Skeptical Science New Research for Week #28 2028

Posted on 9 July 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

Fossil fuel emissions dominate Northern Hemisphere CO2 seasonal cycle trends under mitigation scenarios, Jin et al., Nature Communications

Variations in the atmospheric CO2 seasonal cycle across the Northern Hemisphere have historically been dominated by terrestrial ecosystems, making ground-based observations a reliable proxy for terrestrial carbon dynamics. However, whether this dominance will persist in the future remains uncertain. Here we combine atmospheric transport modeling with factorial simulations to assess and attribute future changes in the CO2 seasonal cycle through 2100. We show that the dominant drivers of these changes shift fundamentally across scenarios. Under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), strengthening land sinks dominate and amplify CO2 seasonal variability, preserving ground-based observations as a reliable terrestrial proxy. In contrast, under the low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), CO2 seasonal amplitude declines widely, driven primarily by reduced fossil fuel emissions and their dampened seasonality. Consequently, established ground-based CO2 observations may no longer reliably track terrestrial carbon dynamics under mitigation pathways, underscoring the need for new approaches for monitoring and climate policy verification.

Dynamic evaporative and radiative cooling for efficient year-round energy savings, Zhou et al., Science Advances

Electricity-free radiative cooling (RC) techniques are gaining ever-increasing attention to decrease energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, the cooling power of RC in summer is severely limited by atmospheric window constraints and its negative effect in winter offsets annual energy savings in four-season regions. This study introduces a dynamic evaporative and radiative cooling (DERC) device to maximize the cooling power in hot summer and achieve year-round dynamic thermal management. Adaptive to changes in environmental temperature, the DERC device demonstrates dynamic regulation of water evaporation, along with notable modulation of solar and thermal radiation (ΔAsol = 87%; ΔεBroadband = 63%). Theoretical and real-time experiments demonstrate that the DERC device is more energy-efficient than cutting-edge dynamic radiative cooling (DRC) techniques. The energy-saving simulations indicate that the DERC device yields over 40% primary energy savings and CO2 emission reduction compared to the DRC device. This DERC device represents a conceptual advancement, paving the way for global energy savings and emission reductions.

Heating up the headlines: How tabloid framing reshaped Germany's Buildings Energy Act, Loschke et al., Energy Research & Social Science

Media has become a decisive force in shaping climate and energy policy, influencing not only which issues gain attention but also how they are framed and contested. This paper examines how BILD, Germany's largest tabloid, transformed the 2023 reform of the Buildings Energy Act (GEG) into one of the most polarizing political controversies in recent German history. Analyzing a corpus of 333 BILD articles from January 2023 to March 2024, we identify three dominant rhetorical strategies – personalisation, economic alarmism, and ideological framing – epitomised by the term “Heizungshammer”, which appeared over 250 times in BILD alone and spread to more than 1100 articles across the broader press. These narratives produced concrete policy outcomes: the progressive dilution and eventual abandonment of the 65% renewable energy obligation, the cancellation of planned building efficiency standards, and a reversal of Germany's position in EU negotiations on the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive. The case demonstrates that tabloid framing can migrate directly into legislative outcomes, with measurable consequences for climate governance ambition, highlighting the fragility of climate legislation in an age of digital populism.

Shades of Swedish climate scepticism: an exploration of explanatory factors on doubts about climate change, Mendy & Lindvall, Environmental Sociology 

This study examines the drivers of climate scepticism in Sweden, distinguishing between epistemic scepticism – doubts about the scientific evidence of climate change – and response scepticism, concerning doubts about the need or effectiveness of climate mitigation. Using a large-scale survey (n = 5280), we analyse how variants of political ideology – regarding economic and material aspects, and cultural values captured on the GAL-TAN scale – and trust shape these forms of scepticism. While relatively few respondents expressed epistemic scepticism, response scepticism was more prevalent. Low trust in scientists is the strongest determinant of epistemic scepticism, alongside TAN-oriented ideology. TAN orientation associates more strongly with response scepticism than epistemic scepticism, suggesting that individuals who accept climate science may still oppose mitigation policies, possibly due to a proclivity of social dominance orientation or political cues. A novel result is that attributional uncertainty, beliefs that climate is changing equally due to human and natural causes, is found to strongly associate with response scepticism, suggesting that more effective climate communication could alleviate such scepticism. The paper underscores the need to disentangle social mechanisms behind different sceptical climate beliefs and to refine the concept of response scepticism, as it may reflect distinct psychological and political dynamics.

From this week's government/NGO section:

The Power Behind AI. Wave of Dirty Gas Power Plants Planned for Data Centers, Bird et al., The Environmental Integrity Project:

At least 74 natural gas-fired power plants are planned across the U.S. to provide energy for the rapidly growing data center industry. These proposed gas plants, which would be dedicated to serving data centers, are expected to generate 143 gigawatts of electricity – enough to power the state of California nearly three times over. The plants would also release nearly 662 million tons per year of greenhouse gas pollution, which would have the climate-warming effect of 140 million cars and trucks driving for a year or the emissions from the entire nation of Australia. Beyond greenhouse gases, this wave of power plants for data centers could also release 159,142 tons of health-harming air pollutants, including 44,281 tons of nitrogen oxides that contribute to smog and lung damage and 32,684 tons of fine particulate matter, which can trigger heart and asthma attacks. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. This pollution is a small fraction of the likely environmental effect of the booming artificial intelligence (AI) industry and affiliated data centers. These 74 planned gas plants, including 71 new power plants and three plant expansions, would be connected directly to data centers — so-called “behind-the-meter” power plants. These plants are designed to provide their electricity primarily to data centers and not to compete with local households and businesses on regional power grids. More power plants are being planned across the U.S. that will indirectly serve the growing data center industry along with other consumers on the grid, which will likely drive up electricity prices for nearby residents.

Code, carbon, kilowatts: AI’s hidden toll and the race to green the grid, Patrick Hoffmann and Katharina Utermöhl, Allianz Research

Data-center investment reached USD580bn in 2025, putting AI on track to become one of the world's fastest-growing sources of electricity demand. Installed capacity is expected to double by 2030, with AI workloads already accounting for 15–20% of data-center electricity use and potentially approaching 40% by the end of the decade. Yet the sector's environmental footprint remains underestimated as most analyses focus only on operational electricity use. The authors take a broader systems view across 26 countries (+93% of global capacity), adding lifecycle emissions, water use and AI's growing resource demand. Identical workloads can generate up to 24 ti mes more emissions depending on the emission intensity of the grid, making location as decisive as demand growth. Fossil-dependent grids in Indonesia, India and Malaysia exceed 600 gCO₂/kWh, compared with under 30 gCO₂/kWh in Norway and Sweden. The US and China, which host the largest data-center clusters, sit in between at 384 gCO₂/kWh and 526 gCO₂/kWh, respectively, giving Europe's cleaner power mix a structural advantage for low-carbon AI growth. These disparities are amplified by transmission and distribution losses of 10–15% in some markets, while less reliable grids raise electricity needs and dependence on backup generation.

125 articles in 56 journals by 1121 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A Link between African Surface Temperature and the Eastward Shift of Precipitation over the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent Region, Hagos et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0192.1

Antarctic Sea-Ice Loss Enhances East Asian Summer Precipitation Through Tropical Ocean Warming, Zhu et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008147

Changing thunderstorms environments in Saudi Arabia: Frequency, variability and drivers of change, Rafei et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109186

Glacier thinning causes warmer and drier regional climate at the Jostedalsbreen ice cap in western Norway, Haualand et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-7-1033-2026

Increases in Compound Drought and Hot Event in the Southwestern Tibetan Plateau and Its Link to Land-Atmosphere Interactions, Kong et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70502

Increases in Southeast Pacific Low-Cloudiness During ENSO Warm Phases, Manapat et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122913

Moderate volcanic eruptions and extreme wildfires humidify the stratosphere, Peng et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-026-10731-0

Reduced Wind Power on Oceanic Near-Inertial Internal Waves in a Warming Climate, Huang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121340

The past evolution of marine heatwaves and their drivers in the southern North Sea, Schulzki et al., Ocean science Open Access 10.5194/os-22-2027-2026

Ultra flash cold events under global warming, He et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75094-6

Weak 21st-Century AMOC Response to Greenland Meltwater in a Strongly Eddying Ocean Model, Mehling & Dijkstra, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122545

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Pacific Decadal Oscillation Modulates the Impacts of Bering Sea Ice Loss on North American Temperature, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl109447 11 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Factors Behind Change in Extremes: Change in Precipitation Is Dominated by Its Variability Whereas Change in Temperature by Its Mean, Dash & Maity, Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045639

Increasing probability of humid-heat extremes outpaces that of dry-heat extremes in global land monsoon regions under anthropogenic warming, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.024

Increasing spatially co-occurring droughts or pluvials in global major rivers during 1950-2014, Luo et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.021

Streamflow composition in U.S. rivers is shifting toward recent precipitation, Chen & Husic, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03788-2

Sustained decrease in snowfall over the Tibetan Plateau under a changing climate, Lin et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105602

The Spatiotemporal Evolution of Arctic Climate Types and Its Attribution, Liu et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0207.1

Toward more frequent winter rain-on-snow events in the Pyrenees, Bonsoms, Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109184

Warming-driven runoff increase and shifted seasonality in the glacierized Hotan Basin in Central Asia, Xu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105579

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Temperatures and hypolimnetic oxygen in German lakes: Observations, future trends and adaptation potential, AMBIO, 10.1007/s13280-024-02046-z 15 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Assessing the Ability of Tree-Ring-Derived Aridity Records to Detect Compound Drought and Heatwave Events, Taylor et al., Journal of Climate Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0472.1

ClimateBenchPress (v1.0): a benchmark for lossy compression of climate data, Reichelt et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-5933-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The Hawai‘i Climate Data Portal (HCDP), Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/bams-d-23-0188.1 20 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Atmospheric blocking representation in storm-resolving climate models under historical and future forcing, Dolores-Tesillos et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-7-1089-2026

Distinct Changes in Tropical Cyclone Seasons Between the Western North Pacific and North Atlantic Under High-Level Carbon Dioxide Climate Simulations, Wu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd046669

Evaluation and Future Changes of Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the Conterminous United States in High-Resolution Global and Regional Simulations, Fu & Prein, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122237

Non-Uniform Reduction of the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones in Response to the AMOC Weakening Under External Freshwater Forcing, Joshi & Zhang, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123615

Projected Mid- and Late-Century Changes in Severe Convective Storms Across the United States From Dynamically Downscaled Climate Simulations, Roufa et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70475

Projection the Risk of Winter Extreme Cold Spells in China Based on Statistical Modelling Under Global Warming of 1.5°C and 2.0°C, Zhu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70503

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Decreased ENSO post-2100 in response to formation of a permanent El Niño-like state under greenhouse warming, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-50156-9 36 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Barriers to incorporating dichotomy-based impervious surface datasets into high-resolution urban climate studies, Yu et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103008

Decade-Long Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations for Arabian Peninsula Winter Precipitation: Climatology and Extremes, Attada et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0123.1

Intrinsic Haline Variability as a Source of Uncertainty in Ocean Simulations Without Salinity Restoring, Berthet et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2026jc024169

Performance of CMIP6 models in simulating the impact of north tropical Atlantic SST variability on the ITCZ, Lu et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1867838

Removing Implausible Precipitation Extremes from CMIP6 Climate Projections Using a GEV-Based Framework, maddahi et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-25-0099.1

Southern Ocean Barrier Layer Assessment in CMIP6 Models with Argo: Historical Bias and Possible Reasons, Jiang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0417.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Assessing CMIP6 uncertainties at global warming levels, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-024-07323-x 23 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

A global meta-analysis of snowpack changes on soil carbon and nitrogen cycling and greenhouse gas fluxes, Wang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105598

Artificial Flooding Leads to Thicker and Brighter Arctic Sea Ice, Blanchard-Wrigglesworth et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007894

Increasing sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea during recent decades modulated by high-frequency Pacific oscillations, Ejaz et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105604

Lengthening ablation seasons are associated with declining minimum albedo of global glaciers, Xiao et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.025

Localized positive snow water equivalent anomalies in the Hindu Kush Himalaya under 1.5–5.0 °C warming levels, Zuo et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.019

Quantification of Heat and Salt Budgets in the Western Ross Ice Shelf Cavity and Polynya System, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121363

Regional glacier mass changes and meltwater evolution in the Tianshan Mountains since 2000, Li et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105587

Sea Ice Latent Heat Becomes More Active in the Arctic Sea Ice Energy Budget, Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122371

Sustained decrease in snowfall over the Tibetan Plateau under a changing climate, Lin et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105602

Temporal and spatial variations in freezing-thawing indices and their impact on permafrost in the Himalayan region, China, from 1960 to 2020, WANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.020

Uncertainty of the satellite-retrieved sea-ice area record and its trend, Wernecke et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-3783-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Altimetry-based ice-marginal lake water level changes in Greenland, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01522-4 13 cites.

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Sea level & climate change

Evaluating and mitigating ecosystem impacts under future extreme sea-level events: The case of Hong Kong, Cao et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103027

Relative contributions of waves and altimetric sea levels to global coastal sea level changes over 1993–2025, Peng et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.023

Sub-basin sea level budget analysis in the North Indian Ocean (2003–2024), Pillai et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-60856-5

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Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

North Pacific meltwater weakens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and preconditions Heinrich Stadial 1, Sun et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75199-y

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Basin-scale grassland greenness and production capacity under extreme temperature and hydrothermal influences in Aral Sea basin during 21st century, Kayiranga et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105617

Critical slowing down of semiarid vegetation resilience is amplified by intensifying heatwaves, Fu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-75130-5

Earlier spring and later autumn: Climate warming reshapes pollen seasons in Beijing, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.07.003

Higher temperatures and low precipitation strongly decrease conifer recruitment in the Rocky Mountains even in heat-adapted species and populations, Bither & Martin, Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.70394

Individual Trees Respond to 40 Years of Climate Change Through Leaf Functional Trait Acclimation, Fortier et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70978

Intraspecific trait variation responds consistently to global change drivers and mediates herbivory across unrelated plant species, Zurbuchen & Halliday, Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.70389

Multidecadal shifts in hooded seal dive behaviour in a changing ocean, Mendez-Bye et al., Arctic Science Open Access 10.1139/as-2025-0108

Ocean acidification alters phytoplankton diversity and community structure in the coastal water of the East China Sea, Rao et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-4515-2026

Positive feedback of forest cover in maintaining hydrological equilibrium under recent climate change projections and land use change scenarios, Kumar et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106880

Regeneration failure, fire, topography, and climate interact to drive temperate wet forest landscapes into fire traps, Perry, University of Auckland Data Repository Open Access 10.17608/k6.auckland.32320029

Stomatal Decoupling From Photosynthesis Under High Temperatures Is Consistent With Stomatal Optimisation, Jones et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70972

Unstable climate drove divergent changes in tree richness and evenness on the Tibetan Plateau, Li et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105615

When Tides Run Dry: Exploring an Overlooked Coastal Disturbance and Its Climate Connections, Gauff et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70976

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49911-9 31 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A meta-analysis of carbon losses and gains from tropical moist forest degradation and regeneration, Heinrich et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adz1923

A multi-model approach to constrain the atmospheric hydrogen budget, Krishnan et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-9509-2026

Declines in organic matter persistence with increased soil carbon, Zhao et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-75185-4

Fossil fuel emissions dominate Northern Hemisphere CO2 seasonal cycle trends under mitigation scenarios, Jin et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-75003-x

In-depth characterisation of organic matter thermal lability and composition from Arctic Permafrost thaw slumps, Bolandini et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-4447-2026

Iron as a driver of organic carbon fate in permafrost regions, Opfergelt et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02015-z

Limited energy for microorganisms constrains carbon accrual in soil, Wang et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02035-9

Nonlinear microbial thresholds drive non-additive soil greenhouse gas responses to compound climate extremes, Lv et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111319

Quantifying the impact of anthropocene river regulation on global organic carbon burial: Mechanisms of accelerated sequestration in karst reservoirs, Wang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105597

Responses of Soil Carbon Release to Freeze–Thaw Cycles Mediated by Carbon Availability at Regional and Global Scales, Wang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70991

Soil Moisture Controls on Permafrost Carbon Cycle Under Greenhouse Warming and Zero Emission Pathways, Mun et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008209

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Four decades of data indicate that planted mangroves stored up to 750f the carbon stocks found in intact mature stands, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.adk5430 60 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

3D geological modelling for CO2 storage assessment in the Abu Roash-A reservoir, Beni Suef field, Western Desert, Egypt, Arafat et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2026.1877557

A review of carbon dioxide removal through concrete carbonation: key parameters and life cycle assessment, Knight et al., Environmental Research Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ae73b3

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Decarbonization

Decarbonization from the ground up: what Local Industrial Decarbonization Plans reveal about place-based approaches to decarbonizing industry in the UK, Rattle & Taylor, Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.32885157.v1

Dynamic evaporative and radiative cooling for efficient year-round energy savings, Zhou et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aed6069

Future scenarios for the benefit of battery storage in the German day-ahead electricity market, Gottfried & Müller, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115461

Projecting and Constraining Solar Energy Resources Along the Silk Road Economic Belt under Climate Change, LIU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.028

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Towards carbon-neutral and clean propulsion in heavy-duty transportation with hydroformylated Fischer–Tropsch fuels, Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-024-01581-z 42 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Artificial Flooding Leads to Thicker and Brighter Arctic Sea Ice, Blanchard-Wrigglesworth et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007894

Marine cloud brightening of cumulus clouds: from the sprayer to the cloud, Kainz et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-9443-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Decomposing the effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols based on CMIP6 Earth system models, Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 10.5194/acp-24-7837-2024 18 cites.

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Aerosols

Global Ocean data set of marine aerosol properties, Quinn et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-4317-2026

Impacts of Aerosol Scavenging and Processing on the Transition of a Stratocumulus Cloud System to Open Cells: A Comparison of Lagrangian and Bin Microphysics Schemes in LES, Chandrakar & Morrison, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 10.1175/jas-d-25-0226.1

Record-Breaking Easterly Dust Transport From North Africa to the Arctic: An Observational Study, Chen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl123383

Temperature and radiative responses to anthropogenic aerosols over the Mediterranean Basin based on CMIP6 Earth system models, Kalisoras et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-26-9413-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Co-Benefits of Mitigating Aerosol Pollution to Future Solar and Wind Energy in China Toward Carbon Neutrality, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl109296 18 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

A hope-based framework for implementing climate risk education policy in South African secondary schools, Matimolane & Mathivha, Discover Education Open Access 10.1007/s44217-026-01848-5

Heating up the headlines: How tabloid framing reshaped Germany's Buildings Energy Act, Loschke et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104832

Institutional quality shapes who citizens hold responsible for climate change mitigation, Klebl et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103190

Moral perspective-taking can reduce polarization around climate policy in the United States, Hurst & Hurst, PNAS Nexus Open Access 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag225

People systematically under- and overestimate public engagement in climate action, Tiede et al., Open MIND pmh:10.17605/osf.io/kcq37

Shades of Swedish climate scepticism: an exploration of explanatory factors on doubts about climate change, Mendy & Lindvall, Environmental Sociology Open Access pdf 10.1080/23251042.2026.2697748

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Politicians and climate change: A systematic review of the literature, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.908 25 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A multivariate framework for assessing compound agroclimatic extremes across Europe, Gohari et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03576-y

Agricultural intensification and greenhouse gas emissions in Saudi Arabia: evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL models, Hassan et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1830288

Agrivoltaics: a promising renewable energy model still distant from a collaborative agroecology, Scotti & Osti, Environmental Sociology Open Access pdf 10.1080/23251042.2026.2697744

Breeding drought-tolerant crops for sustainable agriculture, Raza et al., Agriculture & Food Security Open Access pdf 10.1186/s40066-025-00587-4

Fishing and warming reshape size spectra of commercial species in the Mediterranean Sea, Gjoni et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-60738-w

Prioritizing Inclusive Practices for Rural Women Smallholder Farmers Participation in Climate Change Adaptation and Ecological Education in Sub-Saharan Africa, Lokonon et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.70053

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Impacts of the global food system on terrestrial biodiversity from land use and climate change, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49999-z 88 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Changes in the spatial connection and synchronization of extreme rainfall events in recent decades over the Ganga and Yamuna River Basins of India, Pandey et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109170

Impact, drivers and pathways of two Arctic atmospheric rivers in April 2020, Podgurski et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-7-1051-2026

Increasing spatially co-occurring droughts or pluvials in global major rivers during 1950-2014, Luo et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.06.021

Increasing urban flash flood risk attributable to both climate and development, Cotterill et al., Explore Bristol Research Open Access pmh:oai:research-information.bris.ac.uk:openaire_cris_publications/0260fbc2-2c41-4b32-a6f9-caa8dedffe1f

Streamflow composition in U.S. rivers is shifting toward recent precipitation, Chen & Husic, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03788-2

Warming-driven runoff increase and shifted seasonality in the glacierized Hotan Basin in Central Asia, Xu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105579

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Response of streamflow and sediment variability to cascade dam development and climate change in the Sai Gon Dong Nai River basin, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-024-07319-7 101 cites.

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Climate change economics

An assessment of climate vulnerabilities in selected emerging economies with validation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, Kumari et al., Environment Systems & Decisions 10.1007/s10669-026-10114-w

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Driving towards a just transition? The case of the European car industry, Energy Research & Social Science, 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103649 17 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Ecological synergy thresholds: Mechanisms and governance implications for enhancing city-level ecosystem carbon sink in China, Li et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105595

Repoliticising users in energy transitions: A critique of dominant ideas and their effect in policy and practice, Ahlborg et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104814

Risk in translation: Climate risk, social vulnerability, and clean energy support across the United States, Tsykalova et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104827

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Supply-side climate policy: A new frontier in climate governance, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.909 22 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A multi-level framework for climate adaptation of critical infrastructure: flood risk in railway networks, Gonzalez et al., Environmental Research Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ae7fb5

Beyond climatic risk: envisioning, legitimizing and materializing imaginaries of climate change adaptation in Barbados, Córdova, Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.32927386

Effect of financial inclusion and women empowerment on climate resilience: Evidence from sub-Saharan African households, Ali et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100848

Engineering against the climate crisis: assessing the awareness and engagement of South African engineering professionals in climate mitigation and adaptation, Jokazi & Lefalatsa, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1829348

Household perceptions and behaviour shape climate insurance adoption under climate risk, Kamis et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100844

Occupational productivity under extreme heat: Climate impacts and adaptive strategies, Li et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100834

Planning climate destination cities: migrant narratives from Mongla, Bangladesh, Hasan et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2692563

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Living in Mediterranean cities in the context of climate change: A review, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.8546 36 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Assessment of urban quality of life under climate change – A framework for Europe, Seku?a et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102988

High-Resolution Modeling of Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Reveals Substantial Heat Risks Across Crops and Work Shifts Among Agricultural Workers in Southern California, Parajuli et al., GeoHealth Open Access 10.1029/2025gh001604

Projecting community-specific burden of emergency department visits and hospitalizations associated with heat exposure in Victoria, Australia, Xing et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103023

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Other

Climate unemployment, Kono, Political Studies 10.1177/0032321719836066

Climatic Drivers of the Area Burned by Winter Wildfires in Northern Italy, Baronetti et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70496

Influence of historical urban expansion on the regional climate: A case study in the Paris region with CNRM-AROME, Corneille et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103013

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Ocean iron cycle feedbacks decouple atmospheric CO2 from meridional overturning circulation changes, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-49274-1 4 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Responsible carbon accounting, [authors did not process], Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02707-9

Rethinking urban forests as essential infrastructure for resilience, equity, and biodiversity in the current climate emergency, Esperón-Rodríguez et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000953

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Higher-resolution projections needed for small island climates, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-024-02028-9 10 cites.

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Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Uneconomic Coal Operations in PJM: Market Distortions, Cost Impacts, and Policy Considerations, Roumpani et al., The Citizens Utility Board of Ohio

Uneconomic coal operations are not isolated incidents, but occur by a combination of permissive market rules, utility incentives, regulatory decisions, and policy interventions. In combination, these weaken price signals and allow aging, high-cost coal units to remain online even when they are no longer competitive. The authors examine mechanisms that allow or drive uneconomic coal operations including self-scheduling, in which generators operate regardless of market prices, often recovering losses through state-approved power cost recovery mechanisms.; uplift payments, which compensate generators under specified conditions for operating or committing when market revenues are insufficient; Reliability Must-Run (RMR) agreements, which keep uneconomic units online after retirement announcements due to localized reliability concerns; and policy interventions, including recent federal actions, that override or blunt market signals.

The Power Behind AI, Bird et al., The Environmental Integrity Project

At least 74 natural gas-fired power plants, which could release as much climate-warming pollution as the nation of Australia each year, are planned across the U.S. to provide energy for the rapidly-growing data center industry. These proposed gas plants, which would be dedicated to serving data centers, are expected to generate 143 gigawatts of electricity – enough to power the state of California nearly three times over – along with 662 million tons per year of greenhouse gas pollution.

Greenpeace Report on Wildfires in Portugal, Viegas et al., Greenpeace

The wildfire risk in Portugal has been changing over the past decades due to the positive or negative effects of various factors, some related to natural or physical conditions and others to socioeconomic, political, and organizational activities. Using statistical data on national fire occurrence and extent, which have been available since 1943, and on climatic factors, vegetation cover and properties, population evolution, and administrative changes in the wildfire risk management system, the authors provide an overview of wildfires in Portugal and their evolution over the past decades. The long-term data are used to provide an overall perspective on some of the major factors present over these eight decades.

Carbon Markets, Unseen Workers: Labor Rights and Governance Gaps in Africa, Otieno et al., Solidarity Center

The authors address a critical gap by analyzing carbon markets through a labor and political economy lens. Grounded in experiences from Kenya, Ghana, South Africa, and Nigeria, the authors examine how both compliance and voluntary carbon market mechanisms shape employment, labor conditions, and worker participation. The authors illuminate the role of workers across carbon value chains, assess alignment with the International Labor Organization's core conventions and decent work principles, identify governance and accountability gaps, and explore pathways for worker and trade union engagement. The authors provide a framework for workers and their organizations to develop their own engagement and advocacy strategies tailored to their specific priorities.

Hawai'i’s Electricity Future: Three Findings on Solar Reform, Enhanced Geothermal, and the JERA LNG Proposal, Ethan Hartley and Michael Roberts, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization

The authors ask what Hawaiian Electric and Hawai‘i should build to keep O‘ahu’s lights on through 2050 while transitioning to 100 percent clean power, and what it will cost. The analysis uses a planning model — the kind of computer model utility companies and grid regulators run when they have to decide which power plants to build over the next two decades — and solves it more than three hundred times under different assumptions about oil prices, solar and battery costs, land-use rules, the Public Utility Commission-approved Waiau Repower, and the JERA liquefied natural gas proposal. Three findings hold across all the variations tested; cheaper solar and battery deployment is by far the biggest economic lever Hawai‘i has; under defensible current cost assumptions, O‘ahu does not need to build any new fuel-burning power plant beyond what is already committed; and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) are the largest non-solar economic lever — if the technology delivers on the optimistic cost trajectory.

California Salmon Strategy for a Hotter, Drier Future: Restoring Aquatic Ecosystems in the Age of Climate Change, Second Progress Report, State of California

In January 2024, California adopted the California Salmon Strategy for a Hotter, Drier Future (Salmon Strategy), identifying six priorities and 71 actions to restore struggling salmon populations. Since the release of the Salmon Strategy, the state has fully completed 49% of the actions and partially met or advanced progress on 51% of the actions. This progress report describes progress for the 71 actions across two stages, those that are in-progress and those that have been completed. For example, salmon fishing is back, salmon are returning to the Klamath Basin, salmon have been reintroduced to cold-water habitat on the Yuba River, and river flows for salmon have been protected in the Scott and Shasta rivers.

The Impact of New York's 2026 Climate Law Retreat, Jonathan Binder and Vincent Nolette, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia University

On May 26, 2026, New York State enacted significant revisions to its 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA). The 2026 Amendments, which include changes to the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission accounting methods, the statewide GHG emission limits, and the requirement to adopt implementing regulations, collectively weaken the Act's ambition. New York’s retreat from state climate action after championing it for years reflects a broader national trend of de-prioritizing mitigation efforts. The 2026 Amendments will have vast and important consequences for the implementation of the CLCPA. Numerous actions will need to be updated through rulemaking, guidance, or other administrative processes. This will require a significant and resource-intensive undertaking by the State, and especially by the Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC). Amending the statute was largely done behind closed doors as part of the state budget process. By contrast, most of these administrative actions to implement the amended CLCPA will require a public-facing process. In the background, the risk and actual commencement of litigation will continue to shape the Act’s outcomes. Despite these amendments, DEC, with support of various stakeholders, retains significant discretion to maximize the CLCPA's benefits through strong implementation.

Stafford Act's Requirement to Consider Climate Change in State Hazard Mitigation Plans, Olivia Guarna, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia University

Congress passed the Stafford Act in 1988 to provide a means for sustained and coordinated federal aid in response to disasters. The Stafford Act includes a comprehensive non-emergency hazard mitigation program. Hazard mitigation assistance empowers states, tribes, and local governments to engage in planning and mitigation activities that improve disaster outcomes and minimize losses in their jurisdictions. A key component of the Stafford Act’s hazard mitigation assistance programs, which are implemented by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is the development of state hazard mitigation plans. The Stafford Act requires state hazard mitigation plans to “identify the natural hazards, risks, and vulnerabilities of areas in the State.” The author argues that, under the Stafford Act, state plans must consider the effects of climate change on natural hazard risks and vulnerabilities.

Code, carbon, kilowatts: AI’s hidden toll and the race to green the grid, Patrick Hoffmann and Katharina Utermöhl, Allianz Research

Data-center investment reached USD580bn in 2025, putting AI on track to become one of the world's fastest-growing sources of electricity demand. Installed capacity is expected to double by 2030, with AI workloads already accounting for 15–20% of data-center electricity use and potentially approaching 40% by the end of the decade. Yet the sector's environmental footprint remains underestimated as most analyses focus only on operational electricity use. The authors take a broader systems view across 26 countries (+93% of global capacity), adding lifecycle emissions, water use and AI's growing resource demand. Identical workloads can generate up to 24 times more emissions depending on the emission intensity of the grid, making location as decisive as demand growth. Fossil-dependent grids in Indonesia, India and Malaysia exceed 600 gCO2/kWh, compared with under 30 gCO2/kWh in Norway and Sweden. The US and China, which host the largest data-center clusters, sit in between at 384 gCO2/kWh and 526 gCO2/kWh, respectively, giving Europe's cleaner power mix a structural advantage for low-carbon AI growth. These disparities are amplified by transmission and distribution losses of 10–15% in some markets, while less reliable grids raise electricity needs and dependence on backup generation.

A Study of Architectural Measures to Reduce Overheating. Literature Review and Analysis, Historic England

The authors identified different historic architectural measures used in England and in British colonial architecture abroad. They investigated how passive architectural measures, such as awnings or shutters, have been used in the past to reduce solar gain and seasonal overheating. The different measures are supporting Historic England in identifying appropriate adaptation options to a changing climate. As temperatures increase, there is a growing risk of overheating occurring in buildings. This could lead to thermal discomfort, health implications for building occupants due to thermal stress, and increased energy usage due to a rising demand for cooling to counter the overheating. In addition to identifying what measures were used historically, the authors also sought to identify the different risks, regulations and limitations that might need to be considered when contemplating their integration into an existing historic building.

Glass Half Full: Building a Decarbonized U.S. Power Sector, Lily Bermel, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) was built, sold, and attacked as the largest climate investment in U.S. history. It enacted an extensive suite of clean energy tax credits and included hundreds of billions of dollars in grant and loan programs, reestablishing the United States as a climate leader. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 (OBBBA) rescinded the vast majority of the IRA’s grant and loan programs and restructured the clean energy tax credit framework by phasing out the wind and solar tax credits and adding restrictions to the others. Many clean energy advocates saw these changes as the death of the IRA and warned of dire consequences for the American energy transition. Indeed, removing and restricting energy tax credits will contribute to higher energy prices, project cancellations, job losses, and less energy added to the grid at a time when power demand is surging. Policymakers designing the next wave of decarbonization policy need to start with a clear-eyed understanding of how the current environment shapes the energy transition. The author provides one for the power sector, the backbone of that transition. The author assesses how much the current policy environment preserves the benefits of the prior policy environment, situates those modeled results within the real-world forces shaping delivery, and draws out what the findings imply for future policy priorities and public spending.

The Power Behind AI. Wave of Dirty Gas Power Plants Planned for Data Centers, Bird et al., The Environmental Integrity Project:

At least 74 natural gas-fired power plants are planned across the U.S. to provide energy for the rapidly growing data center industry. These proposed gas plants, which would be dedicated to serving data centers, are expected to generate 143 gigawatts of electricity – enough to power the state of California nearly three times over. The plants would also release nearly 662 million tons per year of greenhouse gas pollution, which would have the climate-warming effect of 140 million cars and trucks driving for a year or the emissions from the entire nation of Australia. Beyond greenhouse gases, this wave of power plants for data centers could also release 159,142 tons of health-harming air pollutants, including 44,281 tons of nitrogen oxides that contribute to smog and lung damage and 32,684 tons of fine particulate matter, which can trigger heart and asthma attacks. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. This pollution is a small fraction of the likely environmental effect of the booming artificial intelligence (AI) industry and affiliated data centers. These 74 planned gas plants, including 71 new power plants and three plant expansions, would be connected directly to data centers — so-called “behind-the-meter” power plants. These plants are designed to provide their electricity primarily to data centers and not to compete with local households and businesses on regional power grids. More power plants are being planned across the U.S. that will indirectly serve the growing data center industry along with other consumers on the grid, which will likely drive up electricity prices for nearby residents.

City of Boulder, Climate Action Plan, City of Boulder

This Climate Action Plan outlines how Boulder's aim to reduce emissions, strengthen infrastructure resilience and invest in communities most affected by climate change. It connects long-term goals with practical strategies already in motion across the city. Already occurring are extreme heat, longer droughts, greater fire risk and rising energy burdens, especially for community members with the fewest resources. These effects are not future threats. They are here now. The city is responding with clear targets, coordinated action and a focus on long-term public benefit.

Mental Images of Global Warming in the Indian Mind, Thaker et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication

Most Indians are unfamiliar with the term "global warming": When asked to name the first word or phrase that came to mind, 58% were unable to give a specific response or said they do not know. Those familiar with “global warming” associate it primarily with heat, water, and pollution. Familiarity with the term “global warming” varies sharply, with higher recognition among more educated, higher income, and urban respondents.

Investing in the green economy 2026: Resilience and reacceleration, Dai et al., London Stock Exchange Group

The green economy has surpassed US$10 trillion despite energy shocks, policy divergence and market volatility. Against a backdrop of volatile markets, energy supply disruption and rising electricity demand, the authors analyze green investment opportunities and how the green transition is evolving by examining the size, growth, performance and financing of the global green economy across asset classes. The authors also examined how green assets are scaled via merger and acquisition with profitability analysis, the role of green bonds in supporting capital flows, and the diverging regional green economy shaped by decarbonization and energy security priorities.

50 State of Energy Affordability, Apadula et al., North Carolina Clean Energy Technology Center

The authors provide updates on state and utility actions to address rising electricity costs, including utility business model reforms, utility oversight and cost recovery, infrastructure planning and procurement processes, customer cost allocation, and customer programs.

Economic, Consumer Cost, and Pollution Impacts of Federal Energy Policy Changes, Robbie Orvis and Daniel O’Brien, Energy Innovation Policy and Technology

The United States’ energy policy framework has shifted dramatically during the second Trump administration and 119th Congress. Over the past one and a half years, the federal government has overhauled many legislative and regulatory policies, creating significant implications for clean energy deployment. Energy prices continue rising, exacerbating the affordability crisis Americans are facing. The authors used the Energy Policy Simulator to model federal policy decisions made since January 2025 to determine what the near future holds for families and businesses in terms of energy costs, public health, job losses, and grid reliability. The authors analyze the effects of policy changes on energy prices, the economy, air pollution, and healthcare spending from 2026 to 2040. The author's modeling shows higher energy costs, worsening public health effects, and less capacity added to the grid – blocking new generation when it is needed most and increasing utility costs.

Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, Dardour et al., International Renewable Energy Agency

Renewables remain the most cost-competitive source of new electricity generation. More than 90% of utility-scale renewable projects commissioned in 2025 delivered power below the cost of the cheapest new fossil-fuel plant built in their market. After more than a decade of steep declines, renewable power costs are stabilizing. In 2025, Solar PV remained at its 2024 level of USD $44/MWh, while wind continued to improve, with onshore wind falling to USD $33/MWh and offshore wind to USD $78/MWh. In contrast, most dispatchable renewable technologies recorded higher costs, with hydropower, geothermal and concentrating solar power rising to USD $62/MWh, USD $89/MWh and USD $115/MWh, respectively. Bioenergy was the exception, declining to USD $86/MWh. In 2025, renewables helped avoid an estimated USD 480 billion in fossil-fuel costs and about 8.4 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions, confirming their role not only as the cheapest new power, but as a pillar of energy security, economic stability and resilience.

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