunday evening. NIFC put the same acreage and containment figure on Monday, with 2,609 personnel assigned, up more than 800 from the previous day, and an estimated containment date of Sept. 17. Evacuation orders cover seven zones in Lake County and one in Mendocino County, with evacuation warnings in effect for additional zones in both counties.

CAL FIRE reported that activity eased over the weekend, saying that cooler temperatures and lighter winds also provided more favorable conditions. The agency also reported that the red flag warning for Lake County ended at 2 a.m. PDT Sunday, and Lake County zones were not listed in Monday's Sacramento warning.

Readers should note a discrepancy between two official products. NIFC's Monday report still described active fire behavior with wind-driven runs, reflecting an earlier operational period, while CAL FIRE's newer Sunday evening update described diminished activity.

The fire is burning in rugged, remote terrain near the Mendocino National Forest, which has slowed direct attack. Pacific Gas and Electric cut power along Elk Mountain Road, the U.S. Forest Service issued an emergency closure for part of the Upper Lake Ranger District, and the Lake County Fairgrounds in Lakeport is operating an American Red Cross evacuation center at Fritch Hall, with small animals accepted in a separate area and livestock entering through the gate off Estep Drive.

A Very Strong El Niño Is Reshaping the Atlantic

The Climate Prediction Center's ENSO diagnostic discussion issued Sept. 10 keeps an El Niño Advisory in place and gives a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026 and 2027. For the October to December season, forecasters put the odds of an event exceeding the strength of any since 1950 at 75 percent.

The Atlantic connection is well established. NOAA's Aug. 6 update held to a below-normal outlook of 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes and up to 2 major hurricanes, with a 75 percent chance of a below-normal season. The basin has produced five tropical storms, Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard, and no hurricanes, passing the Sept. 10 climatological peak without one. Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami's Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, told ABC News that folks should stay vigilant in case a system does find a very narrow window. Roughly 60 percent of Atlantic activity typically occurs after Sept. 10, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Attributing Monday's fire weather pattern in the West to El Niño is a weaker claim, and no forecast office has made it. What can be stated is narrower: a suppressed Atlantic season means fewer tropical systems drifting inland with rain. Tropical Storm Edouard, which brought heavy rain to southeast Texas around Sept. 1, was the exception, and even then forecasters warned that North Texas would see more wind than rain from it. Nature World News has previously covered forecasts of an unusually strong El Niño and its potential global consequences.

Steps for Households Under a Red Flag Warning

When a warning is in effect, the useful move is to check the county emergency management page and the local NWS zone forecast before outdoor work, and to postpone burning, welding, or mowing in dry grass until it expires.

In Lake and Mendocino counties, evacuation decisions belong to the Lake County Sheriff's Office and CAL FIRE. Residents in warning zones who need extra time, or who have livestock, are advised to leave during a warning rather than waiting for an order. Households near the Ross Fire footprint should photograph damage before cleanup for insurance purposes.

NIFC issues a new situation report each morning, CAL FIRE posts Lucas Fire updates through the day, and the U.S. Drought Monitor releases its next map on Thursday. The read for now is steady rather than alarming. Containment is climbing on the largest fire, the most active California incident weakened over the weekend, and fire risk in the West is arriving in defined warning windows with stated end times. Inside those windows, ignition prevention rather than evacuation is the day's main task.

What Readers Want to Know

What happened on Sept. 14? Three National Weather Service offices issued or carried red flag warnings, two in Wyoming and one in Northern California, while NIFC reported the Ross Fire in Texas at 88 percent containment and the Lucas Fire in California at 25 percent.

Which areas were under a red flag warning? The Cheyenne warning covered fire weather zones spanning Converse, Niobrara, Goshen, Platte, Albany, Laramie and Carbon counties until 8 p.m. MDT. The Riverton warning covered zones in Fremont, Natrona and Sweetwater counties. The Sacramento warning covered parts of the Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills, including the Redding metro area, until 5 p.m. PDT. All have expired.

Was the Lucas Fire under a red flag warning? Not as of Monday. CAL FIRE reported that the red flag warning for Lake County ended at 2 a.m. PDT on Sept. 13, and Lake County zones were not included in Monday's Sacramento warning.

Who faces the greatest risk right now? Residents inside the seven Lake County and one Mendocino County evacuation order zones, households with livestock or mobility needs in warned zones, and anyone doing outdoor equipment work in cured grass when a warning is in effect.

What caused the Ross Fire? The Texas A&M Forest Service determined on Sept. 4 that it was human-caused, starting along a roadway near U.S. Highway 180 and linked to vehicle or equipment use.

How big is the Ross Fire in historical terms? At 90,400 acres, it is the second-largest wildfire in North Texas records, according to the National Weather Service, behind the Possum Kingdom Complex Fire, which burned 126,734 acres in April 2011.

When is the next official update? NIFC publishes a new situation report each morning at 7:30 a.m. MDT, CAL FIRE updates the Lucas Fire page throughout the day, and the U.S. Drought Monitor releases its next map on Thursday.