Good day everyone!

If anyone has any questions regarding tropical systems, please feel free to email me at the email address at the end of the synopsis. Please title it WEATHER QUESTION.

The following changes have been made. The forecast center is still closed on Sunday, and will be closed on Saturday as well (unless there is a threat from a tropical system). Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center for severe weather information.
SPC LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

These forecasts can be lengthy, however I want to always give a full perspective on the tropics.
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9 – 11
TOTAL HURRICANES :      3 – 4
MAJOR HURRICANES:      1 – 2

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2026 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 6
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:     0

The following is the list of storm names for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Storm names will be marked in RED for active and already named systems with subtropical systems marked in PURPLE:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias
Josephine Kyle Leah Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky
Wilfred

Satellite loop imagery indicates about the same as yesterday over the Atlantic, with dry air being the dominant feature.
GOES 19 ATLANTIC IR AND WV SATELLITE LOOP


The NHC has increased the development of the INVEST 90L near Africa to a MEDIUM (40%) probability during the next 7 days. The NHC has also re-circled “Tropical Depression” FAY
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)


The NHC Surface Analysis indicates the location of Tropical Waves
00Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS IMAGE

The ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation probability forecast is indicating pretty much the same probabilities for cyclone formation during the next 5 days.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS


72 – 120 HOURS

As far as “FAY”, I am really not looking for re-development as the system is currently surrounded by, and is sitting in the middle of dry air.

Analysis this morning of the ECMWF global model indicates development of a closed low off the U.S. east coast, by late Thu. / early Fri., and eventually become more symmetric and consolidated. The area is currently associated with a trough of low pressure currently attached to a limited warm frontal boundary. Analysis of TPW (surface moisture), relative humidity values (700 mb – 500 mb), and wind shear forecast indicate limited surface moisture, but ample values of mid level moisture with wind shear over the system. Wind shear is forecast to remain over the “center” of the system for the next 48 – 72 hours. By around 96 hours in the forecast period, the shear pattern is forecast to briefly become somewhat more favorable with a reduction and a weak, semi radial flow. Based on analysis of the recent thermal diagram, the area has been designated as a shallow warm core low. My current thinking with this is, the energy currently east of FL. and over the Bahamas will be absorbed by the low to the north located east of SC. Once we get a closed and consolidated low pressure system, this could have a rapid feedback moment. Though forecast surface maps indicate a frontal attachment remains, based on a forecast reduction in wind shear, and analysis of forecast 700 mb temperatures, should this shed the front, this may at the last moment try to transition to subtropical. I should have a clearer picture in about 48 – 72 hours . Regardless, portions of the coastal NEUS area could experience some coastal flooding and minor beach erosion.

The model at the moment indicates forecast sustained surface winds of mid grade tropical storm intensity (45 – 50 mph), and significant wave height along the east coast on the order of around 8 – 10 ft., and 14 – 16+ ft offshore.

I will continue to monitor this for the next 72 – 96 hours
CONUS SATELLITE LOOP

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST 120 HOURS

EAST COAST MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST

ECMWF SURFACE WINDS FORECAST ANIMATION

ECMWF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST

Elsewhere, a Tropical Wave that has exited Africa has been designated INVEST 90L:
INVEST 90L IR SATELLITE LOOP

As of the 12Z (8:00 A.M. EDT) ATCF BTK report, the following was available on INVEST 90L
8:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 23
Location: 9.3°N; 16.5°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb / 29.80 in.
Max sustained: 30 mph

Current analysis indicated a partial radial shear pattern, and partial upper level outflow at 200 mb over the system. The ECMWF forecast indicates fairly favorable conditions to remain in place for the next 48 hours, before the conditions begin to slowly become unfavorable, with an increase in wind shear. Surface and 700 – 500 mb moisture are forecast to remain favorable during that time however. Based on this, this wave may very well become a short lived depression, if forecast conditions come to fruition and stay with the wave.

This wave however, should not become a threat for the U.S or the Caribbean, and is forecast to head toward the Cape Verde islands. I will continue to monitor the area.
INVEST 90L 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html

Please click on the following map to access the current statements, advisories and warnings from the NWS. Once you click the map, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS RADAR

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)WUNDERGROUND RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK FOR UPDATES)PRECIPITATION TYPE (CLICK TO ACCESS ANIMATION FEATURE)CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)

You may direct any questions to me by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: [email protected]

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST / SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
CoCoRAHS OBSERVER

About West Central Florida Hurricane and Severe Weather Forecast Center

I am a Meteorologist, Hurricane Specialist and Severe Weather Specialist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season, severe weather forecasts during and off season, as well as winter weather and coastal storm forecasts. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship at FOX 13 News, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main clients at the time being three different Coast Guard Commands.