It's spring statement day – a bigger day than the Treasury probably ever wanted it to be – but definitely not a budget. With Chancellor Rachel Reeves on course to break her own fiscal rules, she'll lay out how she intends to find billions of pounds of extra savings. At the eleventh hour, it looks like welfare cuts will be tougher than first thought – with a hit on Universal Credit. Sam and Anne outline what the calculations are likely to be and how the chancellor will handle the day. And beyond today – if there's no glimmer of growth by the end of the year, how would she approach the autumn budget? Could that be where raising taxes is the only option?