Good day everyone!
We currently have Tropical Storm FAY and now Tropical Storm GONZALO. Since these currently do not pose a threat to the U.S. or Caribbean, this synopsis will focus on the current developing storm system that will affect the Mid Atlantic region.

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 7
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:     0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred

GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP

T.S. FAY, AND T.S. GONZALO SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

The NHC does not indicate any tropical cyclone formation during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)

The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves
06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

The following is the ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probabilities forecast during the next 5 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 120 HOURS

EAST COAST STORM IR AND VIS SATELLITE LOOP


Analysis this morning of the ECMWF global model and current satellite loop imagery indicates development of a closed low off the U.S. east coast near 36.3N;70.9W. Though the system is designated as a shallow warm core, and satellite loop imagery appears to indicate this looks sub-tropical in nature, it is currently asymmetric and attached to a frontal boundary as noted in surface analysis, hence it is not currently considered subtropical. The shallow warm core may be due to what is called a warm core seclusion. Eventually, based on the MSLP animation from the ECMWF, this appears to become more symmetric and consolidated before coming ashore. The forecast hasn’t really changed, with analysis of TPW (surface moisture) indicating limited surface moisture, with relative humidity values (700 mb – 500 mb) indicating favorable mid level moisture remaining with the “center”, with wind shear currently over the system. By early Sunday, the shear pattern is forecast to briefly become somewhat more favorable with a reduction in shear and a weak, semi radial flow pattern which may remain for approximately 18 – 24 hours. Based on analysis of the recent thermal diagram, the low is forecast to become a symmetric warm core low. Based on this, I feel this may try to become purely subtropical before coming ashore.
Subtropical cyclone:
There are two definitions currently used for subtropical cyclones depending on their location. Across the north Atlantic and southwest Indian Ocean, they require some central convection fairly near the center surrounding a warming core existing in the mid-levels of the troposphere. Across the eastern half of the northern Pacific however, they require a mid-tropospheric cyclone to be cut off from the main belt of the westerlies and with only a weak surface circulation. Subtropical cyclones have wider wind fields with the maximum sustained winds located further from the center than typical tropical cyclones, and have no weather fronts linked into their center.

Regardless, portions of the coastal NEUS area may experience some localized coastal flooding, minor beach erosion, and possible localized power outages. Various watches, warnings and advisories have been issued by the NWS and can be accessed in the map near the end of this synopsis.

The model at the moment indicates forecast sustained surface winds of mid grade tropical storm intensity (45 – 55 mph) with gusts of (60 – 70 mph), and significant wave height along portions of the east coast on the order of around 8 – 10 ft., and 14 – 16+ ft offshore.

I will continue to monitor this for the next 72 – 96 hours
RECENT THERMAL DIAGRAM

12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 120 HOURS

EAST COAST MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST

ECMWF SURFACE WINDS FORECAST ANIMATION

SHEAR FORECAST


WAVEWATCH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST

I will continue to monitor the situation and will try to have another update tomorrow.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.