Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! 
DONATIONS ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
I will be out of the office Oct. 03, Oct. 06 and Oct. 7 for family events.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   9
TOTAL HURRICANES:         3
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

Tropical Storm IMELDA continues to slowly show signs of continued organization based on recent satellite loop imagery:
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA SATELLITE LOOP


As of the 2:00 P.M. intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on Tropical Storm IMELDA.  Note: Forecast discussion and guidance graphics are from the 12Z model runs and 11:00 a.m. update.
2:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 28
Location: 27.2N;77.3W
Moving: N 9 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb / 29.47 in.
Max sustained: 60 mph

NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/291459.shtml?
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/291742.shtmlTropical Storm Watches and Warnings have been issued for the following locations:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

NHC  GRAPHICS


RAINFALL FORECAST
FLASH FLOOD RISK OUTLOOK

RIP CURRENTS


Tropical Storm IMELDA was currently moving to the N.  Based on my analysis of updated forecast steering, Imelda should now follow the forecast track guidance, as ALL dynamic, statistical – dynamic, consensus, and hurricane forecast models are now in very tight agreement, with latest track guidance showing a very tight cluster.
TROPICAL STORM IMELDA 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z ATCF GUIDANCE

HURRICANE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE

As HUMBERTO moves closer to IMELDA, it will have an effect on the steering layer, reinforcing the weakness in the subtropical ridge.  Global model animations now indicate this forecast motion.  Based on this analysis, IMELDA should continue to a pretty much northward motion during the remainder of today, and early tomorrow, prior to making the hard turn to the east – northeast.  Based on this, I agree with the NHC forecast track.
NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP



Tropical Storm IMELDA is under some wind shear of around 20 – 25 kts, as the radial shear pattern is just a little off center from the center of the storm, hence the slow organization.  You can note however in satellite loop imagery, convection appears to be forming directly over the COC.
CIMSS RECENT WIND SHEAR

In addition, upper level outflow has become better established and although elongated, there are 2 very distinct outflow channels noted to the north and south of the center.  This should help offset the shear.
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS

Analysis of global models indicates wind shear to remain below 20 kts for the for at least the next 48 hours, as well as the updated SHIPS guidance. The ECMWF still indicates a radial shear pattern to remain during this period, however models have been off slightly in centering the pattern over the storm, based on the CIMSS shear map analyses.  However if decent outflow can remain established during the next 48 hours, IMELDA should continue her strengthening trend. 

Based on this, I currently agree with the NHC intensity forecast at the moment, however some of the intensity guidance models indicate IMELDA to intensify to a CAT 2 hurricane. The reasoning for this may be what I just learned today from the NHC.  As IMELDA begins to transition to extra-tropical, this is when the intensity gets to around 100 mph in the NHC forecast.  The NHC mentions a “sting jet”, which will allow for IMELDA to reach the intensity shown, and allow for the wind field to expand, prior to full transition.  I will post a graphic, and a link explaining this phenomenon.
GFS 700 MB FORECAST 60 HOURS (BLACK ARROW INDICATES STING JET)

STING JET ARTICLE LINK
https://www.severe-weather.eu/learnweather/severe-weather-theory/what-is-a-sting-jet-mk/
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

From the National Hurricane Center:
Imelda is also likely to get a intensity boost from a favorable trough interaction, which could enhance the winds along the cyclone’s northwestern flank, and a higher 85 kt peak is now shown during this time. This enhancement could evolve into a “sting jet” like feature as the system becomes extratropical.

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS