Tropical Storm Fay came within about 4 mph of becoming the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2026. It peaked near 70 mph over the open northeastern Atlantic late Sunday, Sept. 20, before strong wind shear pulled it apart. By 5 a.m. EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center's Advisory 12 on Tropical Storm Fay placed the storm about 570 miles southwest of the Azores with 40 mph winds. The NHC said Fay was likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low later in the day.

With Fay's near miss, the Atlantic still had no hurricane as of Sept. 22. That is later than any first hurricane in records dating to 1851. Gizmodo reported that the previous latest first hurricane formed on Sept. 17, 1941. As Fay fades, forecasters are openly discussing whether 2026 could end with no Atlantic hurricanes at all, something only 1907 and 1914 are believed to have done.

For coastal households from Houston and Tampa to New York City and Boston, the question has practical weight. A record-quiet season does not guarantee a quiet fall, and the Atlantic season officially runs through Nov. 30.

A Narrow Window, Then Wind Shear

Fay formed quickly over the weekend southwest of the Azores, almost as far north and east as any Atlantic named storm on record in September. Local 10 hurricane specialist Michael Lowry wrote that the water there was at record warmth for the time of year, and a narrow window of light upper-level winds let Fay organize fast. The NHC first included the disturbance in its outlook Friday morning, only about 24 hours before it became a storm.

The window closed Monday. "Fay is feeling the effects of strong west-northwesterly wind shear tonight," NHC forecasters wrote in Discussion 11 on Fay, issued late Monday Eastern time. They added that nearly all of the storm's thunderstorms had been displaced well away from a fully exposed center, with dry air enveloping much of the system.

Lowry noted that major forecast models largely missed or downplayed Fay's development, a reminder that even strong forecast systems can misjudge storms that form outside the traditional tropical belt. Fay never threatened land, and no coastal watches or warnings were issued.

Nature World News previously reported that the season had passed the satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane. Before this year, the latest first hurricane since satellite monitoring began in 1966 had formed on Sept. 11, a mark set by Gustav in 2002 and matched by Humberto in 2013, according to CBS News. The 1941 mark from the full historical record has now fallen too. Early records relied heavily on ship reports and are less complete, so comparisons with 1907 and 1914 carry real uncertainty.

A Season Without Hurricanes Would Still Carry Risk

The Atlantic has produced six named storms in 2026: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard and Fay. None became a hurricane. Based on 1991 to 2020 data, an average season produces about 14 named storms and seven hurricanes. NOAA's seasonal outlook called for 7 to 13 named storms, including 2 to 6 hurricanes and 0 to 2 major hurricanes, CBS News reported. The season has not yet reached even the low end of that hurricane range.

September is normally the Atlantic's busiest month, and the first hurricane of an average season typically forms around Aug. 11. According to WUSF, only a handful of seasons, including 1905, 1907, 1914 and 1994, have had no hurricane form during September. As of Sunday, computer models showed no other major storms forming over the following two weeks.

The main driver is a very strong El Niño in the Pacific. It strengthens upper-level winds over the Atlantic that tilt and tear storms apart before they can build a strong core. WUSF noted that dry, stable air has also repeatedly hampered Atlantic systems, though meteorologists still debate why that dry air has been so persistent. These are seasonal influences, not guarantees about any single storm.

A hurricane-free season would not be a damage-free season. Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall near Johnson Bayou, Louisiana, close to the Texas border, on Sept. 1 with 60 mph winds, bringing heavy rain to southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. The Saffir-Simpson category measures wind only, so a weaker storm that stalls over a city can still cause serious flooding, rip currents and tornadoes.

Late-Season Odds and What Coastal Households Should Watch

The door remains open. Gizmodo reported that Washington Post meteorologist Ben Noll expects a relatively more conducive stretch into October, especially in the western Atlantic. Late-season storms often develop in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf, close to Florida, Cuba and Central America, which can leave short lead times for Miami, Tampa and the Gulf Coast.

Closer to the East Coast, Lowry flagged an area of low pressure expected to develop along a stalled front later this week. He wrote that it could produce a prolonged nor'easter-like event from North Carolina's Outer Banks to New England from Thursday through Saturday, with gusts above 40 mph, multiple cycles of coastal flooding and coastal erosion. He put the chance that the system becomes tropical at about 20 percent and said that outcome should not appreciably change the expected coastal impacts.

That is one forecaster's analysis, not an official warning. Residents from Norfolk and Ocean City to New York City and Boston should check their local National Weather Service office for coastal flood watches or advisories as the system develops.

For households, the reasonable step is to keep hurricane supplies in place through November rather than unpacking them early. Confirm your evacuation zone and keep important documents in a waterproof container. Check whether your homeowners policy covers flooding, since standard policies generally do not. Flood policies through the National Flood Insurance Program typically take 30 days to take effect, a gap that matters if a late storm develops quickly.

Fay's brief surge showed how quickly a storm can exploit a small opening, even in a hostile year. The newest fact is that 2026 now holds the record for the longest wait for a first Atlantic hurricane. The key uncertainty is whether October's somewhat friendlier pattern produces one before Nov. 30. The NHC's seven-day tropical weather outlook is where any new threat will appear first.

What Readers Want to Know

Did Tropical Storm Fay become a hurricane?

No. Fay peaked near 70 mph late Sunday, Sept. 20, just below the 74 mph hurricane threshold. By Tuesday morning, its winds had fallen to 40 mph, and the NHC expected it to become a post-tropical remnant low.

Is Fay a threat to the U.S. or other land areas?

No. Fay stayed over the open northeastern Atlantic, and the NHC listed no hazards affecting land.

What record has the 2026 season set?

No hurricane had formed as of Sept. 22, which is later than any first hurricane in records dating to 1851. The previous latest was Sept. 17, 1941. Records from before the satellite era are less complete.

Has the Atlantic ever gone a full season without a hurricane?

Only 1907 and 1914 are believed to have produced no Atlantic hurricanes, and both seasons came well before satellite monitoring.

Why has the Atlantic been so quiet?

A very strong El Niño has increased wind shear over the Atlantic, and dry, stable air has also weakened storms. Warm Atlantic water alone has not overcome those factors.

Can a hurricane still form this year?

Yes. The season runs through Nov. 30, and forecasters see somewhat more favorable conditions into October, especially in the western Atlantic.

Should coastal residents relax their hurricane plans?

No. Keep supplies and plans in place through November, and follow your local NWS office and county emergency management for any watches or warnings.