TD9 Cone.... 11 PM

Good Discussion tonight.
Like my thoughts but written much better.
Meteorological lingo, well done.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/272044.shtml  It's got a broad "circulation" and it's not well formed, meandering down by Cuba/Haiti taking it's time to venture up into the Bahamas and in truth by taking it's time it sets up a probable track of slowly to the North through the Georgia Bight and a sharper turn to the East.  Of course this forecast relies on no big changes with the Upper Level Low, the trough, the Cat 5 Hurricane and any other wrench you'd like to throw in there. 

The Carolinas are expecting rain, and Georgia of course ...mostly by the coast. And, I'll be really honest the nearness of a sloppy system like TD9 will up the ante for rain in some places in Florida close to it's forecast path offshore on it's way North. But as TD9 has never done anything that was forecast exactly, I'd expect surprises. And so stay prepared if your area is prone to flooding, if power goes out in your area easily keep at eye on it's actual movement vs it's forecast track or what you may have heard from TicToc or Aunt Martha. Some good people on TicToc but somehow the weather psychics always get more clicks that the boring reliable forecasters.  Remember Florida was not wiped off the map from a Cat 6 Hurricane last season or the season before that... take all discussion not from the NHC with lots of sea salt!

11 PM

Meandering and drifting slowly.

I can feel their pain really ...

...not an easy storm to forecast.

Or write discussion for...

Spaghetti Models below

NHC Cone

11 PM Humberto

Below was written at 10 PM.

I added in the 11 PM info as promised.

Thanks for reading and honestly was therapeutic!

****** thanks for reading along *******

Going to write a bit tonight while waiting to see what the NHC will do at 11 PM and I'll add that back in at the top when the advisory and Cone is out. I'm not surprised Humberto is a Cat 5 with 160 MPH winds. I haven't wanted to talk much on him as there's not much to say. It's one of those storms I felt they upgraded too fast (it definitely shut everyone up with statistics on how long we had gone without a named storm tho...) and it was vaguely irrelevant in it's early shape and form, yet I knew it would be a Cat 5 one day. I could see it spinning beautifully out at sea, though I did think it'd be a bit further to the North. Being a Miami girl living in the Carolinas I am going to deal with a storm that could rock someone's world closer in than talk on a Fish Storm slowly getting it's act together.

TD9 trying ....   Cat 5 Humberto.
TD9 caught up in the trough...
Elongated mess but it's coming together.

I think.....

Note with regard to TD9 we have another storm taking seemingly forever to get it's act together looking as a friend of mine used to say "butt ugly" draped from Cuba to the North Coast of Haiti, part of in the water, convection going off in all directions and not much of a there ...there. And, yet it can get up into the Bahamas and they did need watches. I said on Friady when I was going off late in the day, it's not an easy job the NHC does especially with so many intangibles between two storms and many layers of models modeling and the new AI models putting their $50 in...   and then they check the EURO. Then 24 hours later I go online and it has barely moved and still looks rather poor for a Tropical Depression.

When we first began watching this wave and waiting for the NHC to elevate it to Invest status, someone on TWC mentioned storms the same time of year with possible problems close in to the Carolinas and I was only half watching and heard him give a few as I'd turned the sound up to hear Hurricane History and then he said something about "there was a crazy tracker ...." and I thought "Oh don't say Ginger" and YES he put up Ginger's track. And, it was that moment I knew..... I KNEW.....there was a possible chance that this storm once formed could take us all on a wild ride, potentially anyway. Many tracks were put up, but no one mentions Ginger unless they think it's possible it gets pulled out by the larger, stronger Humberto and if Humberto doesn't absorb it for lunch... and can break free it can go back to the left again looking for a landfall.  

From the start this looked to me like a slow forming storm, slow moving at first as it crawls its way out of the Caribbean and then as it approaches the Carolinas and I saw in my head a storm looping or stalling especially with weak steering currents (not stellar) and a hurricane that would be a Major somewhere in the same vicinity out to the East. And again I was thinking that before he pulled the Ginger track out of and shared it on air. 1971 had some annoying storms, Ginger the most famous. And, yet in the end.....Ginger made landfall in North Carolina though I don't know many details though I know the track. I have books... nice books, presents :) and many I bought and many copies made on the incredible color printer at the library where I ran the Reference Desk :) in books taken from the computer. Online I look through old storm tracks and read incredible hurricane history that people used to actually have to get special permission to go in special libraries to read hard copies of.... vs staying up all night reading journals people kept meticulously recording for history every detail of damage on Front Street in Beaumont or how the trees were ripped out of the ground without the roots vs with the roots in Winstom Salem NC. 

Too many intangibles but more so there is a general rule we go by with tropical meteorology and I find it hard to understand how it was ignored because flashy models and even flashier AI models showed lots of possibilities and ignored the fact that Humberto was going to be a Cat 5 Major Hurricane in the same part of the Atlantic Ocean as what would be Invest 94L trying to get around Hispaniola, yet losing her heart to Hispaniola, and then wanting to check out Cuba like an ADD traveler with all the time in the world to kill extening her trip a little bit longer while all of the SE coastline of the USA is watching her slow movement screaming at their computer "are you ever going to leave Hispaniola" and when she did they screamed "are you ever going to leave Cuba" adding "are you ever going to form"   . . . Purposely a long run on sentence because tracking what should be Imelda one day has felt like living out a long, run on sentence.

The angst has been real between the kids wanting ACE in the Atlantic hoping Humberto would provide that and people living on coastal beach towns on the East Coast from Miami to OBX wondering if this was going to pull a rabbit out of the hat and cause trouble with a capital T.

Others just wrote it off as a "junk storm" and it'll go out to sea. And, yes it might go out to sea.....and it might come back with a loop or a landfall. Weird things happen at certain latitudes with fronts on the move slowly and the seasons haven't really totally flipped the switch yet and Fall lends itself to loopers.

If you remember I have said on X and here that in that time period where Indian Summer comes to stay way past it's original travel plans the door is open for tropical trouble, whereas a week or two ago we had fronts so strong they were a littler forcefield protecting the East Coast from West Indies Tropical Cyclones.

Bottom Line.

You cannot have Humberto with that much energy and another storm, trying to form get going into a wild wind machine with Humberto so close; it would be a rare trick and while anything can happen it needs to have some breathing room. And lastly, it's stuck in some wave complex (phrase of 2025) and until it breaks free, wraps up tight and begins spinning (probably over the Gulfstream) you can't ignore it and know anything could go with this storm.

See how TD9 is part of the trough already.

Humberto moving way too much to the left.

Giving me Florence "heebie jeebies"

My Grandma Mary used to say that....often.

Local Mets in NC who are want to speak their mind have been saying it'll slow or stall near the coast but most likely going out to sea. Models tho live in an alternative universe (literally) and they keep spinning out possible scenarios and you can go crazy chasing models. Local Mets have a good feel for what usually happens in their area with weather history, while always leaving the door open for sudden changes. 

So we watch and wait and the NHC will pivot accordingly IF something big changes. 

One hell of an eye on Humberto!

TD9 below.........................

This song below is for the Spaghetti Models

for TD9

There's always that one model...

...that wants to go it's own way.

The song came to mind......