Skeptical Science New Research for Week #38 2026

Posted on 17 September 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

Projected amplification of global warming by warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions, Abernethy et al., Environmental Research Letters

Warming-induced emissions (WIE) of greenhouse gases from natural sources are a large amplifying feedback that most climate models do not yet represent. This absence risks systematic underestimation of projected future warming and overestimation of remaining carbon budgets. To assess the potential magnitude of these feedbacks, we derived relationships between global temperature and WIE rates from process-based model estimates across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP4-6.0. The warming-induced methane emission rate from permafrost, wetlands, freshwaters, and wildfire combined increases with temperature at an estimated 97 ± 6 Tg CH4 yr−1 °C−1 across all three scenarios, while the warming-induced carbon dioxide emission rate from permafrost and wildfire combined increases at 7 ± 1 Pg CO2 yr−1 °C−1 in SSP2-4.5 and SSP4-6.0. Using the MAGICC climate model, we projected that WIE could add 0.2 °C–0.4 °C of warming by 2100 across scenarios, split roughly equally between carbon dioxide and methane, amplifying post-2020 anthropogenic warming by 20%–30%. Combined emission sensitivity and climate response 1σ uncertainties are ±0.2 °C on the added warming and ±10%–30% on the warming amplification.

Interpreting Ensembles of Climate Projections for Impact Studies, Chandler & Brierley, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change

To study the potential impacts of future changes in the earth's climate, projections of these changes are required. These are usually produced using complex computer models, and are subject to many uncertainties which are often sampled using collections (“ensembles”) of model simulations. However, the sampling in any individual ensemble is incomplete and often unrepresentative. This creates challenges for users of the projections, especially when it is important to understand the range of potential impacts that can reasonably be expected. Other challenges include the presence of systematic discrepancies between the model outputs and observations of the real climate system; and the fact that it is often infeasible to work with all members of an ensemble so that an appropriate subset must be chosen. Various approaches have been suggested for addressing each of these issues: a critical review is provided here, to allow an informed choice depending on the requirements of a given application.

The emergence of climate migration research as an academic field, Kohutova et al., Frontiers in Climat

This study examines how research on climate migration has developed from a dispersed topic of academic interest into a distinct academic field. Although the links between environment and human mobility have been studied for over a century, less attention has been paid to how knowledge has been structured and institutionalized around this topic. To address this gap, the article examines how climate migration scholarship has grown, organized its scholarly community, and gained recognition from external actors. Drawing on theories of field formation, we analyse four dimensions of academic fields: differentiation from other research areas, epistemic and social coherence among scholars, their social infrastructure and legitimacy-building. The study uses a mixed-methods approach combining bibliometric analysis, document and policy review, and expert interviews. The findings show that the formation of climate migration as a research field was a cumulative process. Policy attention brought resources for more research, while a shared understanding that climate migration is driven by multiple interacting factors, not climate alone, gave scholars common ground to organize around. Expanding citations and co-authorships networks then gave the field its structure over time. However, the field formation remains uneven. The networks are geographically uneven, research is being published across hundreds of journals, and theoretical frameworks are underdeveloped. Overall, the article shows how new research topics consolidate as academic fields and argues that the label of ‘research field' is not merely descriptive because it impacts visibility, resources, and epistemic authority.

Future warming enhances rates of population increase of arthropod crop pests globally, Molina et al., Ecography

We compiled a dataset on the thermal biology of arthropod crop pests and fitted TPCs to examine the projected shifts in performance under historic and future climates relative to their thermal niches, which were examined through modelling the latitudinal variation of their population-level thermal limits. Our findings highlight that most arthropod crop pests are projected to increase their thermal potential for population growth under warming by 2050, with temperate populations retaining room to grow but tropical populations increasingly exposed to heat stress. These findings can be explained by the asymmetric variation of thermal niche limits for these intrinsic rates of population increase, since we found that lower thermal limits declined with latitude, while upper thermal limits remained constant.

From this week's government/NGO section:

Communicating about Climate and Clean Energy in an Age of Affordability, Andrea Everett, Heatmap and Embold Research

Each phase of research built on the previous one, starting with a large national survey to uncover the core values, priorities, and beliefs of three broad segments of the electorate with different views of climate change. These groups were labelled as Skeptics, Persuadables, and Persuadeds. For climate and clean energy communicators, the electorate is best understood as three distinct audiences. Persuadeds already believe in the 11 urgency of climate action and clean energy. What they lack is the conviction that their own actions matter, so the core tasks are to give them concrete, achievable things to do and to help them see that their efforts matter. Persuadables are open but unconvinced, and on the central issue of clean energy affordability they demand proof they can see close to home, rather than broad statistics or slogans. Skeptics, meanwhile, may be reachable through appeals to their values of personal freedom and energy independence, supplemented by evidence on cost and reliability, but with so few trusted messengers to make the case, clean energy remains a tough sell.

What are the top social media platforms used by each of Global Warming’s Six Americas?, Ettinger et al., Yale University and George Mason University

In Fall 2025, as part of a biannual Climate Change in the American Mind survey, the authors asked a nationally representative sample of Americans (n = 1,146) how often they visit 14 different social media platforms. They were also asked how often they hear about global warming on social media. Across Global Warming’s Six Americas, the most commonly visited social media platforms are YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. The Alarmed hear about global warming on social media more often than other segments of the Six Americas.

94 articles in 53 journals by 625 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Contrasting SST modes explain decadal intensification of Pacific Walker Circulation, Li et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109338

Projected amplification of global warming by warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions, Abernethy et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ae9e24

Substantial contribution of land-atmosphere interactions to the intensification of compound drought and heatwave events under rising CO₂, Xing et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105722

Warming of the subpolar North Pacific accelerated by sea ice retreat and wind changes, Ge et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-026-01541-2

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Transient overturning changes cause an upper-ocean nutrient decline in a warming climate, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52200-0 13 cites.

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Observations of climate change, effects

Extreme Dry and Humid Heat Seasons Are Changing Asymmetrically, Ivanovich et al., AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026av002516

Global drought shows no detectable recent acceleration under climate warming, Xu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03954-6

In situ observations reveal continental-scale warming, oxygen decline, and eutrophication in U.S. estuaries, Reinl et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03934-w

Rapid increase of climate extremes reveals new areas of concern in Amazonia, Barlow et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03975-1

State of Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2025: A Review, Marengo et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70581

Warming accelerates drought–flood oscillations and stratifies socioeconomic exposure, Qi et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access pdf 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag283

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Cyclone Gabrielle as a Design Storm for Northeastern Aotearoa New Zealand Under Anthropogenic Warming, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2024ef004772 22 cites.

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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A global hourly ISIMIP3 climate forcing dataset for impact modeling, Bechtold et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-6637-2026

Interpreting Ensembles of Climate Projections for Impact Studies, Chandler & Brierley, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.70088

Introduction to the Concept of Regional Frameworks for Climate Services (RFCS), Golding et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-25-0207.1

Regularized Fingerprinting with Linearly Optimal Weight Matrix in Detection and Attribution of Climate Change, Li & Li, Journal of Climate pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0740.1

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
What is a heat wave: A survey and literature synthesis of heat wave definitions across the United States, PLOS Climate, 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000468 18 cites.

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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Central Asian Future Dynamics of Coldwave and Cold Spell Under Changing Climate, Ledari et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70585

Evaluating Changes in Convective Environments Over Subtropical South America Under Forced and Natural Climate Variability, Chakraborty et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl125330

Global shifts in mountain wave turbulence within high resolution climate models, Smith et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-7-1733-2026

High-resolution projections of summer compound humid-heat extremes and GDP exposure in Eastern China, Yang et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109341

Impacts of Different Anthropogenic Forcings on Tropical Cyclone Frequency in Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations, Henry et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0442.1

Projected Changes in Wind Hazards From Extreme Extratropical Cyclones in the Northeastern U.S., Valle et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd046823

Projecting Compound Wind-Rainfall Hazards From Tropical Cyclones in China Under Climate Change, Xu et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008431

Projecting Spatial Synchrony and Socioeconomic Risk of Heatwaves and Extreme Precipitation in the future, Li et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100958

The Future of Atmospheric Heatwaves in Chile Projected by a Regional Climate Model, Petit-Laurent et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70567

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Strong regional trends in extreme weather over the next two decades under high- and low-emissions pathways, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01511-4 53 cites.

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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A global hourly ISIMIP3 climate forcing dataset for impact modeling, Bechtold et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-6637-2026

Current model capabilities and future predictive pathways of wildfires under a changing climate, Whaley et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04013-w

Deciphering the Link Between Modeling Errors and the North Atlantic Surface Warming Pattern Projected by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models, Douville et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl122158

Improving soil temperature simulation accuracy in Arctic permafrost regions by incorporation surface organic layer in CLM5.0, Liu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111476

Interpreting Ensembles of Climate Projections for Impact Studies, Chandler & Brierley, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.70088

Km-scale regional coupled system in the Northwest European shelf for weather and climate applications: RCS-UKC4, Berthou et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-8535-2026

The added value of Med-CORDEX coupled high-resolution regional climate models in representing sea surface temperature and marine heatwaves in the Mediterranean Sea, Rovere et al., Ocean science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-22-2725-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.914 115 cites.

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Cryosphere & climate change

Illusory early-warning signals of Greenland Ice Sheet destabilization, Robel et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2623190123

On thin glacial ice: New Austrian Glacier Inventory shows accelerating glacier shrinkage and 31 % area loss within two decades, Hartl et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-5157-2026

Projecting the evolution of the Northern Patagonian Icefield until the year 2200, Schaefer et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-5115-2026

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2024ef004561 73 cites.

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Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Recognition of two potential warming events in the Paleocene terrestrial record of North America and associated mammalian responses, Secord et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access pdf 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag289

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Opposing Changes in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability Produced by Orbital and Anthropogenic Forcing, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl109897 8 cites.

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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Biome classification across global vegetation models reveals consistent biome shifts under future climate change, Scheiter et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-6409-2026

Broad-scale shift in dominance of arbuscular mycorrhizal trees along the Japanese archipelago associated with tree diseases and climate warming, Schaefer et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77711-w

Distribution and Habitat Suitability of Artemisia annua in China Under Climate Change Scenarios, Zhang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.74236

Evolution of flowering phenology over 44 years of climate change, Deurs et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2613665123

Experimental evidence of a biological soil crust degradation climate warming amplification feedback, Smith et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03874-5

Long-Term Warming Reduces Bacterial Diversity and Functional Potential in Temperate Forest Soil, Liu et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71104

Seasonally asymmetric warming reshapes grassland stability across timescales, Lu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2608466123

The projected risk of plant invasions on the peri-Antarctic islands under climate change, Vorstenbosch et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecog.08195

When warming stops lengthening the growing season: Insights from two decades of forest phenology in Central Europe, Nasiri et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111457

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global change and premature hatching of aquatic embryos, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17488 22 cites.

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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Assessment of Spatial Downscaling Used in Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimates, Sun et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008225

Forest Floor Protection: The Critical Defense Against Post-Harvest Soil Carbon Loss, Wallace et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jg009694

From abandoned fishponds to mature mangroves: the integrated CO₂ balance of two contrasting coastal wetland landscapes, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111469

High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Refines the Time of Emergence of Sea Level Rise in the Northwestern Pacific, Kang et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008543

Imaging deep carbon stocks with complex electrical conductivity, Orozco et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-23-6287-2026

Inefficient consumption of natural gas drives methane emissions from a megacity, Zhao et al., Atmospheric chemistry and physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-26-12911-2026

Methane emissions from municipal solid waste landfills in Tehran: Field measurements and modeling of a NASA-identified global super-emitter, Hassanabadi et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2026.122355

Projected amplification of global warming by warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions, Abernethy et al., Environmental Research Letters Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ae9e24

Spatial-Temporal Distribution Dynamics of Carbon Storage of Dominant Species in a Subtropical Evergreen Broad-Leaved Forest and Its Influencing Factors, Duan et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jg008947

White Carbon: Bringing Managed Salterns Into Coastal Carbon Accounting, He, Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jg010199

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global riverine land-to-ocean carbon export constrained by observations and multi-model assessment, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01524-z 96 cites.

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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

CCS deployment policy choices under regional heterogeneity: Economy-wide impacts and spillovers in China, Xiao et al., Energy Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115616

Deterministic Cost Estimation Approaches for Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: A Review, Mohajeri & Azadbakht, Greenhouse Gases Science and Technology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ghg.70043

Marine carbon removal at a crossroads, Macreadie et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02740-8

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Enhancing electrochemical carbon dioxide capture with supercapacitors, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52219-3 61 cites.

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Decarbonization

A 250-kilowatt system for co-production of hydrogen and fresh water from seawater, Jiang et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-026-02130-6

Accelerating renewable energy transitions in Sub-Saharan Africa: Lessons from Latin America, Moyo & Oree, Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2026.102137

Critical gaps remain in carbon accounting at mine sites, Mervine et al., Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2026.2730003

Photovoltaic deployment strategies for net-zero commercial buildings in India: A climate-zoned benchmarking approach, Azeem & Thomas, Energy Sustainable Development/Energy for sustainable development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2026.102135

Physical and Biogeochemical Ocean Response to Potential Offshore Wind Development Along the U.S. West Coast, Jacox et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl123676

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Permeability partitioning through the brittle-to-ductile transition and its implications for supercritical geothermal reservoirs, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52092-0 29 cites.

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Geoengineering climate

Impact of stratospheric aerosol injection on rangeland productivity and animal production in Africa, Ho et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1869700

Land Radiative Management Increases Heat Stress in Some Humid Regions, Cheng & McColl, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl125630

Pathway-dependent responses of temperature extremes under solar radiation modification over Northern Africa, Sian et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access 10.3389/feart.2026.1884589

Aerosols

Impacts of Anthropogenic Aerosol-Forced North Atlantic SST Variability on the Simulated Historical Global Warming, Rashid, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl124086

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Surface albedo regulates aerosol direct climate effect, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52255-z 28 cites.

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Climate change communications & cognition

Patient knowledge and views on the health impacts of climate change in primary care: a cross-sectional survey study, Stewart et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1930073

Shifting configurations of nationalism, populism, and conservatism: far-right environmental discourse on agriculture, climate, and energy, Lambrechts & Cleen, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2026.2728447

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Tackling the academic air travel dependency. An analysis of the (in)consistency between academics’ travel behaviour and their attitudes, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102908 27 cites.

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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Evaluating climate-driven agricultural suitability models for adaptation planning: stakeholder insights from British Columbia, Vakhshoori et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1928659

Exploring Behavioral and Social Dynamics in Crop Insurance Adoption amid Climate Change: Evidence from Paddy Farmers in Tamil Nadu, India, Thiyaharajan et al., Weather Climate and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0063.1

Future warming enhances rates of population increase of arthropod crop pests globally, Molina et al., Ecography Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecog.08568

Impact of stratospheric aerosol injection on rangeland productivity and animal production in Africa, Ho et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1869700

Local climate variability indicators show differentiated socioecological impacts and opportunities for agroforestry-based adaptation in the Colombian Andean-Amazon, Ángel-Sánchez et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1881072

Minimizing climate change adaptation trade-offs in African rangelands, Clark et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41893-026-01938-0

New labour and agricultural damages improve climate cost estimates, Moore et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02749-z

Participatory assessment of agricultural value chain dynamics and market opportunities for smallholder farmers in climate-vulnerable coastal Bangladesh, Kabir et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-71038-8

Rethinking climate vulnerability in livestock systems: evidence from exposure, adaptation, and within-system heterogeneity in West Africa, Adéchian et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1868024

Sustainable grazing management supports climate change mitigation in a mediterranean pasture, Ishaq et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1917508

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate change exacerbates the environmental impacts of agriculture, Science, 10.1126/science.adn3747 524 cites.

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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Extreme Dry and Humid Heat Seasons Are Changing Asymmetrically, Ivanovich et al., AGU Advances Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026av002516

Intensified Warm-Season Nighttime Precipitation over Large Tibetan Plateau Lakes: Evidence from Satellite Observations, Yang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.09.006

Water governance under pressure: neoliberal structures and collaborative freshwater management in Lincolnshire, United Kingdom, Tariq et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1840817

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Evaluation of precipitation extremes in ERA5 reanalysis driven regional climate simulations over the CORDEX-Australasia domain, Weather and Climate Extremes, 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100676 17 cites.

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Climate change economics

Green energy and the shadow economy: implications for environmental sustainability in G7 countries, Uddin et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1871821

Guaranteed income as an anticipatory action for climate change and disaster preparedness in the US, Prandoni et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1838033

Rethinking overseas expansion: climate risk and Chinese corporations’ cross-border mergers and acquisitions, Guo & Wu, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1896051

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The role of green financial sector initiatives in the low-carbon transition: A theory of change, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102915 30 cites.

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Climate change mitigation public policy research

Carbon mitigation governance strategies in Morocco, China, and Norway, Nefzi & Bouzidi, Discover Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s43621-026-04602-x

Framing the transition: How consultants shape public energy governance in Sweden, Reindl et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104959

Strategic pathways for decarbonization: a data-driven typology to strengthen climate policy, Bento et al., Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.33600992.v1

Tripartite evolutionary game analysis of emission reduction in EU road freight transport under ETD and ETS2 policies, Cai et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1921416

Varieties of decarbonization: Comparing state narratives of Germany, India, and Mexico, Zambianchi et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115598

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The impact of electricity market reform on renewable energy production, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114306 35 cites.

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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Assessing landslide probability changes under climate change scenarios as a basis for adaptation strategies, Chu et al., Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment 10.1007/s10064-026-05309-z

Compound and heterogeneous relationships between climate extremes and global net migration, Petrova et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-026-02752-4

Knowledge co-production and co-dissemination for climate change adaptation: insights based on Chokwe district, Mozambique, Jonas et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1935074

On race, racism and racialization: reflections on climate mobility, Baldwin, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2729553

The emergence of climate migration research as an academic field, Kohutova et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1825882

Weather extremes in migration dynamics: evidence from the Philippines, Innocenti & Randelli, Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-67411-2

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
What is limiting how we imagine climate change adaptation?, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101476 45 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human health

Balancing urban green space benefits and vector-borne disease risk under climate change: Critical decision-making for 21st century public health, Ferguson et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0001016

Impact of Climate Warming on All-Causes Mortality in China: The Role of Non-Optimal Temperature Exposure and Multi-Scenario Projections to 2050, He et al., GeoHealth Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gh001897

Intimate partner violence in sub-Saharan Africa under climate change and socioeconomic scenarios, Peisker et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103224

Patient knowledge and views on the health impacts of climate change in primary care: a cross-sectional survey study, Stewart et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1930073

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Spatio-temporal characteristics of Heat stress over Nigeria using evaluated ERA5-HEAT reanalysis data, Weather and Climate Extremes, 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100704 24 cites.

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Climate change impacts on human culture

Climate Change and Outdoor Sport in Chile: A Review of Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation, Carrasco, Weather Climate and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0217.1

Other

A strengthening yet less extreme Atlantic–European jet during winter, Brönnimann et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-026-02069-z

Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season: An Above-Normal Season despite Strong El Niño Conditions, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/bams-d-23-0305.1 15 cites.

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Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Disaster effects of climate change in High Mountain Asia: State of art and scientific challenges, Advances in Climate Change Research, 10.1016/j.accre.2024.06.003 75 cites.

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Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Indiana Renewables and the Residential Real Estate Market, Faulk et al., Purdue Extension Community Development and The Center for Business and Economic Research at Ball State University

This brief summarizes the findings of two larger reports examining how proximity to commercial wind turbines or large solar projects affect house values in Indiana. Using data from 2004 to 2024, the authors provide state-specific estimates to inform state and local officials and residents. They found no statistically significant negative effects on residential property values associated with proximity to large wind or utility-scale solar projects in Indiana.

Sustainability in Action 2026. The new rules of business resilience, Sweep and Cap Gemini

Climate disruption is costing companies now and the data cannot keep up. 94% of businesses report climate-related financial losses over the past two years, but 79% say their data is not sufficient to inform strategy. Fragmented data is the biggest thing standing between leaders and climate action Top barriers to sustainability data infrastructure, as reported by senior leaders: 34% limited system integration; 34% scaling across geographies; 31% incomplete Scope 3 or supplier data. These data may be behind, but the returns are already here. Share of leaders reporting measurable ROI today, by area: 43% from better procurement and supply chain efficiency; 52% from reduced regulatory and compliance costs; 41% from improved risk management.

Consumer Attitudes on Corporate Climate Action: Insights for Today’s Business Environment, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, Maslansky + Partners, and Potential Energy

The business landscape around climate action has shifted dramatically. But not in the ways heated policy debates might suggest. An in-depth analysis of consumer attitudes via a survey of 2,000 voters across the U.S. reflecting a representative range of political affiliations, ages, and incomes supports a different conclusion. It reveals something surprising for some: despite increased political polarization and a challenging regulatory environment, the business case for climate action has continued holding strong. What’s more, the authors suggest that corporate retreat from environmental commitments carries more reputational and financial risk than maintaining a clear, consistent stance. And perhaps most surprisingly, even those skeptical of climate policy remain open to the business case. Across party lines, strong majorities believe that climate action is smart business and would support companies that invest in clean energy and limit climate pollution.

What are the top social media platforms used by each of Global Warming’s Six Americas?, Ettinger et al., Yale University and George Mason University

In Fall 2025, as part of a biannual Climate Change in the American Mind survey, the authors asked a nationally representative sample of Americans (n = 1,146) how often they visit 14 different social media platforms. They were also asked how often they hear about global warming on social media. Across Global Warming’s Six Americas, the most commonly visited social media platforms are YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. The Alarmed hear about global warming on social media more often than other segments of the Six Americas.

California IOU Grid Capacity to Fully Serve Local Load with Distributed Solar+Storage Systems during Summer Peak/Net Peak Hours https://www.kevala.com/resources/grid-capacity-to-serve-local-load, Kevala, The Coalition for Community Solar Access

The authors estimate the amount and geographic concentration of large investor-owned utility (IOU) distribution-connected load in California that could be served by fully exporting front-of-the-meter distributed solar+storage resources, such as community solar+storage, or storage-only resources during summer peak and net peak demand hours without back-feeding onto the sub-transmission or transmission system. Specifically, the authors estimate the total load and corresponding number of 5-MW systems, each discharging at full capacity for 4 hours, that could be interconnected to the distribution grid and operated from 4 p.m. to 9 p.m. from June through September, with the discharged electricity being fully absorbed by local load behind each substation.

The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative: An Initiative of Eastern States of the United States, Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, Inc., Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, Inc

The participating states of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) released a report tracking the investment of proceeds generated from RGGI’s regional CO2 allowance auctions. The report tracks investments of RGGI proceeds in 2024 and summarizes how these investments promote ratepayer affordability, drive pollution reduction, and deliver additional benefits across the region. The RGGI states have individual discretion over how to invest proceeds according to state specific goals. Accordingly, states direct funds to a wide variety of programs, touching all aspects of the energy sector. In 2024, $856 million in RGGI proceeds were invested in programs including energy efficiency, clean and renewable energy, beneficial electrification, greenhouse gas abatement, and direct bill assistance. Over their lifetime, these 2024 investments are projected to provide participating households and businesses with $2.6 billion in energy bill savings and avoid the emission of 4.4 million short tons of CO2. The largest share of the investments was directed to energy efficiency, with 46% of the 2024 total. Other categories receiving significant investments include direct bill assistance, clean and renewable energy programs, beneficial electrification, and greenhouse gas abatement and climate adaptation programs.

Communicating about Climate and Clean Energy in an Age of Affordability, Andrea Everett, Heatmap and Embold Research

Each phase of research built on the previous one, starting with a large national survey to uncover the core values, priorities, and beliefs of three broad segments of the electorate with different views of climate change. These groups were labelled as Skeptics, Persuadables, and Persuadeds. For climate and clean energy communicators, the electorate is best understood as three distinct audiences. Persuadeds already believe in the 11 urgency of climate action and clean energy. What they lack is the conviction that their own actions matter, so the core tasks are to give them concrete, achievable things to do and to help them see that their efforts matter. Persuadables are open but unconvinced, and on the central issue of clean energy affordability they demand proof they can see close to home, rather than broad statistics or slogans. Skeptics, meanwhile, may be reachable through appeals to their values of personal freedom and energy independence, supplemented by evidence on cost and reliability, but with so few trusted messengers to make the case, clean energy remains a tough sell.

Ahead of the Deal: How the United States Can Build an Energy Project Pipeline in Emerging Markets, Katie Auth, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

The author argues that global U.S. electricity investment initiatives keep falling short for the same reason. Regardless of the divergent objectives and political rationales that drove each administration’s efforts, they all tried to mobilize private capital into energy projects using the same strategy: supporting individual deals at the very latest stages of project development. This works relatively well in mature economies, but not in the many emerging markets where few projects ever reach that point. The approach simply does not fit the reality of what is needed in the energy sectors of most emerging markets today. And it has left the primary implementer of U.S. development finance, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), with too few good projects in which to put its capital. To build a diversified pipeline of high-quality energy projects that feeds the DFC’s portfolio for years to come, achieves U.S. strategic goals, and expands commercial opportunities for American firms and technologies, U.S. development finance must pivot in three key ways including incentivize strategic, early-stage risk, delegate origination to external partners, and focus assistance on grid systems and procurement.

West-wide Transmission Study: 10-Year Horizon Report, Western Transmission Expansion Coalition

The 10-year Horizon Study offers a holistic, integrated evaluation of Western interregional transmission needs, with a focus on identifying transmission gaps and filling them with actionable projects. In performing the assessment, drivers of the growing need for transmission over the approaching 10 years became clear. Western Transmission Expansion Coalition's (WestTEC) forecasts show Western peak electric demand increasing by 30% in the next decade. This increase is more than three times greater than what the West experienced over the last decade. Nameplate generation capacity is anticipated to increase by 76% in the next decade, more than twice the historical rate. Plans to procure intermittent resources by several Western entities will increase reliance on transmission to manage supply variability. By 2035 the Western grid will increasingly depend on the geographic diversity of load and generation to maintain reliability, which drives high-volume power flows across and between regions. Extreme events requiring transfers between entities occur during summer and winter peaks, cold snaps, and periods of high generation output. This highlights how diversity strengthens the system but requires transmission capacity to do so.

The Cost of Heat: Managing Pennsylvania’s Thermal Transition, Kristin George Bagdanov and Kevin Carbonnier, Building Decarbonization Coalition

The authors call for a managed gas transition: a coordinated, regulator-led strategy to limit unnecessary gas investment, retire portions of the gas system where cost-effective alternatives exist, and protect customers and workers during the shift to cleaner heating and cooling. This managed gas transition is one part of a broader thermal transition: the long-term shift toward cleaner, more affordable, and better-coordinated systems for delivering heat. The analysis that follows traces how Act 11 accelerated gas system spending, how those costs affect customer bills, and why neighborhood.

The Impact of Climate and Environmental Change on Brain Health, Ikiz et al., International Neuro Climate Working Group

The authors synthesize the current scientific evidence on how climate related environmental exposures affect neurological health, mental health, cognition, neurodevelopment, and healthy brain aging. In addition to presenting the Neuro Climate Framework, the authors identify priority directions for future research through the Neuro Climate Research Agenda and outlines stakeholder-specific recommendations through the Neuro Climate Action Roadmap, providing practical guidance for researchers, policymakers, healthcare professionals, educators, communities, individuals, and international organizations.

2026 NYC Heat-Related Mortality Report, Bureau of Environmental Surveillance and Policy, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene

Heat contributes to the deaths of approximately 500 New Yorkers, on average, each year during the warm season of May through September. Inequities by race and income persist in the people and neighborhoods most impacted. Deaths across all races, however, were more common at home, underscoring the importance of access to and affordability of home cooling to prevent death. The authors report estimated trends in heat-exacerbated deaths for the current and past several decades (1974-2023) in 10-year rolling time windows to provide more stable estimates than previous 5-year aggregation and align with the 10-year period used to describe the temperature-risk relationship in the report. For heat-stress deaths, counts and the annual average for the past ten years (2016-2025) are reported.

Disaster Risk: Improvements Needed to Enhance FEMA’s National Risk Index, Currie et al., United States Government Accountability Office

The authors found that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) partially followed leading practices for risk assessment and information quality during the development, operation, and maintenance of the National Risk Index (NRI). The authors made three recommendations, including that FEMA provide information to users on how to apply NRI results effectively and systematically solicit, collect, and incorporate user feedback to inform NRI improvements.

Winter 2026 Arctic Events: A System Performance Review, Clark et al., Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and North American Electric Reliability Corporation

This system performance review focuses on understanding what occurred during the Winter 2026 Arctic Cold Period. The authors also highlight cold weather preparation improvements made prior to the Winter 2026 Arctic Cold Period that supported reliable operation of the Bulk-Power System during the period. The authors engaged with numerous electric and natural gas entities across the eastern half of the United States3 and Texas to gather the information necessary to provide an overview of the performance of the Bulk-Power System and natural gas system during the Winter 2026 Arctic Cold Period. The authors' analysis shows that the Winter 2026 Arctic Cold Period was fundamentally an endurance challenge (sustained reliable operation during extended periods of system stress) that stretched electric and natural gas systems for several days, revealing how extended cold snaps amplify risks across generator performance, fuel supply chains, load forecasting, interregional energy transfers, and system operators. Electric entities reported multi-day reliability challenges driven by equipment cold weather limitations, deferred maintenance, and constrained fuel availability, while natural gas systems faced infrastructure constraints, production obstacles, and logistical barriers that affected upstream deliveries and non-fuel consumables.

Wetlands for Climate Partnership Report (California), Pietri et al., The Nature Conservancy et al

California has lost more than 90% of its historic wetlands, prompting major state investments through initiatives such as AB 1757, CARB’s Scoping Plan, Pathways to 30x30, and Proposition 4. Drawing on workshops, agency discussions, and practitioner engagement conducted from 2024 to 2026, the authors present current progress, persistent barriers, and key opportunities to accelerate wetland restoration and management needed to achieve California’s climate, resilience, and biodiversity goals.

Spending and Safety Outcomes in U.S. Gas Distribution Systems: An Assessment of DIMP & PHMSA’s Call to Action, Seavey et al., The Future of Heat Initiative

Over the past 15 years, two federal initiatives — the Gas Distribution Integrity Management Program rule and Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration's Call to Action — have fundamentally reshaped how U.S. gas utilities invest in safety, one by promoting integrity management and the other by encouraging accelerated replacement of certain pipelines. The authors presents the first comprehensive evaluation of these initiatives. They found that utility safety spending has been significantly misallocated: since 2011, capital spending is up 200% and customer delivery charges have nearly doubled, yet measured safety outcomes have not improved commensurately. The analysis traces this divergence to regulatory frameworks that often fail to ensure that capital investments are guided by rigorous risk assessment and systematic evaluation of alternative risk-mitigation strategies. The authors urge state and federal regulators, utilities, and other interested parties to take action to improve outcomes for the public.

A fossil-free Australia: An ambitious Paris-aligned phase-out of coal, gas and oil from the national energy system, Houlie et al., Climate Analytics

The authors show that Australia can meet its climate goals and reach net zero emissions by phasing out fossil fuels. The authors modelled a new Fossil Fuel Phase-out (FFPO) scenario, a Paris-aligned pathway for Australia informed by the latest global evidence. This scenarios' results are then compared to the Australian government's current policies - the Current Policy Projections (CPP) scenario. A fossil fuel phase-out for Australia to meet its climate commitments and to play its role in global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C is urgent. The authors show this is possible in all sectors, present policies the government needs to adopt, and highlight what the government is not doing - or needs to be doing more of. The government needs to start this phase-out now.

Global Snapshot of Climate-related School Disruptions in 2025, Ji et al., United Nations Children's Fund

Globally, at least 171 million students – from pre-primary to upper secondary education – experienced school disruptions due to climate events in 2025. Climate-related school disruptions in 2025 could cost affected students at least US$200 billion in lifetime earnings through lost learning and widening education inequities. At least 1 in 10 students had their schooling disrupted due to climate-related hazards in 2025. 75 per cent of the 171 million affected students are in low- and lower middle-income countries. Schools in 106 countries or territories were affected by climate hazards, with 40 countries experiencing multiple instances of school disruptions.

Methane Made in America, University of California, Los Angeles, School of Law

The authors provide a user-friendly ranking of the Top 10 oil and gas sites in three basins, Appalachia, Permian, and Haynesville, as seen by one of the most sophisticated methane-detection satellites in the world. The authors define the Top 10 sites as those with the highest average methane emission rate observed from January 1,?2025, to June 1,?2026, by the Tanager-1 satellite, excluding sources with two or fewer detected plumes. Where possible, the authors also identify the “potentially responsible operator” of each site and give information on the site’s public health effects.

Ratepayer Impacts of Arizona Public Service’s Gas Resources, McGarvey et al., Sierra Club and Synapse Energy Economics

Natural gas purchases to fuel Arizona Public Service (APS) power plants currently account for 5% of residential bills. Gas prices can be affected by external factors including global geopolitical events and domestic extreme weather events. Therefore, APS’s reliance on gas resources exposes ratepayers to fuel price volatility risk. Gas price spikes could increase average residential customer bills by over $9 per month. Data centers are driving up electricity demand in Arizona. Since its 2023 Integrated Resource Plan, APS has increased its' planned additions for 2030 by 4.6 GW to meet increased demand. APS is responding by increasing its' reliance on gas. APS plans to increase nameplate capacity of natural gas from 5.1 GW in 2023 to 7.8 GW in 2030, a 48% increase. Gas could make up 32% of the company's generation mix, compared to 19% in 2023. This will lock customers into increased bills for many years and increase ratepayer exposure to gas price risks.

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