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Based on current steering, the depression is currently in between 2 high pressure ridges, which is causing steering currents to remain weak, hence the slow forward motion. Based on analysis of forecast steering currents, the setup calls for the subtropical ridge to pretty much remain in place with only a little shifting between west and east. The ridge to the depressions west is forecast to slowly move toward the W and NW during the next 72 hours. This will allow for a weakness to develop, which the depression should slowly move through. Based on this, I tend to agree with the NHC forecast track and prefer the current HFWI Hurricane Weather Research model
NHC FORECAST TRACKING MAP

RAL 18Z T. D. 2 TRACK GUIDANCE

I feel again the NHC designated this a little too early, as the criteria were not met as far as the consistency of deep convection time period. With that said maximum sustained winds were 30 mph. Based on analysis of the most current conditions, wind shear was out of the NE, however intensity was only around 15 kts. Upper level winds were still indicating an upper level low over the system. I did some research today prior to this, and found that given the sufficient moisture, it helps maintain a surface low, and the shear is light enough not to tilt the system, allowing to remain vertically stacked. Given the lack of divergence however, this is why we are currently seeing slow development.
CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR

CURRENT UPPER LEVEL WIND MAP

Based on my analysis of forecast wind shear, 200 mb streamlines as well as surface moisture (PWAT) and mid level relative humidity values, PWAT is forecast to increase slightly to very favorable levels, with mid level RH remaining favorable during the next 36 – 48 hours. A brief radial shear pattern is forecast later tonight, then switches back to a more zonal flow. However in approximately 18 – 24 hours as the system continues NWWD, a radial shear pattern re-develops over the depression, and an increase in upper divergence is noted.
ECMWF WIND SHEAR AND 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST


This could allow for a Tropical Storm to develop. Based on the model, it shows shear increasing by 48 hours in the period. I cannot rule out the probability at the moment of a Tropical Storm, however at this time, until I see updated forecast conditions tomorrow, it could be weaker than what the NHC indicates.
NHC FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 27.5N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 27.9N 85.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 28.2N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 28.5N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 28.9N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 29.2N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 29.4N 88.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 29.2N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 29.3N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND