Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!
This forecast will start closer to home today.

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   10
TOTAL HURRICANES:         4
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

Based on analysis of the current run of the global models surface maps, an area of low pressure, possibly absorbing some energy from a Tropical Wave that is out in front of JERRY, is forecast to begin developing in approximately 48 hours IVO the SE Florida peninsula / Northern Bahamas.  Based on analysis of forecast wind shear maps, and thermal diagrams, this low should remain baroclinic in nature, as strong shear will remain in place over the low deriving energy from the shear, differences in moisture and temperature around the system, and very warm SST’s, as it develops and moves northward.  Though it begins as a cold core system, moving over the warms waters of the Gulfstream, though shear will remain in place, could allow the low to begin a transition to shallow warm core as noted in the thermal diagram, and the system could begin to try and take on some sub-tropical characteristics.  Regardless of whether this remains extratropical (baroclinic), or transitions to sub-tropical, I highly recommend residents along the Eastern Seaboard, especially from the Mid Atlantic area northward, monitor this situation closely.  This system if and when developed, could bring strong gale force winds to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast portions of the U.S., along with isolated heavy rainfall.  This, combined with the forecast of waves possibly 10 – 12 ft. near shore due to the easterly fetch, could cause some coastal flooding, and possibly some beach erosion.  Given there is no closed circulation as of yet, there is no guidance modeling to reference, so information is currently limited.

I will continue to monitor this situation very closely during the next 48 – 96 hours for any significant changes to forecast conditions , and if needed, will try to update as necessary.
ECMWF, GFS, AND CMC MSLP FORECAST MAPS



ECMWF SURFACE WIND FORECAST

ECMWF AND NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS CURRENT 7 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST


THERMAL DIAGRAM FORECAST

WAVEWATCH 3 SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST

CURRENT SST MAP

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm JERRY continues to move to the WNW, with a slight slowing in forward speed.  Although the COC is still slightly separated from the deep convection, it appears JERRY may be slowly trying to become better organized.  Pressure continues to slowly drop and is down to 999 mb from 1003 mb from 24 hours ago.
TROPICAL STORM JERRY SATELLITE LOOP


As of the 11:00 A.M. advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on Tropical Storm JERRY.  
11:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 09
Location: 15.9N;59.1W
Moving: WNW 18 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb / 29.50 in.
Max sustained: 65 mph

NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/091441.shtml
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/091439.shtml?

Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the following locations:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

NHC  GRAPHICS

RAINFALL FORECAST

RIP CURRENTS


Tropical Storm JERRY was currently moving to the WNW.  Based on my analysis of updated forecast steering, JERRY should follow the forecast track guidance, with a more NW motion beginning today, and a turn toward the north sometime tomorrow.  Given this, I agree with the NHC forecast track.
TROPICAL STORM JERRY 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

12Z ATCF GUIDANCE

HURRICANE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP

Wind shear has reduced over JERRY since yesterday.  This, along with the slower forward speed is most likely why JERRY appears to be trying to become slightly better organized in satellite imagery.  An upper outflow pattern is still noted with an outflow jet to the north and south of the system.  Based on this, JERRY could begin strengthening at a somewhat steady rate, as the outflow should offset some of the shear.
CIMSS RECENT WIND SHEAR

CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS

Based on analysis of the global models, indications are the shear pattern may again become somewhat favorable as a weak radial pattern briefly develops in about a 12 – 18 hours, with shear forecast to remain below 20 kts through the next 48 hours.  Current SHIPS diagnostics indicates this, and at approximately 60 – 72 hours from 12Z, an increase in wind shear is forecast, and JERRY should begin a weakening trend at that time.

Based on this, I agree with the NHC intensity forecast in that JERRY could attain the intensity prior to weakening, though most of the accurate intensity guidance keeps JERRY at 80 mph in the forecast.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

From the National Hurricane Center:

Elsewhere, I have no idea why, but the NHC has marked a large extratropical low and it is designated INVEST 96L.  This COULD transition to subtropical at sometime even though it is over only 20 – 21C SST’s.  This would be due to becoming a “warm seclusion”, as the system is currently attached to an occluded front at the center.  This will be no threat to the U.S.
NHC 7 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK (GTWO)

NORTH ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP

The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS