Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.

(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! 
DONATIONS ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

STORM W 2025 SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 15 – 17
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7 – 8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) UPDATED SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16
TOTAL HURRICANES:         8
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2025 HURRICANE SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS:   12*
TOTAL HURRICANES:         4
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3
* (11 TROPICAL…1 SUBTROPICAL)

The following is the list of storm names for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dexter Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry
Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

As we go through the season and storms are named, I will mark them in RED to indicate active, or already named systems.

Please use the following links for severe weather information:
SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO
As of the 11:00 A.M. advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Tropical Storm Lorenzo:
11:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 15
Location: 21.5N;44.1W
Moving: NNE 14 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb / 29.68 in.
Max sustained: 40 mph
LORENZO SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


LORENZO does not resemble a tropical system based on satellite imagery this morning, and I have no idea why it’s still being followed.  The NHC sites in the previous discussion, that LORENZO was still being sheared and this along with a combination of dry air was causing the system to be elongated and disorganized.  However, I feel the main reason for the current disposition of LORENZO is mainly dry air intrusion, which is causing the building convection to collapse, as recent shear indicates only 10 kts and SHIPS diagnostics only indicated 11 kts.  Based on the current and forecast conditions, LORENZO should remain at an intensity of 40 mph, and should dissipate by late this evening or tomorrow.  This will be my final update on LORENZO.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

LORENZO is moving toward the NNE.  Based on analysis of forecast steering, LORENZO should continue to follow the track guidance.
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST TRACK

Elsewhere, I continue to monitor the Tropical Wave over the EATL.  Based on visible satellite loop imagery, the center of the wave appeared to be approximately near 9.7N;26.7W earlier this morning.
EATL TROPICAL WAVE


The wave is producing disorganized and limited convection at the moment.
Based on analysis of global models (to which I prefer the ECMWF), forecast conditions are forecast to remain marginal to slightly marginal for development during the next 5 – 7 days.  I reference marginal, as the forecast from the global models indicates sufficient surface to mid level moisture, but fluctuating wind shear during that time in the forecast period.  However, IF this wave makes it into the Caribbean as has been suggested during the past 4 days, it appears this entity merges with the CAG  (Central American Gyre), based on my analysis of the 850 mb forecast maps.  At that time, the models indicate wind shear lessens, and a decent radial shear pattern begins to develop.  Analysis of the CIMSS wind shear map indicated the wave was under some shear about some 12 hours ago, which has allowed for the wave to become slightly tilted, based on analysis of 850 mb and 500 mb vorticity maps.
CIMSS 850 AND 500 MB VORTICITY


Forecast path should still be considered somewhat low confidence, although ensembles and formation guidance have been consistent at bringing this into the Caribbean.  Global models are still split on degree of development (intensity), if any, as this wave is just that, and does not have a well developed closed, LLC.  So the models do not have anything to ‘focus” on.  Once and if the system can develop a well defined LLC, THEN I will have a better and more accurate take on motion and future intensity.  Though these uncertainties still exist, I still recommend that residents of the Lesser Antilles continue to monitor the progress of this wave for any significant changes.
ECMWF, GFS, AND CMC MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST DAY 7 AND DAY 10






ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY



I will continue to monitor this situation closely during the next 96 – 120 hours

Elsewhere, ensemble models still indicate and have been consistent in the longer range showing an increased probability for tropical activity in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf  by day 12 in the forecast period.  This should be considered low confidence at this time, however they have been consistent and the MJO forecast still indicates we should be in the favorable phases for development.  We have just recently entered PHASE 1.  The following links explain how the ensemble members function:
https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FUG/Section+5+Forecast+Ensemble+%28ENS%29+-+Rationale+and+Construction

https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/10/12/difference-between-deterministic-and-ensemble-forecasts/
ECMWF MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST
The following links will connect you to the Excessive Rainfall probabilities and River Flood Outlook:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS