Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
I know some of my forecasts are LONG, however if you them in their entirety, you’ll have the full lowdown.  This one is rather lengthy with a lot of graphics.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   8
TOTAL HURRICANES:         3
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

This forecast is graphic intense and rather lengthy.   However the information will give you a much better picture of what we are dealing with, not only as residents that may be affected, but as forecasters as well.
Just for your info, Hurricane HUMBERTO has just become the 3rd major hurricane of the season with sustained winds of 145 mph.  The forecast indicates he may hold steady, but one final intensity increase is possible and HUMBERTO could briefly become the second CAT 5 hurricane of the season.

For the next 3 – 4 days, T. D. 9 will take forecast precedence, since HUMBERTO poses no U.S. threat.

I did see there has been a change in track regarding PTC 9, and I know this is a headache forecast and a pain in the butt as far as knowing exactly what conditions to expect, which may be stressful to those within the cone.  Does this mean I blew the forecast?  Not at all.  Small changes that occur in the atmosphere at one location, can mean big changes further away.  Remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion, and changes occur all the time.  However, model runs come out every 6 hours, and a lot can change in between the 5 hours of not having updated information.

NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/271450.shtml?
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/271449.shtml

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings have been issued for the Bahamas and a portion of the Florida East Coast:

NHC AND HURRTRACK GRAPHICS



P-SURGE MAP (LINKED FOR INTERACYIVE USE)





RIP CURRENTS


Tropical Depression 9 was currently moving to the NW.  Based on analysis of forecast steering, track guidance has changed fairly quickly, along with global and hurricane models forecasts.  I will be posting each model animation, so you may see what we are dealing with, especially as forecasters.  Quite a change from yesterdays animations.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z ATCF GUIDANCE

HURRICANE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE

GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODEL ANIMATIONS







This seems at the moment to be the scenario for the forecast track.  Based on analysis, since the depression is creeping along (and this was mentioned in yesterdays forecast), the slower motion now appears to allow HUMBERTO to come close enough to have an effect on steering.  In combination with this, once Tropical Depression 9 (future IMELDA) gets closer to the SEUS, a deep trough form the Canadian Maritimes is forecast to move south, and become positioned over the SEUS.  This, in combination with HUMBERTO adding to the weakness, should allow for the eastward turn as shown in the forecast map from the NHC, and the tracks shown in the animations.  However, as just witnessed, this is not written in stone, but now seems to be the most likely scenario based on analysis of the available forecast information.
ECMWF 300 MB FORECAST MAP SHOWING TROUGH

NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP



Tropical Depression 9 was still under the effect of moderate wind shear,  however the streamlines tend to indicate the radial shear pattern which is being forecast my be slowly trying to develop.
RECENT WIND SHEAR

Analysis of global models indicates wind shear to relax in about 24 hours, with the ECMWF indicating a favorable radial shear pattern to develop, and remaining with the system through approximately 48 hours. Thereafter, the forecast indicates an increase in wind shear.  The model also indicates development of a diffluent upper pattern.  The system will be located to the east of an upper level trough, and will be located within the Right Rear Entrance region of a 200 mb jetstreak, which will have a favorable effect for strengthening.  Indications are that precipitable water values remain favorable during the time mentioned with a steady increase.  Mid level relative humidity will be favorable for a brief time in the forecast period, and then it looks as if the system will have to deal with drier air to its south quadrant.  Long range intensity will all depend on the exact track taken, and degree of land interaction.  Central pressure continues to slowly drop, which would indicate some slow strengthening may be starting.  I expect a more steady intensification rate once the system reaches the central Bahamas.  Based on my analysis, I currently agree with the NHC intensity forecast, and PTC 9 could become a CAT 1 hurricane.  IF the system encounters a more favorable mid level moisture scenario, I believe the system could be a little stronger IF a more favorable environment materializes.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

From the National Hurricane Center:

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS