Doesn't that pic just scream TD!!

And NHC upgraded before recon ...

And we have a Cone!

Some quick comments here as I will update the blog later today after Recon gets in there and we have direct data. After that more so when that data is put into the next run of models with the data from the recon put into the models. Either way, TD2 forecast by NHC to be TS Bertha will lollygag around in the Gulf close in before finally making her move. I'll add to that never trust the first Cone to know for sure where it will go. As it is close in and it's a large as they say "sprawling" system impacts will be felt far from the exact center of the cone. 

Short Term: It should stay in the same location, sort of anchored a bit while it tries to build on it's great bones. It is lacking on moisture currently and while storms flare up it needs to hold onto that moisture some... to become Big Bad Bertha! 

Long Term: IF current models verify it gets pushed West by the expanding High Pressure to it's East and models currently favor the Go West Girl paths vs up into FL and Georgia. Again we need better info or as we used to say Down South ... More Better Info.

It's quite noticeable to anyone looking at the Water Vapor Loop that dry air (that dark Navy Blue) to it's NNE sliding into it's center. It's also easy to see how large this system is and it has maintained this large for the last few days. Also it has this "need to spin" and that is inherent in the formulative factors involved here. When you have an ULL that mixes it up with other features it is more likely to spin first than the opposite way while watching a very large, wet African Wave lumber across the Atlantic in search of spin that generally happens down the road. While there are always those Prime Time African Waves that come off with Low Pressure from day one. They are few and far between and more so will be this year. 

So let's let her spin. Let's let the NHC do their thing and drop dropsondes into her and then review the data. And for the rest of us we can defitnitely enjoy the aesthetics of how "pretty" she looks. Big yes, but look at her spin!  More to say later. 

The link to the excellent discussion from the NHC is below. 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/191452.shtml?

Also remember that this should move slowly and as it's large and is prone to sudden flare ups of convective energy areas nearby close to the storm over land may fefel it's impact even while it's far offshore. 

Does it go to Nola?

Maybe Mississippi then slide into Louisiana.

It Texas in "to do list" for travel?

Stay tuned.

Stay aware.

IF it can mix out the dry air...

..with that incredible spiral...

well it could intensify faster than expected.

NHC has it at 60 MPH