Skeptical Science New Research for Week #35 2025

Posted on 28 August 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

Evaluating IPCC Projections of Global Sea-Level Change From the Pre-Satellite Era, Törnqvist et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006533

With an acceleration of global sea-level rise during the satellite altimetry era (since 1993) firmly established, it is now appropriate to examine sea-level projections made around the onset of this time period. Here we show that the mid-range projection from the Second Assessment Report of the IPCC (1995/1996) was strikingly close to what transpired over the next 30 years, with the magnitude of sea-level rise underestimated by only ∼1 cm. Projections of contributions from individual components were more variable, with a notable underestimation of dynamic mass loss from ice sheets. Nevertheless—and in view of the comparatively limited process understanding, modeling capabilities, and computational resources available three decades ago—these early attempts should inspire confidence in presently available global sea-level projections. Such multidecadal evaluations of past climate projections, as presented here for sea-level change, offer useful tests of past climate forecasts, and highlight the essential importance of continued climate monitoring.

Svalbard’s 2024 record summer: An early view of Arctic glacier meltdown?, Schuler et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

A record-breaking melt season affected the Arctic glaciers of Svalbard in summer 2024 by a substantial margin. Across the entire archipelago, glacier melting corresponded to an anomaly of up to four SD and exceeded any previous observation. The pan-Svalbard mass loss in summer 2024 amounts to ~61.7 ± 11.1 Gt and corresponds to 1% of the total ice volume on Svalbard and is comparable to that of the Greenland ice sheet (55 ± 35 Gt), which occupies an area about 50 times larger. Altogether, Svalbard and other glacier regions surrounding the Barents Sea lost 102.1 ± 22.9 Gt of ice in a single year and contributed 0.27 ± 0.06 mm (of which 0.16 mm alone is due to Svalbard) to global sea-level, putting the circum-Barents region among the strongest contributors to global sea-level rise in 2024. Most of the 2024 glacier melt occurred during a 6-wk period of persistent atmospheric circulation pattern causing record-high air temperatures, an event with an extremely low recurrence interval under current climate conditions. However, future climate projections suggest that such temperature levels will become increasingly commonplace by the end of the 21st century, potentially even surpassing those of 2024. Svalbard’s summer of 2024 serves as a forecast for future glacier meltdown in the Arctic, offering a glimpse into conditions 70 y ahead.

Attribution of Changes in Canadian Precipitation, Kirchmeier-Young et al., Atmosphere-Ocean

Total precipitation has increased over Canada, annually and seasonally. However, the drivers of this change have not been formally diagnosed. Globally, while changes in total precipitation have been attributed to anthropogenic forcing at larger scales, attribution at sub-continental scales has thus far been very limited. We perform a detection and attribution analysis using an optimal fingerprinting approach based on estimating equations to compare the observed changes in Canadian precipitation against CMIP6-model-based estimates of externally forced signals. For Canada as a whole and Northern Canada specifically, an anthropogenic forcing signal is detected in the observations, annually and for six-month warm and cool seasons over 1959-2018. For Southern Canada, observed records are longer and attribution is more robust at the century scale (1904-2018), where the observed increase in annual precipitation is attributed to anthropogenic forcing. Understanding the dominant role of anthropogenic forcing through a formal attribution analysis increases our confidence in the characterization of both past and future changes in precipitation over Canada.

Extreme Sahelian Rainfall Continues to Rise Despite Stable Storm Frequency, Spät et al., Geophysical Research Letters

Over the past 40+ years, extreme rainfall in the Sahel has increased faster than the mean seasonal rainfall. From the early 1980s to the late 2000s, the changes can be explained by the fact that the strongest storms became more frequent, likely because of changes in wind patterns linked to temperature differences across the region, especially the enhanced warming of the Sahara. However, since the late 2000s, the number of strong storms has stopped increasing, as warming intensified in both the northern Sahara and equatorial Africa and changed the wind pattern. Despite this, extreme rainfall has kept increasing, possibly due to widespread higher moisture levels in the atmosphere, influenced by warming ocean waters in the tropical Atlantic and the Mediterranean.

Physics-Based Indicators for the Onset of an AMOC Collapse Under Climate Change, van Westen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important tipping element in the climate system. There is a large uncertainty whether the AMOC will start to collapse during the 21st century under future climate change, as this requires long climate model simulations which are not always available. Here, we analyze targeted climate model simulations done with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with the aim to develop a physics-based indicator for the onset of an AMOC tipping event. This indicator is diagnosed from the surface buoyancy fluxes over the North Atlantic Ocean and is performing successfully under quasi-equilibrium freshwater forcing, freshwater pulse forcing, climate change scenarios, and for different climate models. An analysis consisting of 25 different climate models shows that the AMOC could begin to collapse by 2063 (from 2026 to 2095, 25th to 57th percentiles) under an intermediate emission scenario (SSP2-4.5), or by 2055 (from 2023 to 2076, 25th to 75th percentiles) under a high-end emission scenario (SSP5-8.5). When the AMOC collapses, the Northwestern European climate changes drastically and this will likely induce severe societal impacts.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Global climate change as a threat, Poushter et al., Pew Research Center

A median of 67% of adults across 25 nations say global climate change is a major threat to their country. Another 24% say it is a minor threat, and 9% say it is not a threat. In many of the high-income countries that were surveyed in both 2022 and 2025, the share of adults who see climate change as a major threat has decreased significantly. Majorities in all but three countries – Israel, Nigeria and the U.S. – see climate change as a major threat. Around eight-in-ten hold this view in Argentina, Brazil, France, Japan and South Korea. About a quarter of Israelis (24%) say climate change is not a threat – the largest share to take this stance across the countries surveyed. In the U.S., about a fifth of adults (19%) say the same.

Trump’s Unfolding Energy Crisis, Climate Power

Over 64,000 jobs have already been lost or stalled in the clean energy sector since Trump’s election. With rising energy demand driven by AI and extreme heat, gutting clean energy is already taking critical production offline and increasing costs for consumers. Americans across the nation are already seeing their utility costs skyrocket; the average family’s energy bill will increase by $130 annually by 2030 and $170 annually by 2035, with some states expected to see their bills rise by over $400 per year in the next decade.

154 articles in 68 journals by 870 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

A conceptual framework for understanding longwave cloud effects on climate sensitivity, Kluft et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-9075-2025

Climate forcing due to future ozone changes: an intercomparison of metrics and methods, Collins et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-9031-2025

Controls of the global overturning circulation of the ocean, Roquet et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-025-01185-8

Energy Conservation in a Cooling and Contracting Thermosphere, Nowak et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd042513

Physics-Based Indicators for the Onset of an AMOC Collapse Under Climate Change, van Westen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc022651

Quantifying Air–Sea Heat Fluxes over Southeast Asia and Their Response to Climate Change, Nguyen-Thanh et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0389.1

Observations of climate change, effects

Changes in Dry Season Length in Global Watersheds, Chen & Liu, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70078

Emergence of autumn rainy season in Korea due to tropical cyclone influence, Kim et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108340

Evaluating weather trends and forecasting with machine learning: Insights from maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and rainfall data in India, Guhan et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101562

Extreme Sahelian Rainfall Continues to Rise Despite Stable Storm Frequency, Spät et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115942

Local hourly trends in near-surface and land surface temperatures, Safieddine et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-15731-0

Rise in heat related mortality in the United States, Narayanan & Keellings Keellings, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000610

State of Wildfires 2024–25, Kelley et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-483

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Early detection of climate change-induced shallow landslides with IoT-technology, Hofmann et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02668-5

GIRAFE v1: a global climate data record for precipitation accompanied by a daily sampling uncertainty, Konrad et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-17-4097-2025

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Exploring Global Temperature Oscillations Using a Generalized Linear Box Model, Fredriksen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113994

Future Atlantification of the European Arctic limited under sustained global warming, De Rovere et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-16161-8

Future Changes in Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Precipitation and Size in Convection-Permitting Regional Model Simulations, Forbis & Patricola, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd043428

Impacts of Global Warming on Severe Drought in Northern Taiwan: A Future Projection Based on the Year 2021, Huang et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70094

Poleward migration of western North Pacific tropical cyclones driven by genesis location shift under global warming in HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA models, Li et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-025-01194-7

 Projections of Lightning-Ignited Wildfire Risk in the Western United States, Kalashnikov et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006108

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A Deep Learning Earth System Model for Efficient Simulation of the Observed Climate, Cresswell?Clay et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av001706

An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024

Heat Waves in Regional Climate Models: Three-Dimensional Insight and Links to Atmospheric Circulation Over Middle Europe, Plavcová et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115352

Uncertainty in projected changes of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall by CMIP6 models, Sooraj et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108424

Urban climate simulation for extreme heat events – A comparison between WRF and GEM, Marey et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102570

Cryosphere & climate change

An 85-year record of glacier change and refined projections for Kennicott and Root Glaciers, Alaska, Wells et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-62962-w

Brief communication: Representation of heat conduction into ice in marine ice shelf melt modelling, Wiskandt & Jourdain Jourdain, The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-3253-2025

Calving front positions for Greenland outlet glaciers (2002–2021): a spatially extensive seasonal record and benchmark dataset for algorithm validation, Lu et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-304

Decades-Long Evolution of Post-Fire Permafrost Deformation Detected by InSAR: Insights From Chronosequence in North Yukon, Cao & Furuya, AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av001849

Future winters promise less snow, more rain. Nobody’s prepared, McDermott, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2520764122

Loss of accumulation zone exposes dark ice and drives increased ablation at Weißseespitze, Austria, Hartl et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-384

Non-temperature environmental drivers modulate warming-induced 21st-century permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau, Ziteng et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-63032-x

Svalbard’s 2024 record summer: An early view of Arctic glacier meltdown?, Schuler et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2503806122

The Seasonality of Greenland Iceberg Melt and Its Influences on Fjord Properties and Dynamics, Kinne et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2025jc022587

Sea level & climate change

Assessing the impact of climate change and glacier retreat on sea level rise, coastal ecosystems, and vulnerable communities, Pallikonda et al., Journal of Earth System Science 10.1007/s12040-025-02643-w

Connecting the Past and the Future to Build Regional Sea-Level Projections, Le Bars & Drijfhout, Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005623

Deep Ocean Steric Sea Level Change in the Subtropical Northwest Atlantic Ocean, Zilberman et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl114158

Evaluating IPCC Projections of Global Sea-Level Change From the Pre-Satellite Era, Törnqvist et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006533

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

A climate of conflict: How the little ice age sparked rebellions and revolutions across Europe, Kaniewski et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105038

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Amazonian and Andean tree communities are not tracking current climate warming, Farfan-Rios et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2425619122

Anticipating ecological transformation in the Coorong, Australia: Capacities and knowledge for upstream engagement, Alexandra, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104147

Assessing the importance of prey, climate change, and human footprint for modeling current and future distribution of Leopardus guigna, Zamora?Cornejo et al., Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.70135

Background climate determines the response of spring leaf-out to climate change—Results from a national-scale twig-cutting experiment, Wang et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.70142

Climate Change Impacts on the Phenology of Laurentian Great Lakes Fishes, Piczak et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70436

Climate Change Is Altering Ecosystem Water Use Efficiency in Water-Limited Ecosystems, Green et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70459

Climate-driven spread of giant hogweed [Heracleum mantegazzianum (Sommier & Levier) in Turkey: assessing future invasion risks under CMIP6 climate projections, Farooq, BMC Plant Biology Open Access 10.1186/s12870-025-07145-x

Combining Niche Breadth to Predict the Current and Future Distribution of Leguminosae Under Climate Change on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, Chai et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71895

Decreasing foraminiferal flux in response to ongoing climate change in the Santa Barbara Basin, California, Havard et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-4035-2025

Drivers of Phytoplankton Communities Across Thermal Regimes and Marine Heatwaves in the U.S. Northeast Shelf, Cirivello et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2024jc022029

Future Projections of Biodiversity Under Global Change Need to Include Genetic Diversity, Henry, Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70477

Global thermal tolerance compilation for freshwater invertebrates and fish, Bayat et al., Scientific Data Open Access 10.1038/s41597-025-05832-w

Global warming reduces the carrying capacity of the tallest angiosperm species (Eucalyptus regnans), Trouvé et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-62535-x

Human Pressures Drive Global Mammalian Species Richness Loss and Community Change, Schooler & Belant, Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.70076

Human-Impacted Natural Ecosystems Drive Climate Warming, Mander et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70449

Impacts of Changing Winters on Lake Ecosystems Will Increase With Latitude, Ozersky et al., Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.70200

Increasing constraint of aridity on tree intrinsic water use efficiency, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-62845-0

Integrating multi-level approaches to assess blue mussel (Mytilus spp.) responses to short-term temperature and salinity changes, Guinle et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107436

Intensified Aridity Hinders Soil Microbes From Improving Their Nitrogen Use Efficiency, Yang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70453

Microbes Under Climate Refugia: Equable Subcommunity Rank Dynamics in Large-River Deltaic Estuaries, Liu et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72014

Nyinggulu Reef at Risk: Thermal Anomalies, Coral Mortality, and the Erosion of Resilience, Quigley, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70437

Ocean acidification impairs growth and induces oxidative stress in the macroalgae Ulva fasciata and Petalonia fascia, de Freitas et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107429

Outlasting the Heat: Collapse of Herbivorous Fish Control of Invasive Algae During Marine Heatwaves, Brijs et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70438

Population Decline for Plants in the California Floristic Province: Does Demography or Geography Determine Climate Change Vulnerability?, Backus et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.70067

Response of intertidal fucales to low-tide heat stress at their southern distributional limit, Pereira et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107433

Satellite mapping of emperor penguin habitat dispersal under climate extremes, Lin et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2025.114984

Short-Term Management of Kelp Forests for Marine Heatwaves Requires Planning, Hopf et al., Conservation Letters Open Access 10.1111/conl.13130

Spatiotemporal Distribution Patterns and Conservation Priorities of Gymnosperms With Different Leaf Shapes in China Under Climate Change, Fu et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71980

Spiny rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) responses to marine heatwave conditions in southern New Zealand, Gnanalingam et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107410

The influence of cross-generational warming on the juvenile development of a coral reef fish under ocean warming and acidification, Cane et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107451

Trait Plasticity and Warming Vulnerability in a Structurally Diverse Seagrass Ecosystem, Lawrence, Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72011

Unraveling Nonlinear Interactions: A DPSIR-Based Conceptual Model for Synergistic Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Coastal Blue Carbon Ecosystems, Duan et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70432

Warming aggravates physiological drought in Betula platyphylla during the winter–spring transitional period in Greater Khingan Mountains, Li et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126375

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Forest-to-Bog Restoration on Carbon Sequestration, Water Chemistry, and Biodiversity in Irish and British Peatlands, Fundira et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70016

Global decarbonization corresponding with unseasonal land cover change, HE et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-63144-4

Global Sensitivity Analysis of the Future Land Carbon Sink, Deepak et al., Atmosphere Open Access 10.1080/07055900.2025.2540430

Inferring methane emissions from African livestock by fusing drone, tower, and satellite data, van Hove et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-22-4163-2025

Lignin is an overlooked methane source in anoxic ecosystems, , Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01767-4

Potential buffering capacity of naturally distributed carbonate minerals against future rises in atmospheric CO₂ and coastal acidification: the Yellow Sea and three major estuaries in China, Shi et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107392

Soil CO₂ and CH₄ effluxes in powerline rights-of-way and their adjacent forests, Harel et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110801

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Variability and uncertainty in net ecosystem carbon exchange modeling: Systematic estimates at global flux sites via ensemble machine learning, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110784

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

A comprehensive review of the physicochemical properties and performance of novel carbon-based adsorbents for CO2 capture, Karimi & Ghaemi, Environmental Science and Pollution Research 10.1007/s11356-025-36803-8

Larger rock extraction sites could improve the efficiency of enhanced rock weathering in the United Kingdom, Madankan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02656-9

Public preferences for local carbon capture and utilization implementation: A French-German comparison, Schomakers et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114781

Decarbonization

“Do you think that coal will finish?”: The (Im)possibilities of living with and without coal in a central Indian coalfield, Krishnan et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104304

A database for identifying and tracking renewable energy embodied in global trade, Yang et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-025-01614-9

Annoyance and memory performance in the presence of wind turbine sound, Garcia-Guerrero et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102653

Dynamic sustainability assessment of critical mineral resources for China's EV industry: A multi-national niche and grey model approach, Guo & Zou, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114837

How flexible is the German biogas sector? Stakeholder acceptance of flexible feeding options to support better system integration, Herbes & Apfel, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114795

Invisible hands in energy transitions: installers in the European post-industrial cities of Gothenburg and Rotterdam, van Tuijl et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104290

Navigating energy transition solutions for climate targets with minerals constraint, Wei et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02373-3

Sustainable ethanol production: CO₂ emission analysis and feedstock strategies through life cycle assessment, Kumar & Sinha, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101775

Aerosols

Aerosols drive the missed global brightening recently in ERA5 and ERAI over Japan, Gao et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 10.1002/qj.70011

Response of PM_2.5 concentration to climate variability and climate change prediction in China, Li et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar 10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106588

Shoreline wave breaking strongly enhances the coastal sea spray aerosol population: Climate and air quality implications, Zhou et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adw0343

Climate change communications & cognition

Climate Change Information Seeking: A Scoping Review, Zhang et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102742

Downplaying extreme heat: global imaginaries of ‘relative invulnerability’ and ‘common sense’ adaptation, Sou, Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2025.2546377

Extreme Weather and Climate Change Attitudes: Limited Partisan Motivated Reasoning in Response to Sweden’s 2018 Heatwave, Linde & Matti, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102743

Finite pool of worry and emotions in climate change tweets during COVID-19, Smirnov et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102728

Personal actions or systemic solutions: How the focus of the conversation influences willingness to talk about environmental issues, Allen & Hooker Tang Shen Buswell Kahalas Perley Qi Arora Mahmoudi-Aznaveh Laika Kuang Lenferink Arora Verbruggen Choi Cheong Smeralda Liang Rapp Kimura , The Encyclopedia of Adulthood and Aging Open Access 10.1002/9781118521373.wbeaa117

Regional dynamics of public attitudes toward climate change policy, regulatory strategies, and the energy transition in the United States, Ayinla et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104291

The complaining but competent confronter: An experimental examination of the social costs and benefits related to interpersonal confrontations in climate change conversations, Klaperski-van der Wal et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102738

The lasting effect of the Romantic view of nature: How it influences perceptions of risk and the support of symbolic actions against climate change, Siegrist & Berthold, Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.17672

The public’s views on climate policies in seven large global south countries, Carson et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-025-02389-9

Understanding Underlying Moral Values and Language Use of Climate Change Attitudes on X (formerly Twitter) and Weibo, Song et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102736

“I have no future” - the critical need to counter climate doomism, Stuart, Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2025.2552388

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Climate-smart biofuel policy as a pathway to decarbonize agriculture, Khanna et al., Science 10.1126/science.adw6739

Climate-Smart Agriculture Adoption and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review, Yiridomoh et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70017

Co-production of knowledge on climate change, its effects, and adaptation measures: A gender-responsive qualitative study of smallholder farmers, Bwalya & Mwanza, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000531

Gender-group membership intersectionality and determinants of indigenous climate adaptation of smallholder farmers for climate risk management in northern Ghana, Guodaar, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100737

Genetic origins and climate-induced erosion in economically important Asian walnuts, Fan et al., Conservation Biology Open Access 10.1111/cobi.70125

Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024

Rising Heat, Rising Risks: Understanding the Nexus of Marine Heatwaves, Fishing Dependence, and Vulnerability to Coastal Communities, Dowd et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70454

Scientific meetings debate the effect of climate change on future food production, , Nature Open Access 10.1038/d41586-025-02534-6

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Attribution of Changes in Canadian Precipitation, Kirchmeier-Young et al., Atmosphere Open Access 10.1080/07055900.2025.2545849

Changes in Dry Season Length in Global Watersheds, Chen & Liu, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70078

Divergent Spatiotemporal Patterns and Climate Responses of Lateral and Internal Lake Drainage in the Northern Permafrost Region, Yang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117233

Changes in Dry Season Length in Global Watersheds, Chen & Liu, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70078

Emergence of autumn rainy season in Korea due to tropical cyclone influence, Kim et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108340

Evaluating weather trends and forecasting with machine learning: Insights from maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and rainfall data in India, Guhan et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101562

Extreme Sahelian Rainfall Continues to Rise Despite Stable Storm Frequency, Spät et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115942

Rise in heat related mortality in the United States, Narayanan & Keellings Keellings, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000610

State of Wildfires 2024–25, Kelley et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-483

Emergence of autumn rainy season in Korea due to tropical cyclone influence, Kim et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108340

Producing Hydrological Projections Under Climate Change: A Groundwater-Inclusive Practical Guide, Mourot et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006316

Soil Moisture Dynamics in South America: A Multi-Dataset Analysis From 1990 to 2020, Saito et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70047

The future intensification of hydrological extremes and whiplashes in the contiguous United States increase community vulnerability, Maharjan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02672-9

Warming climate and water withdrawals threaten river flow connectivity in China, Gou et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2421046122

Climate change economics

Roll with the punches: Climate change regulation and short-term financing, Wang, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114805

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Climate action close to home: The role of public attitudes and policy responses in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, Ebner et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104264

Conceptualizing supply- and demand-side climate change mitigation: A typology and new research directions, Pichler et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104225

Energy transition and equity: Quantifying pathways to building decarbonization based on notions of fairness, De Simone et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114798

Forest carbon program enrollment in Pennsylvania falls below survey predictions, Weber et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02657-8

Simulation-based analysis of country-specific mitigation strategies to decarbonize the passenger car fleet: A comparison between Germany, Poland, and Norway, Ginster et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.70089

The impact of electricity and fossil fuel prices on electric vehicle new registrations in the European Union, Kucharski et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114842

The public’s views on climate policies in seven large global south countries, Carson et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-025-02389-9

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Assessing the impact of climate change and glacier retreat on sea level rise, coastal ecosystems, and vulnerable communities, Pallikonda et al., Journal of Earth System Science 10.1007/s12040-025-02643-w

Climate change impacts on roadways, Sias et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-025-00711-9

Cognitive bias in perceived concern with rainfall: Implications for climate adaptation, Skog et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102737

Drivers and barriers to municipal climate change adaptation: a comparative analysis of selected measures and different implementation stages, Otto et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences Open Access 10.1007/s13412-025-01049-w

Future winters promise less snow, more rain. Nobody’s prepared, McDermott, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2520764122

Impact of extreme climates on sustainable cooling: A case study of a subtropical office building, Yu et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102583

Navigating justice tensions in managed retreat, Bower et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104191

Risk Storylines: A Community-Led Discussion between Disaster and Climate Science, Cocuccioni et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0155.1

Scenario-dependent discounting for climate change adaptation decisions for infrastructure, Nasr et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2549563

Climate change impacts on human health

Extreme heat preparedness and coping among older adults: A rapid review, Doherty et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000689

Health: The missing metric in climate ambition: The case for health-inclusive NDCs – ambitious climate action to save lives, Cresto Aleina & Beagley, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000694

Long-term impacts of heatwaves on accelerated ageing, Chen et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02407-w

Medical expenditures under climate change and SSP-informed physiological and socioeconomic scenarios in China, Zhu et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103052

Rise in heat related mortality in the United States, Narayanan & Keellings Keellings, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000610

Warming climate and hot cities foster cool solutions in China, Gronwald & Lichtfouse, Environmental Chemistry Letters 10.1007/s10311-025-01872-1

Climate change impacts on human culture

Environmental Impact and Carbon Emissions of Sport Events: The Significance of Scope 3, Bae & McCullough, WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70017

Other

The ClimateHack: How tech entrepreneurship shapes climate action, Bialski et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104184

Who is Imaged as Being Related to Climate Change? Localization and Individualization of Human Visual Images in China Search Engine, Su et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2544563

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Anticipating ecological transformation in the Coorong, Australia: Capacities and knowledge for upstream engagement, Alexandra, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104147

Climate models need more frequent releases of input data — here’s how to do it, Naik et al., Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-02642-3

Future winters promise less snow, more rain. Nobody’s prepared, McDermott, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2520764122

NASA’s Earth-observing satellites are crucial — commercial missions cannot replace them, Wood, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-02685-6

Securing climate justice in the courtroom, Nogrady, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-02623-6

---

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Trump’s Unfolding Energy Crisis, Climate Power

Over 64,000 jobs have already been lost or stalled in the clean energy sector since Trump’s election. With rising energy demand driven by AI and extreme heat, gutting clean energy is already taking critical production offline and increasing costs for consumers. Americans across the nation are already seeing their utility costs skyrocket; the average family’s energy bill will increase by $130 annually by 2030 and $170 annually by 2035, with some states expected to see their bills rise by over $400 per year in the next decade.

The Demand Side Grid Support Program: An Assessment of Scale and Valu, Hledik et al., The Brattle Group

The Demand Side Grid Support (DSGS) program is a taxpayer funded program run by the California Energy Commission (CEC), designed to improve the reliability of the California power system by tapping into the capabilities of behind-the-meter (BTM) resources such as batteries. Sunrun and Tesla Energy commissioned The Brattle Group to evaluate the benefits and costs of DSGS Option 3, which is the participation option that accommodates battery storage. DSGS storage capacity has scaled quickly, and continued growth is expected. DSGS can provide significant net cost savings to California, especially in a suddenly inflationary environment.

Climate Change and Workplace Heat Stress, Flouris et al., World Health Organization and the World Meteorological Organization

The frequency and intensity of extreme heat events have risen sharply, increasing risks for both outdoor and indoor workers. Worker productivity drops by 2–3% for every degree above 20°C. Health risks include heatstroke, dehydration, kidney dysfunction, and neurological disorders, all of which hinder long-term health and economic security. Approximately half the global population suffers adverse consequences of high temperatures.

Global climate change as a threat, Poushter e tal., Pew Research Center

A median of 67% of adults across 25 nations say global climate change is a major threat to their country. Another 24% say it is a minor threat, and 9% say it is not a threat. In many of the high-income countries that were surveyed in both 2022 and 2025, the share of adults who see climate change as a major threat has decreased significantly. Majorities in all but three countries – Israel, Nigeria and the U.S. – see climate change as a major threat. Around eight-in-ten hold this view in Argentina, Brazil, France, Japan and South Korea. About a quarter of Israelis (24%) say climate change is not a threat – the largest share to take this stance across the countries surveyed. In the U.S., about a fifth of adults (19%) say the same.

Understanding data centre water use in England, techUK, techUK and the Environment Agency

The authors examine water use across England’s commercial data centres. They offer evidence into how data centres use and manage water amid the growing interest of the environmental footprint of digital infrastructure. 51% of surveyed sites use waterless cooling systems. 64% use less than 10,000 m³ of water per year – less than a typical leisure centre. 89% of sites either measure water use or deploy systems that do not require water for cooling. These findings challenge assumptions that data centres are inherently water-intensive. Instead, many facilities are already deploying efficient and climate-conscious solutions, and the industry is well-positioned to build on these efficiency gains in the coming years.

Coal is losing ground but not letting go: Structural inertia and the struggle to shift coal’s role in China’s power system, Qi Qin and Christine Shearer, The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air nad the Global Energy Monitor

Although there were some signs of coal power slowing down in 2024 and 2025 has seen China’s clean energy boom meet a significant amount of power demand growth and lower CO2 emissions, coal power remains strong, with new and revived projects the highest in a decade. In H1 2025, 21 gigawatts (GW) of coal power were commissioned, the highest amount in the first half of the year since 2016, with projections for the full year exceeding 80 GW. This increase in commissions follows on the tail of the 2022-2023 coal power permitting surge that saw two new coal projects permitted per week, on average, totaling more than 100 GW of coal power approved per year. This trend will likely continue into 2026 and 2027, unless policy action is taken. Only 25 GW were permitted in H1 2025, yet new and revived projects came to 75 GW in H1 2025, the highest in a decade, and construction starts and restarts reached 46 GW, equivalent to the entire coal power capacity of South Korea.

SAFER (Strategic Adaptation for Emergency Resilience), Read et al., Climate Majority Project

Too often, they can’t picture it at all: an abstract story of invisible gases, distant timelines, and carbon footprints. Perhaps unsurprisingly, this ‘colourless, odourless’ representation of climate has struggled to inspire the scale of mobilisation that climate breakdown demands. To mobilise a majority, climate action must become something people can feel as well as understand – not just a different story, but a different way of living. Until recently, climate adaptation has been sidelined within the broader environmental movement, dismissed as a distraction or even a threat to urgent mitigation efforts. This rationale report equips advocates with narrative tools to challenge this mindset, reframing ecologically sound adaptation as a legitimate and foundational form of climate action.

DRAFT Cleveland-Elyria Metropolitan Statistical Area Comprehensive Climate Action Plan, Northeast Ohio Areawide Coordinating Agenc, Office of Sustainability and Climate Justice, City of Cleveland

The Comprehensive Climate Action Plan (CCAP) for the Cleveland-Elyria Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) includes a discussion of how the climate is already changing in and the expected changes through 2050; a review of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by sector and the measures the MSA can take to lower those emissions by 2050; a plan to help communities across the MSA implement these measures; and additional technical appendices

Delaware Residents’ Opinions on Climate Change, Responsive Management, Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control, Division of Climate, Coastal and Energy

According to the latest survey, it is clear that climate change remains a top concern for a significant majority of Delawareans with many believing that it poses a serious threat that will harm future generations. The 2025 survey was administered to 1,520 Delaware residents via phone, text and online between Feb. 5 and Feb. 18, 2025. 74% of Delawareans remain very or somewhat concerned about climate change. 79% of Delawareans view climate change as a very or somewhat serious threat. 55% of Delawareans agree that they have experienced or observed local impacts of climate change. 58% of Delawareans believe that climate change will harm them personally, with an even larger share (79%) feeling the same about the harm it will cause future generations. 66% of Delawareans agree that Delaware can take more action to reduce climate change. 59% of Delawareans agree that they personally can take actions to reduce climate change.

Long-Term Load and DER Forecasting, Giraldez et al., Energy Systems Integration Group

Traditional methods, which allocate load and distributed energy resource (DER) growth based on proportional scaling of energy consumption, peak demand, or customer count, often fail to capture emerging geospatial adoption patterns. To accurately predict future energy demand requires explicit modeling of various demand-side modifiers to arrive at a net load forecast—including energy efficiency, solar, battery storage, economic growth, new customer business loads, electric vehicle charging, and building electrification. The authors outline key elements of a more geospatially and temporally granular, scenario-based approach, including (1) high-resolution, time-based (hourly) forecasts to capture the correlated effects of weather on demand, generation, and the nuances of DER behavior, and (2) methods that account for the underlying drivers of new sector demands and technology adoption, such as price signals and policy drivers. Scenario-based forecasting approaches better equip planners across grid planning entities and within planning departments to assess a range of possible futures and provide opportunities for greater coordination across planning entities to improve system-wide preparedness.

Taking Green Energy Projects to Court: NEPA Review and Court Challenges to Renewable Energy. Obstacles to Energy Infrastructure Project, Fraas et al., Resources for the Future

The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) is often identified as a major obstacle to renewable energy projects locating on federal public lands or seeking federal funding. Once NEPA permits have been issued, a project may face additional delays if a federal agency’s decision is challenged in court. The authors examine the legal challenges faced by each project presenting the timeline in months for each case. Nearly a third of solar projects and half of wind projects completing NEPA environmental impact statement reviews faced court challenges. Almost all cases were filed after the government agencies had issued their permitting decisions. Although the courts typically ruled in the government agencies’ and project developers’ favor, the majority of cases were appealed. Court challenges in both federal and state courts caused or contributed to the termination of three projects, and six additional projects experienced significant delays as developers awaited court appeal decisions. Wind and solar projects that faced court challenges took an average of about 15 months longer to reach operational status than projects without court challenges.

How Long Does It Take? National Environmental Policy Act Timelines and Outcomes for Clean Energy Projects, Fraas et al., Resources for the Future

Growing demand for electricity and increased interest in affordable clean energy sources have created a rich economic opportunity for renewable energy developers in recent years. However, developers have long expressed frustration with the myriad obstacles to building new generation projects—in particular, selecting a site and securing the necessary leases and federal permits. The National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) establishes a process of environmental review that is compulsory for any major action, including the financing of solar and wind projects and construction of utility-scale renewable energy projects on federal lands. Its requirements are often mentioned as a major obstacle to renewable energy development, but does the NEPA process significantly delay renewable energy projects? Would adjustments to NEPA accelerate the clean energy transition? The authors examine the experience for solar, wind, and geothermal power plants that completed the NEPA process from 2009 to 2023 to provide new insights into these questions. Over this period, they found that the solar and wind projects subject to NEPA review account for only a small fraction of the total utility-scale renewable capacity brought online from 2010 through 2023. These renewable projects completed the formal NEPA process in less time than the average time for all project types across all federal agencies. Almost two-thirds of these solar and wind projects did so within one to two years; however, a number of the remaining projects required substantially longer.

The Procedural Hangover. How NEPA Litigation Obstructs Critical Projects, Trembath et al., The Breakthrough Institute

The authors examines the patterns of NEPA challenges brought by plaintiffs before both the District and Circuit Courts from 2013 to 2022. They compiled and reviewed an exhaustive list of over 2,000 District-level judicial opinions that referenced NEPA filed between 2013 and 2022 using the legal research platform Westlaw. Cases that did not contain substantive NEPA claims were excluded, and relevant variables were systematically coded for the remaining opinions. This rigorous screening process reduced the dataset to 1,435 District rulings. Subsequently, these judicial opinions were integrated with the corresponding dataset of Circuit court rulings that we compiled for a previous study.

The first evidence of a take-off in solar in Africa, Dave Jones, Ember

The author presents an analysis of Africa’s imports of solar panels from China. The Chinese solar panel export data gives valuable insights because it includes imports up to June 2025, at a monthly granularity, and for every country in the world. It is sourced from the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC), using the code 85414300 “Photovoltaic cells assembled in modules or made up into panels”. The value in USD is then converted into megawatts of solar panel capacity using average monthly PV module price.

---

About New Research

Click here for the why and how of Skeptical Science New Research.

Suggestions

Please let us know if you're aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we've missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.