I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

I have a medical appointment tomorrow morning. I will try to have an update tomorrow afternoon.

The following changes are being made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Regarding the issuance of Tropical Weather Outlooks or Tropical Storm / Hurricane forecasts versus Severe Weather forecasts, IF Cyclone Formation Probability models become consistent in probability indicating possible development, or a probability is shown in the NHC GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) or a tropical system becomes a threat to the Caribbean islands, Mexico or any portion of the U.S. or becomes a constant entity in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf during any forecast of severe weather, the tropical weather forecast will take precedence.  These may be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias 
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky 
Wilfred

The NHC is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression number 2
NHC 7 DAY GTWO  (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The following is Tropical Depression TWO satellite loop imagery:
T. D. 2 IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY

As of the 5:00 p.m. EDT (4:00 p.m. CDT) advisory from the NHC, the following was available on T. D. 2:
5:00 PM EDT Mon Jul 20
Location: 28.7°N; 85.8°W
Moving: NW 3 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb / 29.68 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Ochlockonee River Florida westward to the Jefferson/Plaquemines
Parish border in Louisiana.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or on
Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/202048.shtml?

ADVISO PUBLICO
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT2+shtml/202049.shtml?

NHC LOCAL PRODUCTS FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls_at2+shtml/202101.shtml?

KEY MESSAGES (LINKED)

Based on current steering, the depression is currently in between 2 high pressure ridges, which is causing steering currents to remain weak, hence the slow forward motion. Based on analysis of forecast steering currents, the setup calls for the subtropical ridge to pretty much remain in place with only a little shifting between west and east. The ridge to the depressions west is forecast to slowly move toward the W during the next 48 hours. This will allow for a weakness to develop, which the depression should slowly move through. Based on this, I tend to agree with the NHC forecast track and prefer the current HFWI Hurricane Weather Research model
NHC FORECAST TRACKING MAP

RAL 18Z T. D. 2 TRACK GUIDANCE (CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE)

CURRENT STEERING LAYER MEAN

The system was under NELY wind shear, which has tilted the circulation / convection, with the convection in my initial stage of analysis approximately 35nm SW of the LLC. In other words, the center is exposed. With that said maximum sustained winds were 35 mph. Based on analysis of the most current conditions, wind shear was out of the NE, at an intensity of around 25 kts. Upper level winds now indicate the upper level low is no longer over the depression, with flow becoming more zonal, however with some slight divergence extending southward from near the LLC. Closeup analysis of visible satellite loop imagery indicated the depression was taking in some slightly drier air, by evidence or “arc” clouds around the LLC earlier, however recent water vapor loop imagery suggests moisture has increased slightly.
CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR

CURRENT UPPER LEVEL WIND MAP

Based on my analysis of forecast wind shear, 200 mb streamlines as well as surface moisture (PWAT) and mid level relative humidity values, PWAT is still forecast by all the global models to increase slightly to, very favorable levels, with mid level RH remaining favorable beginning tonight into tomorrow. A very brief radial shear pattern is forecast later tonight, into tomorrow, with partial, minimal divergence at the 200 mb level. It is a little perplexing at the moment, as to whether or not these conditions actually occur, and if the brevity will be enough to allow the depression to truly become well organized enough to attain Tropical Storm status. Based on this evenings analysis of visible imagery, it appears the LLC has shifted a little closer to the convection. This could be a sign that shear may be decreasing slightly as shown in the forecast by the global models. IF it the forecast track shifts closer to the coast, conditions will be a little more hostile, and the combination of land interaction could end any intensification chance. Should the center remain more over the water, the slim probability of a Tropical Storm exists, if it meets the criteria set forth by the NHC / NWS. Based on analysis of current lower convergence and upper divergence maps, the possibility may exists that we see a center reformation or relocation occur, which would place the LLC underneath the deep convection. Right now, I’m a little skeptical in this intensifying quickly given it’s current disorganization, and forecast for wind shear to increase to non favorable in less than 24 hours. It was noted however, that the majority of intensity guidance models seem to agree with the NHC. Unless I’m missing something, the forecast conditions from the global models tells a little different story. Again, I will reiterate, I can only give you a forecast based on what I am analyzing in the models. Should this attain Tropical Storm status, I still believe at the moment that it may be slightly weaker than what the NHC is forecasting.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY, PWAT AND 700 MB RH FORECAST 00Z 21 JUL



ECMWF WIND SHEAR AND 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST

NHC FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/2100Z 28.7N 85.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 29.0N 86.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 29.3N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 29.6N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 29.6N 88.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 29.6N 89.8W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
72H 23/1800Z 29.5N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
96H 24/1800Z 29.5N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH…OVER WATER
120H 25/1800Z 29.4N 96.5W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND

NHC AND HURRTRACK GRAPHICS


WATCHES

STORM SURGE WATCH


5 DAY RAINFALL FORECAST

RIP CURRENTS FORECAST

I will continue to monitor Tropical Depression TWO for any significant changes to the forecast. 

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5 – 7 days.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)

PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.