Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   12*
TOTAL HURRICANES:         4
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3
* (11 TROPICAL…1 SUBTROPICAL)

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

EATL TROPICAL WAVE
I continue to monitor the Tropical Wave over the EATL.  Based on visible satellite loop imagery, the center of the wave appeared to be approximately near 9.1N;33.3W this morning.
EATL TROPICAL WAVE


RECENT ASCAT PASS

There has been some increase in convection, and analysis of visible satellite loop imagery, it appears the wave has become better organized in overall structure. The East Atlantic wind shear map from CIMSS was not available at the time of analysis, however the North Atlantic product displayed enough of the area just west of the wave, and there has been a reduction in shear.  This would explain the better satellite presentation.

Based on analysis of global models, the models indicate minimally favorable to moderately favorable precipitable water values and 700 – 500 mb relative humidity values to remain with the wave during the next 120 hours on the forecast period.  Wind shear is forecast to fluctuate and a minimal divergent pattern is forecast for the same time frame.  Once this supposedly enters into the Caribbean by that time, and possibly continues into the central and western Caribbean, by hour 144 – 192 in the forecast period, models indicate higher values of precipitable water and mid level relative humidity to develop, along with shear dissipating and development of a radial shear pattern, and better established upper divergent pattern (outflow).  As the wave enters the Caribbean, it appears as if it may merge with the CAG (Central American Gyre).  Based on this, conditions should be somewhat favorable for further, fairly slow development of this wave.  IF the wave makes it into the W. Caribbean and forecast conditions come to fruition, the system could develop at a much steadier pace.  At the moment, models are still split on future development and intensity.  So, this is going to be another one of those wait and see situations.
ECMWF, GFS AND CMC MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST



Forecast path should still be considered somewhat low confidence, although ensembles and formation guidance have still been consistent on a consensus of bringing this into the Caribbean.  Analysis of the current forecast steering layers maps showing the orientation of the forecast ridge and trough pattern, and strength of the forecast sub-tropical ridge, this scenario at the current time seems probable.  I really won’t have a more accurate track forecast until if and when the wave develops a well defined closed low level circulation (LLC).  However, based on the consistency over the past 4 days, I recommend residents of the Leeward and Windward Islands monitor this situation closely.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY



I will continue to monitor this situation closely during the next 96 – 120 hours

Elsewhere, ensemble models still indicate and have been consistent in the longer range showing an increased probability for tropical activity in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf  by day 10 – 12 in the forecast period.  This should be considered low confidence at this time, however they have been consistent now for 4 – 5 days and the MJO forecast still indicates we should be in the favorable phases for development.  The ECMWF MJO forecast indicates we should be entering PHASE 2 soon, so some type of increase in activity cannot be ruled out at the moment.
ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone formation is not expected for the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS