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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
STORM WALSH PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES : 7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4 – 5
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
2021 SEASON TOTALS:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 6
TOTAL HURRICANES: 1
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0
TOTAL U. S. LANDFALLS: 3
The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana Bill Claudette Danny Elsa Fred Grace Henri Ida Julian Kate Larry
Mindy Nicholas Odette Peter Rose Sam Teresa Victor Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.
Please note..when we are dealing with multiple systems, they will be listed in order as to the greatest threat to land or the U. S. , to the least threat.
Good evening everyone,
Tropical Depression FRED had taken a jog more toward the west during the day, and is currently moving toward the west, a little further inland over Cuba than was planned. In my analysis of satellite loop imagery this evening, the center was extremely difficult to see, however it appears to seem a little more disorganized and somewhat elongated. Convection is seen flaring up, however this may be due to oragraphic lift over the mountains of Cuba.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE ANIMATION IMAGES
VISIBLE ANIMATION
NOAA GOES 16 CLOUD TOP
Activity continues to pick up as seen in the Atlantic full view loop, and African satellite loop imagery
WEATHERNERDS ATLANTIC ANIMATION
AFRICA SATELLITE
As of the 8:00 p.m. EDT intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following was available on FRED.
8:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 13
Location: 22.5°N 80.2°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb / 29.91 in
Max sustained: 35 mph
ABOUT 45 MI…70 KM W OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 175 MI…285 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
FRED is moving west, and based on analysis of the current layer mean steering, and analysis of the forecast steering flow, I expect this motion to continue during tonight, and then FRED SHOULD turn toward the WNW. NHC mentions he should make the turn this evening, however based on the satellite motion of the disorganized center, the westward motion was noted as of current. It is possible for the forecast track to nudge slightly west, and given the disruption of the center more than thought, I cannot rule out a center reformation once FRED exits back into the water. However, model guidance seems much better clustered, and save any center reformation, or unseen change in the forecast steering, I agree pretty much with the NHC forecast track.
NHC TRACKING MAP
NHC TRACKING MAP (LINKED TO THE NHC INTERACTIVE MAP…CLICK MAP)
00Z ATCF GUIDANCE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE
Maximum sustained winds were still reported at 35 mph. Analysis of the most recent wind shear map from CIMSS indicated FRED was still under 20 kts of westerly shear. Based on analysis of forecast wind shear maps, wind shear is forecast to remain, during the next 24 – 30 hours. Upon FRED exiting toward the GOMEX, the shear forecast calls for wind shear to begin relaxing, and as time goes out in the period, the upper level could become favorable for a short time, until shear once again begins to increase between 48 – 60 hours, based on which global model is correct. Based on analysis of this factor, and how long it may take FRED to recover after exiting Cuba, intensification rate and level remain somewhat uncertain. Based on this, I agree with the NHC intensity forecast at this time. Of note, the HMON hurricane model brings FRED to CAT 1 status right before landfall. As of now, I don’t see this occurring, unless upper level conditions improve more than forecast, and FRED recovers very quickly.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 13/2100Z 22.3N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
12H 14/0600Z 23.0N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
24H 14/1800Z 24.2N 82.6W 35 KT 40 MPH…OVER WATER
36H 15/0600Z 25.4N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 27.0N 84.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 28.8N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 30.2N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 33.5N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
120H 18/1800Z 37.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
Tropical Storm watches and warnings are still in effect, and the following information is from the NHC advisories:
NWS LOCAL PRODUCTS FOR FRED (CLICK LINK)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls1+shtml/122126.shtml?
The following are the current forecast precipitation totals for the U.S. from the WPC.
NCEP WPC TOTAL 7 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST
The following map will allow to to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
Tropical Depression SEVEN appeared better organized at the time of my analysis of the satellite animation earlier. Based on satellite motion, and current steering, T. .D SEVEN was moving toward the west. In fact, the current forward motion is rather quick.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN SATELLITE ANIMATION FROM WEATHERNERDS
Analysis of water vapor imagery indicated the depression is surrounded by mid level dry air, however dry air intrusion, if any, appeared to be very minimal. In fact, the moisture forecast based on RH values in the mid levels indicates improving conditions for both tropical systems.
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION
As of the 8:00 p.m. EDT intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following was available on T.D. SEVEN:
8:00 PM AST Fri Aug 13
Location: 15.6°N 53.1°W
Moving: W at 22 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83 in
Max sustained: 35 mph
ABOUT 580 MI…935 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
Based on the current steering layer mean, and analysis of the forecast steering flow, the depression should continue toward the W for approximately another 24 hours, prior to taking more of a WNW track. Based on the 18Z track guidance, which was fairly clustered at the time, T. D. SEVEN could take a track somewhat similar to FRED. However beginning at around 72 hours in the forecast period, the guidance becomes more spread. Based on this analysis, and based on the amount of land interaction with Hispaniola, I have to agree with the current NHC forecast track.
NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP
NHC TRACKING MAP (LINKED TO THE NHC INTERACTIVE MAP…CLICK MAP)
00Z ATCF GUIDANCE
Maximum sustained winds were reported at 35 mph. Analysis of the most recent wind shear map from CIMSS indicated the depression was under 10 – 15 kts of shear. During the next 48 hours, analysis of the 200 mb streamline forecast shows the system coming under the axis of an upper level ridge, and this should allow for shear to remain low. Analysis of the wind shear forecast and current SHIPS diagnostic report indicates wind shear is forecast to increase in about 78 hours or so as the system nears Hispaniola. Based on the forward speed and the forecast of shear. IF the system can slow down, and the shear forecast materializes, I believe T.D. SEVEN could strengthen at a slightly better rate. Until this occurs however, I agree with the NHC intensity forecast
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 13/2100Z 15.4N 51.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 15.9N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.4N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 17.0N 61.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 17.7N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 18.4N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 19.0N 70.3W 40 KT 45 MPH…OVER HISPANIOLA
96H 17/1800Z 20.9N 74.7W 35 KT 40 MPH…OVER WATER
120H 18/1800Z 23.6N 79.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
Tropical Storm watches and warnings are in effect, and the following information is from the NHC advisories:
NWS SAN JUAN, PUERTO RICO LINK
https://www.weather.gov/sju/
CARIBBEAN RADAR IMAGES (LINK)
https://www.barbadosweather.org/Composite/kidbuuComposite_Lionel_displayer2.php?Product=Reflectivity&Sector=fullView&Composite=Sabre&ANISP=700&MAPP=1&PlanetOfTheApes=11254
ECMWF AND GFS 5 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST
I will continue to monitor FRED and T. D. SEVEN for any significant changes to the forecast atmospheric parameters, and intend to update again tomorrow evening. I will not be updating Saturday, as I have plenty of personal business to attend to.
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS