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PROTECT YOUR DNA WITH QUANTUM TECHNOLOGY
Orgo-Life the new way to the future Advertising by AdpathwayDisclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.
Good day everyone!
This is long and graphics intense.
If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.
The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES : 3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES: 1 – 2
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES: 1
MAJOR HURRICANES: 1
The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred
As of the 15Z (11:00 a.m.) NHC advisory, the following information was available on MAJOR HURRICANE ISAIAS:
11:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 09
Location: 27.7°N; 87.3W
Moving: NNE 16 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb / 28.32 in.
Max sustained: 120 mph
PLEASE FOLLOW STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FROM YOUR LOCAL NWS OFFICE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for… A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River
* Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL
* Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS
* East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL
* Suwannee River to Yankeetown, FL
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/091453.shtml?
ADVISO PUBLICO
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT4+shtml/091455.shtml?
LOCAL NWS HURRICANE PRODUCTS LINK (PLEASE CLICK FOR LOCAL STATEMENTS)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls_at4+shtml/091538.shtml?
The following is hurricane preparation information:
https://stormw.wordpress.com/2026/09/04/hurricane-preparedness-information-guide-issued-sep-04-2026-1235-p-m-est/
HURRICANE ISAIAS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
ISAIAS RADAR LOOP (LINKED)
Based on information in the NHC advisory, the system was moving NNE at 16 MPH. Based on analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps and current guidance which is now pretty much clustered, this motion should continue for approximately the next 6 hours prior to making a more northerly turn. Based on this, I currently agree with the NHC forecast track.
ATCF AND NHC TRACK GUIDANCE
NHC FORECAST TRACK
ISAIAS intensity forecast has been somewhat complex, based on exact actions of wind shear, upper outflow, and OHC.
However, analysis this morning has revealed that ISAIAS a little earlier this morning did pass over that warmer eddy of OHC (Ocean Heat Content) of 75 KJ/cm, which it exited just 3 – 4 hours ago. Analysis also indicated that the center of the hurricane is being affected by 40 – 45 kts of wind shear. However, based on analysis once again of upper level winds, and the hurricane is still moving fairly much in the direction of the shear, the upper level outflow is producing very strong upper level divergence. The most recent divergence value was noted at 60. A value of 30 is considered moderate to strong so basically, upper divergence is out of the park.The combination of these 2 factors will allow for very little to any impact from the wind shear. Along with the OHC, this has allowed for further intensification of ISAIAS, which is now a MAJOR hurricane on the Saffir – Simpson scale. This doesn’t imply that we blew the forecast. This means as I have stated many times, that it only takes some subtle changes in the atmospheric conditions for these things to occur, to which models will not pickup on until their next run period.
Based on analysis of the ECMWF, wind shear is forecast to increase up until landfall, and may not have an affect on ISAIAS until he begins moving directly due north. Dry air is forecast to increase in the 500 mb level not until approximately 6 hours prior to landfall. Based on this, it is possible ISAIAS could continue to intensify slightly, or maintain current intensity close to the point of landfall. Given any unforeseen changes in conditions, I agree with the NHC intensity forecast
CIMSS WIND SHEAR
UPPER LEVEL WINDS
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
CIMSS OHC
ADT WIND FIELD
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE WARNING AREA OF THE GULF COAST SHOULD BE COMPLETE
NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INIT 09/1500Z 27.7N 87.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 29.7N 86.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 32.1N 87.1W 55 KT 65 MPH…INLAND
36H 11/0000Z 34.2N 87.2W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 11/1200Z 36.5N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 12/0000Z 39.1N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 12/1200Z…DISSIPATED
KEY MESSAGES FROM NHC
The following are graphics from the NHC and from the HURRTRAK APP.
POTENTIAL RAINFALL
The following are storm surge estimate values from the SLOSH data program for ISAIAS making landfall as a CATEGORY 2 hurricane and as a CATEGORY 3 hurricane based on a forward speed of 15 mph, and at high tide and mean tide. Values are plus or minus 20% depending on strength. So for instance, a flag of 6 feet let’s say, could have a range from 4.8 ft for the low end of the category, to 7.2 ft for the top end of the category.
ISAIAS SLOSH DISPLAY CAT 2 MEAN AND HIGH TIDE
ISAIAS SLOSH DISPLAY CAT 3 MEAN AND HIGH TIDE
Elsewhere, I do not expect any development during the next 5 days.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)
PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER
The Mechanism: The right rear entrance region features an ageostrophic wind component that pulls air northward toward the jet core, creating massive horizontal divergence aloft. [1, 2]
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